3:20 Tramore
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle over 2m4f73y at Tramore on yielding ground brings together a field of seven with a mix of experience levels and unproven stamina. The KTB Fit ratings identify Ronnie's Rascal as the clear top pick on 62, ahead of a cluster of rivals rated in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining a race where proven placed form and yard strength will be key. Most of the field arrive without experience of yielding ground, and the race lacks depth at this level.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Baymount's front-running style means he is likely to be allowed an uncontested lead from the outset. With the majority of the field, including the top four principals, tending to be held up and producing their efforts late, the race should unfold with a clear gap back to the pack. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back on this step up in trip for several runners, or if one of the closers can muster a strong enough finishing kick on yielding ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ronnie's Rascal KTB Selection62/100
Ronnie's Rascal brings useful ability having shown steady progress and finished a solid third last time out. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of the four-year-old, who is usually held up and produces his effort late. W. P. Mullins holds a 30% strike rate at Tramore from 697 runs while Brian Hayes has a 12% strike rate at the track from 312 rides. The horse is unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record, yet his overall profile and the yard's record here make him the one to beat. He carries an official rating of 104 and his recent form reads 36-423.
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2Kilbree Nouvella54/100
Kilbree Nouvella has shown very little so far, with a string of pulled-ups followed by a tailed-off effort on her only completed start. The six-year-old offers almost no reliable evidence on which to judge her, and the trip has already failed to spark any improvement. She is usually held up with limited evidence, and both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Tramore for any meaningful read. The yard's 33% strike rate at the track comes from a tiny sample of just three runs, while the jockey's 5% strike rate is from 105 rides. She remains completely unproven on yielding ground with no course form.
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3Clarnagh Maid53/100
Clarnagh Maid is a useful mare who has shown steady placed form without winning. She has been consistent at this trip in the past though without managing to land a race, and her overall profile suggests she is up to winning races at this level. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Gordon Elliott has a solid 15% strike rate at Tramore from 513 runs while Jack Kennedy is aboard with a 12% strike rate from 172 rides at the track. She carries an official rating of 103, is unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record. Her recent form reads 43020-.
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4Blue Trix51/100
Blue Trix has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then third without suggesting she is ready to win. The step up in trip is an unknown that could suit or expose the five-year-old further. She represents W. P. Mullins, who has a strong 30% strike rate at Tramore from a huge sample, with Paul Townend in the saddle boasting a 28% strike rate at the track from 245 rides. The mare is unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record. Her recent form reads 73.
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5Tutu Twist49/100
Tutu Twist has shown consistent placed form in three starts over hurdles, finishing runner-up on return last time. The five-year-old steps up in trip today having already been placed at this distance, though the small sample means his stamina is still unproven. Henry de Bromhead has a solid 15% strike rate at Tramore from 585 runs while Darragh O'Keeffe is aboard. He is placed on his only start on yielding ground and is unproven at the course.
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6Baymount44/100
Baymount has shown some ability on his last two starts with placed efforts but his overall form is patchy and the recent pull-up suggests he can be inconsistent. The five-year-old steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. Anthony Mullins has a solid 13% strike rate at Tramore from 285 runs while Danny Mullins rides. He is unproven on yielding ground and has no course form.
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7Shing Shang Lily42/100
Shing Shang Lily is a useful mare who ran creditably when third at this trip on her penultimate start and now has the benefit of first-time headgear. Dropping back from 2m6f looks a positive on the balance of her placed effort at 2m4f, though her only previous visit to Tramore produced a modest seventh. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track from 30 runs adds a note of caution. She has one run on yielding ground without winning or placing and carries an official rating of 95.
KTB verdict
Ronnie's Rascal stands out as the KTB Selection. He has shown steady progress culminating in a solid third last time out, and the Mullins yard's 30% strike rate at Tramore from a huge sample gives him every chance to take this despite the step up in trip and lack of experience on yielding ground. Clarnagh Maid brings the next strongest profile as a consistent placed performer who looks up to winning at this level, with the Elliott-Kennedy combination adding further interest. Blue Trix cannot be entirely dismissed given the powerful yard and jockey combination, while the remainder of the field largely lack the same level of encouragement on what looks a straightforward pace setup for the lone leader.
KTB Selection Ronnie's Rascal
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Tramore results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Baymount, whose run-style is to tend to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the field have previous experience of yielding ground?
Two: Tutu Twist is placed on his only start on yielding, while Shing Shang Lily has one run on yielding without placing.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Tramore in this race?
W. P. Mullins with a 30% strike rate from 697 runs, shared by both Ronnie's Rascal and Blue Trix.
Which runner has the benefit of first-time headgear?
Shing Shang Lily.
What is the highest official rating in the field?
Ronnie's Rascal on 104.
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