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Trainer profile

Paul Stephen Kiely

164 runners in the last 5 seasons · 26 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 9 days ago 92% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2022
8–164
Wins / Runs
4.9%
Strike rate
n=164
22 (13%)
Placed
0.98
Fair A/E
n=164 · 0.79 incl. margin
−79.00
£1 level stake
n=164 at SP · −48.2%
£89,969
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (87 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 164 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 6.9%
The read

The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (11.4%, n=35) and on Good going (9.8%, n=51). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 30 runners, 4.9pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−1.5
n=29 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+9.4
n=7 · A/E 4.61 · £1 +14.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.9
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
20%+15.1
n=10 · A/E 3.33 · £1 +5.50
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.9%+2.0
n=87 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −31.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break 11.4% vs 4.9% · n=35
On Good going 9.8% vs 4.9% · n=51
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 4.9% · n=30
Over 1m5f – 2m 8% vs 4.9% · n=50
Over 2m5f – 3m 2.3% vs 4.9% · n=44
With claiming riders up 6.9% vs 4.9% · n=87
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 115 7 6.1% −38.00
Chase 28 0 0% −28.00
Flat 13 1 7.7% −5.00
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 63 2 3.2% −45.50
Good 51 5 9.8% +3.50
Good to Soft 30 0 0% −30.00
Heavy 20 1 5% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 31 2 6.5% −6.00
Wexford 26 2 7.7% −9.50
Tramore 23 1 4.3% −13.00
Clonmel 15 0 0% −15.00
Kilbeggan 9 0 0% −9.00
Limerick 9 0 0% −9.00
Tipperary 9 0 0% −9.00
Thurles 8 0 0% −8.00
Gowran Park 5 1 20% +3.00
Listowel 5 0 0% −5.00
Sligo 4 1 25% +0.50
Killarney 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Navan 3 0 0% −3.00
Punchestown 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 1.40 +0.50
2nd–3rd fav 12 0 0% 0.00 −12.00
4th–6th fav 43 7 16.3% 2.39 +37.50
7th+ in betting 105 0 0% 0.00 −105.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
90.2% completed · 143 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 28 92.9% 0 1 1 0 0
Hurdle 115 89.6% 0 2 10 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Inchiquin Star (IRE)from David Marnane · then Terence O'Brien 31 4 6 23 Nov 25
Thedancingfarrier (IRE) 21 2 4 6 Sep 24
Nashville Notions (IRE) 13 1 1 13 Aug 26
Lady Nightingale (IRE)then Declan Queally 12 0 2 2 Oct 25
Kalnoo (IRE)from P M Hurley 11 0 3 5 Sep 25
Native Song (IRE) 9 0 1 28 May 25
Lily Milan (IRE) 8 0 0 27 May 26
Femme Magnifique (IRE)from W P Mullins · then David Harry Kelly 8 0 1 28 Feb 26
Ladybela (GB) 7 0 0 24 Jul 25
Rose Mahler (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 6 0 3 5 Aug 22
Black Soul (IRE)from John E & Thomas Kiely · then Conor Houlihan 5 1 1 22 Oct 25
Great Entirely (IRE) 4 0 0 3 Jul 26
All 26 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 26 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John E & Thomas Kiely (2); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Conor Houlihan (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00150770110700
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderCian Quirke
29% of all rides
6.4% SR · A/E 1.18
RiderRWSR£1
Cian Quirke 47 3 6.4% −20.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
11
Archived wins
£126k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 3 wins
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — County Wexford Vintners Federation Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Wexford · Oct 2024
£7,080
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — Tom Murphy Mercedes Benz Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Tramore · Aug 2023
£6,785
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — Robert Grace Live After Racing June 2nd Handicap Gowran Park · May 2025
£6,785
Notable horses
Inchiquin Star (IRE) Thedancingfarrier (IRE) Chenery (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE) Black Soul (IRE) Inchiquin High (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mount Nelson (GB) 12.9% · 4–31
Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,257 runs since 2008 (538 horses).
Dansant (GB) 9.5% · 2–21
Progeny have won 7.9% of 541 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.9% from 109.
Milan (GB) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,843 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Pillar Coral (GB) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 4.9% of 287 runs since 2008 (48 horses).
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 223 · newest first

The latest 50 of 223 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 March 2016 to 11 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Outlaw Thief (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 80/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Outlaw Thief (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 200/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 14/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Cottage Autism Network Handicap Hurdle (Div II)24f · Good · 14 ran 6th 20/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Great Entirely (IRE)J: Dylan O'Connor Shamrock Enterprises Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 7th 33/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Great Entirely (IRE)J: Mr E P O'Brien Old Harbour Bar Tullamore (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 22/1
05 Jun 26 Clonmel Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Paul Kavanagh Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22.5f · Good · 15 ran 12th 16/1
28 May 26 Limerick Great Entirely (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Daredevil Events Adrenaline Stunt Circus Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 18 ran PU 25/1
27 May 26 Wexford Lily Milan (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Wexford Harbour Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 9th 16/1
16 May 26 Wexford Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Ambrex Switchgear Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 12/1
10 Apr 26 Wexford Great Entirely (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 6th 40/1
05 Apr 26 Cork Lily Milan (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche O'Flynn Motors Mallow Mares Maiden Hurdle19f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 40/1
31 Mar 26 Limerick Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Party Time Mares Handicap Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 14 ran 5th 50/1
19 Mar 26 Cork Lily Milan (IRE)J: Anna McGuinness William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 12/1
19 Mar 26 Cork Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Mr S P Queally Gentlemen's League Fegentri World Championship (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle24f · Yielding · 11 ran UR 22/1
28 Feb 26 Navan Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Balreask Bar, Restaurant & Guest Accommodation Mares Handicap Chase20.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 16/1
05 Feb 26 Thurles Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Racing Again On The 19th February Handicap Chase18f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 20/1
18 Jan 26 Thurles Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Carey Glass Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade 2)21f · Yielding · 6 ran 6th 100/1
01 Jan 26 Tramore Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke SIS Supporting Irish Racing Rated Novice Chase16f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 8/1
02 Dec 25 Clonmel Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Next Race Meeting January 8th Novice Handicap Chase18.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 3rd 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Stephen Kiely's strike rate?
Paul Stephen Kiely has won 8 of 164 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Stephen Kiely do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Paul Stephen Kiely in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Stephen Kiely's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 164 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).