What is Jack Nicholls's strike rate?

Jack Nicholls has won 76 of 632 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jack Nicholls do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 9 wins from 40 rides (22.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jack Nicholls ride most for?

K R Burke, with 143 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.6%).

What is Jack Nicholls's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 631 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jack Nicholls

632 rides in the last 5 seasons · 397 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 18 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2022

76–632

Wins / Runs

12%

Strike rate

n=632

193 (31%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=631 · 0.86 incl. margin

−199.00

£1 level stake

n=632 at SP · −31.5%

£1.16m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (95 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 632 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 34.8% when favourite K R Burke: 12.6% from 143 LTO winners: 20% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (22.5%, n=40), clear of the rider's 12% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=95, Fair A/E 1.16), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=102, Fair A/E 0.88). K R Burke supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.6%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well off a 8-14-day break (18.1%, n=149). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.4% over 42 rides, 9.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 2: Fair A/E 0.63 across 65 rides (4.6% strike, −17.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2026, £199,990). The standout partner of the record: Hurt You Never (IRE) — 6 wins from 22 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.8%−1.2

n=397 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −155.53

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20%+8.0

n=95 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −13.94

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.5%−6.5

n=55 · A/E 0.76 · £1 +0.50

When favourite

34.8%

n=69 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −4.05

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.6%−0.4

n=571 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −189.35

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.9%−7.1

n=102 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −41.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

100%+88.0

n=2 · A/E 9.50 · £1 +16.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Hamilton 22.5% vs 12% · n=40

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 12% · n=95

With Iain Jardine 21.2% vs 12% · n=52

Off a 61-180-day break 2.4% vs 12% · n=42

In Class 2 4.6% vs 12% · n=65

Off a 8-14-day break 18.1% vs 12% · n=149

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.9% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 181 28 15.5% −7.08

Standard (AW) 178 16 9% −90.56

Good to Firm 136 21 15.4% −35.26

Good to Soft 81 8 9.9% −23.35

Soft 42 3 7.1% −28.75

Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 65 4 6.2% −28.67

Wolverhampton (AW) 58 6 10.3% −34.01

York 40 2 5% −24.00

Hamilton 40 9 22.5% +0.94

Southwell (AW) 31 5 16.1% −6.88

Ayr 31 2 6.5% −16.00

Redcar 28 5 17.9% +6.50

Catterick 26 7 26.9% +3.58

Doncaster 25 1 4% +9.00

Carlisle 21 2 9.5% −7.50

Thirsk 21 2 9.5% −14.67

Ripon 18 2 11.1% −8.00

Musselburgh 18 3 16.7% −3.17

Beverley 16 1 6.3% −11.50

Pontefract 16 4 25% +4.48

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 212 31 14.6% −41.41

Class 5 161 22 13.7% −58.84

Class 4 140 15 10.7% −62.00

Class 2 65 3 4.6% −17.25

Class 3 52 3 5.8% −36.00

Class 1 2 2 100% +16.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 85 25 29.4% 1.07 −16.55

2nd–3rd fav 168 32 19% 1.10 −20.95

4th–6th fav 203 16 7.9% 0.99 −53.50

7th+ in betting 176 3 1.7% 0.51 −108.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hurt You Never (IRE) 22 6 8 15 Sep 26

Korker (IRE) 10 0 3 2 Aug 26

Parisiac (IRE) 8 1 6 8 Oct 26

Tees Aggregates (IRE) 8 1 2 30 Aug 26

Dream Illusion (GB) 8 1 4 4 Oct 25

Silky Wilkie (IRE) 7 2 5 3 Apr 26

Diamont Katie (IRE) 6 1 3 11 Sep 26

Lucius Aurelius (GB) 6 1 1 4 Aug 26

Thornaby Pearl (GB) 6 1 3 11 Jul 26

Gentle Warrior (IRE) 5 2 2 17 Oct 26

Jkr Cobbler (IRE) 5 2 2 12 Oct 26

Pendella (IRE) 5 0 4 3 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 397 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

131151018141213109814

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardK R Burke

23% of all rides
12.6% SR · A/E 0.89

TrainerRWSR£1

K R Burke 143 18 12.6% −55.16

Adrian Nicholls 76 10 13.2% −23.18

Iain Jardine 52 11 21.2% +5.08

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.16m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 47 wins

Miss Yechance (IRE) — Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2026 · Group 1

£199,990

Miss Yechance (IRE) — Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newbury · Sep 2026 · Group 3

£56,710

Miss Yechance (IRE) — Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2026 · Class 2

£51,540

Notable horses

Hurt You Never (IRE) Classy Clarets (IRE) Miss Yechance (IRE) Silky Wilkie (IRE) Jkr Cobbler (IRE) Gentle Warrior (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kodiac (GB) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Mehmas (IRE) 10% · 2–20

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,233 runs since 2020 (754 horses).

Havana Grey (GB) 21.1% · 4–19

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,611 runs since 2022 (420 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.9% from 424.

Oasis Dream (GB) 15.8% · 3–19

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,047 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Kodi Bear (IRE) 28.6% · 4–14

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,995 runs since 2020 (392 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.2% from 263.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 632 · newest first

The latest 50 of 632 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 May 2023 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Born A Rebel (GB)T: Patrick Owens CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 9/1

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Call Time (IRE)T: J. S. Moore Brandford Restaurants & Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 4/1

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Sweetstevie (GB)T: Patrick Owens Seadell Shops & Holiday Chalets Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 40/1

20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Majestic Dane (GB)T: K. R. Burke Join Moulton Racing Syndicate Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 9 ran 9th 33/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Someone's Wish (IRE)T: Patrick Morris bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bahia Bonita (GB)T: Jack Jones bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sir Marryat (IRE)T: Brian Meehan bettingsites.co.uk Best Betting Offers EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 150/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Burford Beauty (IRE)T: Charlie Clover bettingsites.co.uk Compare Before You Bet Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 100/30

17 Oct 26 Catterick Gentle Warrior (IRE)T: K. R. Burke Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 1st 13/8F

17 Oct 26 Catterick Classy Clarets (IRE)T: Iain Jardine William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 10/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick The Gay Blade (GB)T: Iain Jardine William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Veterans' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 4th 12/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Heaven's Hope (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Every Race Live On Racing TV Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 7th 200/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Northern Exposure (GB)T: Patrick Owens EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 80/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Saxon Prince (GB)T: John & Sean Quinn racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 12th 18/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Sugar Baby (GB)T: Peter Niven Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 9th 7/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Capricious Star (IRE)T: K. R. Burke Watch Live On Racing TV EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 14/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 10/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Midnight's Dream (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 13/8F

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bridgefoot Rambler (GB)T: Stephen Hanlon Free Bets On Attheraces.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 50/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Call Time (IRE)T: J. S. Moore Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 20 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Jack Nicholls's strike rate?: Jack Nicholls has won 76 of 632 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jack Nicholls do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 9 wins from 40 rides (22.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jack Nicholls ride most for?: K R Burke, with 143 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.6%).
What is Jack Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 631 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.