2:47 Cork
This 2m4f100y Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle at Cork on good ground features a field of eight with limited depth and experience. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, headed by Outlaw Thief on 52 and Our Sara on 50, reflecting a race where most runners bring modest form or question marks over trip, ground or overall ability. With the pace shape indicating no obvious leader, the contest is set to be tactical and steadily run, placing emphasis on horses that can be handy and handle a race that may lack early pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay dividends. Several runners, including Our Sara, Conor'salwaysright, Martymill, Square Jasmin and Ruled By The Sun, are usually held up and produce their efforts late, which could leave them with plenty to do if the tempo remains modest. The key question is whether any horse can seize an advantageous position early or whether the race will develop into a test of positioning and timing in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Outlaw Thief KTB Selection52/100
Outlaw Thief has shown very little so far with a pulled-up effort and two modest finishes from three starts. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run in the last year. Trainer Paul Stephen Kiely has an 8% strike rate from 37 runs at Cork while jockey Cian Quirke is operating at 7% from 84 rides here. The combination's trainer-jockey record stands at 3/46 with an A/E of 0.95. His recent form reads P5-9 and he remains unproven on good ground with no course form on record. As the KTB Selection he is taken to capitalise on a drop in class in a race that lacks strength in depth.
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2Our Sara50/100
Our Sara has shown little so far with form of 4-9883 and only six career runs. The yard posts a 6% strike rate from 16 runs at Cork while the jockey is on 6% from 17 rides here. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose going preferences remain unknown from such a light record. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Our Sara could be suited by a steadily-run race though the trainer-jockey record stands at 0/21 with an A/E of 0.00. Recent form offers little encouragement and the combination will need to find improvement on this surface and distance.
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3Conor'salwaysright46/100
Conor'salwaysright is a lightly raced 4-year-old with a win on good ground from his only start this term. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Cork from a big sample tempers expectations, although jockey Darragh O'Keeffe holds an 11% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he has shown ability on his preferred surface but the yard's record at Cork stands at 4% with an A/E of 0.61. Recent form reads 51 and he remains without course experience.
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4Nameyourgame46/100
Nameyourgame is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just two completed starts and a pulled-up effort to go with them. The small sample makes any firm read on his ability risky, though the yard's solid 15% strike-rate at Cork offers some encouragement. He steps up markedly in trip today and the going remains an unknown. Jockey Mr R Sugrue is yet to strike at Cork from three rides while the trainer's record at the venue stands at 15% with an A/E of 1.1. Recent form reads 3P89- and he will need to improve markedly on what he has shown to date.
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5Martymill44/100
Martymill has shown steady improvement this year and ran to a useful level when winning at this trip last time out. He acts on good ground and has been placed both starts at this distance though he is not yet fully exposed. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Cork while the jockey is still seeking his first winner here from 23 rides. Usually held up, his recent form reads -62613.
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6Square Jasmin41/100
Square Jasmin has shown only modest form in two starts, finishing fourth both times including on this track. The yard has a poor record at Cork and the lightly-raced profile means there is not much else to go on. Jockey Donagh Meyler has a modest 6% strike rate here from a big sample of rides. Recent form reads 44 and he is usually held up.
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7The Bosses Order39/100
The Bosses Order is a debutant with no racecourse experience. Trainer and jockey both have very limited data at Cork so their local effectiveness is unknown. Assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Recent form is blank and the yard's record at Cork stands at 0%.
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8Ruled By The Sun39/100
Ruled By The Sun has shown very little in four starts to date and his recent form of 7-7P0 offers no encouragement. The yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Cork from 56 runs yet the 7 lb claimer is still seeking his first success from 14 rides here. Trip looks a fresh question after one unplaced effort at this distance. Usually held up, he remains unproven at the trip on good ground.
KTB verdict
Outlaw Thief is the KTB Selection in a maiden hurdle that lacks real strength in depth. His ability remains modest on the bare form but the step up in trip may unlock improvement in a race where the majority of the field bring significant question marks over trip, ground or overall level. The selection can take advantage of a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay. Main dangers are Martymill, who showed useful form when winning at this trip last time, and the progressive lightly-raced types Conor'salwaysright and Nameyourgame, though the latter pair step up markedly in distance. Our Sara may improve for the trip but has shown little to date.
KTB Selection Outlaw Thief
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cork results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cork racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip and has a yard with a 15% strike rate at Cork?
Nameyourgame steps up markedly in trip today and the yard has a 15% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 1.1 from 33 runs.
Who is the only horse in the field with a win on good ground this season?
Conor'salwaysright has a win on good ground from his only start this term.
Which runner has shown steady improvement and won at this trip last time out?
Martymill has shown steady improvement this year and ran to a useful level when winning at this trip last time out.
What is the trainer and jockey strike rate at Cork for the KTB Selection Outlaw Thief?
Trainer Paul Stephen Kiely has an 8% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 1.29 from 37 runs while jockey Cian Quirke has a 7% strike rate with an A/E of 0.86 from 84 rides.
How many of the field are described as usually held up?
Our Sara, Conor'salwaysright, Martymill, Square Jasmin and Ruled By The Sun are all described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
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