2:27 Redcar
This Class 3 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f at Redcar on good ground features a field of seven juveniles where experience and proven ability carry significant weight. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by From Afar on 59, with Woollahra just behind on 57, indicating a race where the principals hold the aces but the unknowns cannot be entirely dismissed. From Afar brings a recent 6f maiden success to the table while stepping up in class and trip, setting the standard against rivals with limited exposure.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, which should play to those capable of racing close to the pace or producing a well-timed challenge from just off it. Woollahra is the most likely to race prominently, while the three held-up types — From Afar, Trapped Goddess and Cowgirl — will be looking to pick up the pieces in the latter stages. The key question is whether the extra furlong will suit From Afar, who was previously beaten over 7f, or whether the drop back in trip will benefit Woollahra after her 1m run.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1From Afar KTB Selection59/100
From Afar is a fair performer who won a 6f maiden on this ground last time and now steps up in trip. The extra furlong looks an open question having been beaten when tried at 7f previously. Haggas has a strong 25% strike-rate at Redcar while Fallon is aboard. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 23% strike rate with an A/E of 0.95 and positive LSP of +£40.77. With an official rating of 79 and recent form figures of 61 she holds the highest KTB Fit Score of 59. Drawn in stall 1, she is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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2Woollahra57/100
Woollahra shaped with promise when fourth on debut over this trip before running creditably when third over 1m last time. A fair performer on the evidence of two runs she now drops back in trip which looks a sensible move. The yard have a solid 20% strike rate at Redcar from a small sample. The trainer and jockey show a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 1.73. With an official rating of 76 and recent form figures of 43 she is rated just behind the selection on a KTB Fit Score of 57. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she is drawn in stall 7 and remains unproven on good ground.
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3Trapped Goddess52/100
Trapped Goddess showed promise when second on debut over this trip. The form is hard to weigh up given she has only raced once and the small sample makes it impossible to be confident about the going or any improvement. Hugo Palmer has a solid 15% strike-rate at Redcar while David Probert's record at the track is not supplied. The trainer and jockey combination records a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 1.08 and positive LSP of +£55.89. Rated with a KTB Fit Score of 52 she is held up in her races and is drawn in stall 4.
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4Capricious Star49/100
Capricious Star is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 11% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample. The 2-year-old is by Starspangledbanner out of a useful mare who produced several winners, including a couple at this trip, and was sold for 52,000 euros as a yearling. With only pedigree and trainer stats to go on the picture remains hazy at this stage. The trainer and jockey show a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.72. Rated with a KTB Fit Score of 49 she has no course win on record.
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5Cowgirl47/100
Cowgirl was well beaten on her only start so far. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Redcar from 49 runs. Everything else remains unknown given just the one run and the very low data confidence. Usually held up, she has a KTB Fit Score of 47.
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6Sax Symbol46/100
Sax Symbol showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Redcar from 80 runs. With just one run on the clock and too few runs to judge the going, this remains very much an unknown. Usually held up, she has a KTB Fit Score of 46.
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7Late Night Show42/100
Late Night Show showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over this trip. The small sample makes it hard to gauge whether she will improve or handle today's going. Trainer K R Burke has an 11% strike rate from 421 runs at Redcar while jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin has no supplied record at the track. Usually races handily, she has a KTB Fit Score of 42.
KTB verdict
From Afar is the KTB Selection. She sets a clear standard as a fair performer with a recent 6f maiden win on this ground and an official rating of 79, backed by the strong Redcar record of William Haggas. The extra furlong is not guaranteed to suit but the muddling pace should allow her to come from off the pace with Cieren Fallon in the saddle. Woollahra is the most obvious danger after two promising runs and a sensible drop back in trip, while Trapped Goddess and the newcomer Capricious Star add further interest in a race where experience is at a premium.
KTB Selection From Afar
This is the narrative read of the 2:27 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the extra furlong represent an open question for From Afar?
Having been beaten when tried at 7f previously.
Why is the drop back in trip viewed as a sensible move for Woollahra?
After running creditably when third over 1m last time.
Why is it difficult to assess Trapped Goddess with confidence?
She has only raced once, the form is hard to weigh up and the small sample makes it impossible to be confident about the going or any improvement.
What is the main positive for Capricious Star?
Pedigree from a useful mare who produced several winners including a couple at this trip.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
It is muddling and tactical with no obvious front-runner, which should suit those ridden close to the pace.
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