Jack Nicholls
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (95 rides).
The record is strongest at Hamilton (22.5%, n=40), clear of the rider's 12% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=95, Fair A/E 1.16), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=102, Fair A/E 0.88). K R Burke supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.6%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well off a 8-14-day break (18.1%, n=149). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.4% over 42 rides, 9.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 2: Fair A/E 0.63 across 65 rides (4.6% strike, −17.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2026, £199,990). The standout partner of the record: Hurt You Never (IRE) — 6 wins from 22 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires May–Jun.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2023→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 632 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 632 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 May 2023 to 22 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 20 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Jack Nicholls's strike rate?
- Jack Nicholls has won 76 of 632 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Jack Nicholls do best at?
- Hamilton by strike rate: 9 wins from 40 rides (22.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Jack Nicholls ride most for?
- K R Burke, with 143 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.6%).
- What is Jack Nicholls's Fair A/E?
- 1.02, from 631 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.