2:16 Stratford
This Class 4 novices' hurdle at Stratford over 2m0f70y on good to firm ground features a field of six where experience and proven ability around the track carry significant weight. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top pick on 60, with the next three clustered between 51 and 48, suggesting a race that may revolve around a small group of principals rather than a wide-open contest. Dropping in class looks a positive for the selection while several others step up in grade or face questions over trip, ground or track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With every runner in the field usually held up and producing effort late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint from the final bend. The key question is which horse can quicken most effectively off what is expected to be a modest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Square d'Alboni KTB Selection60/100
Square d'Alboni is a smart performer who looked the part when winning here over this trip on his only previous visit to Stratford. Dropping back from 2m4f should suit after a laboured effort last time, and his record on good to firm is a further plus. He carries an official rating of 118 and arrives with recent form figures of 7-1127. The combination of Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton operates at a solid level around this track, the trainer showing a 22% strike rate at Stratford from 370 runs and the jockey a 24% record from 312 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late, which fits the anticipated tactical nature of the race.
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2Prince Vinny51/100
Prince Vinny has shown modest form in three starts, finishing no better than sixth. He has twice tried today's trip without success and remains lightly raced with only a small sample to go on. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Stratford while Ben Jones posts an 18% record here. His trainer and jockey combination shows a 17% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up with limited evidence, he is unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form on record. With form figures of 686- he remains open to improvement but has plenty to find on what he has shown so far.
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3Drumstick48/100
Drumstick has shown only modest form in 18 starts and arrives off the back of a poor effort last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question while this is also his first run at Stratford. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate here from a big sample of 270 runs and the jockey matches that figure from his smaller number of rides. Stepping up in class, he has an official rating that reflects his modest level and recent form of 8-. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and has a 1-5 record on good to firm.
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4Arcturus Flame48/100
Arcturus Flame arrives off the back of a recent win and has already shown he can handle this trip. He is placed on good to firm without winning on it yet and the yard posts a solid 19 percent strike rate at Stratford. Both trainer and jockey records here are below the course average though and he has never run at the track before. With only one run on the board his form of 1 must be viewed positively in a race lacking depth. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he represents a trainer and jockey combination that strikes at 23% overall.
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5Red Metal47/100
Red Metal showed promise when winning on debut over this trip and has since mixed placed form with a pulled-up effort. He has already run well here without winning and the yard has a solid record at Stratford. The jockey's own strike-rate at the track is modest from a decent number of rides and with only three career starts overall the form must be treated with caution.
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6Lady of The Isles45/100
Lady of The Isles has shown only modest form in ten runs and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m, which asks a fresh question of her. She has failed to win or place in six runs on good to firm ground. The trainer holds a 3% strike rate from 89 runs at Stratford while the jockey is operating at 9% from 192 rides here.
KTB verdict
Square d'Alboni stands out as the KTB Selection. He looked the part when winning here over this trip on his only previous visit to Stratford, dropping back from 2m4f should suit after a laboured effort last time, and his record on good to firm is a further plus. The trainer and jockey both operate at a solid level around this track. His main dangers are likely to come from Arcturus Flame, who arrives off the back of a recent win and has already shown he can handle this trip, and the more experienced Red Metal who has already run well here.
KTB Selection Square d'Alboni
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Square d'Alboni | 6/5 | Bet365 |
| Prince Vinny | 22/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Drumstick | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Arcturus Flame | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Red Metal | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady of The Isles | 80/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:16 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this course and distance?
Square d'Alboni won here over this trip on his only previous visit to Stratford.
How many of these runners are proven on good to firm ground?
Square d'Alboni (1 win from 1), Drumstick (1 win from 5, 1 placed) and Arcturus Flame (placed 2 of 3) have experience on good to firm; Prince Vinny, Red Metal and Lady of The Isles are unproven or have failed to place on it.
What does the pace shape suggest about race tactics?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Stratford among those represented?
Emma Lavelle has a 20% strike rate at Stratford from 215 runs.
Which principals are stepping up or dropping in class?
Square d'Alboni is dropping in class, while Drumstick and Lady of The Isles are stepping up in class.
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