5:05 Plumpton
This Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle at Plumpton over 3m0f217y brings together a compact field of five where the KTB Fit scores range from 63 down to 42. The race features a mix of horses stepping up markedly in trip and others with previous experience at the distance, all unproven on the current going. Overall the numbers point to a tactical contest in which late closers could be advantaged and where class and stamina will both come under scrutiny.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium that it will be steadily-run and tactical. With every runner in the field usually held up and producing its effort late, the early fractions are likely to be modest and the race could turn into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is whether the extra distance will suit those stepping up in trip and which of the hold-up performers can muster the strongest finish once the pace lifts.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Where's Cato KTB Selection63/100
Where's Cato arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit score of 63 and an official rating of 100. A useful performer, he showed solid placed form last season including a second here over shorter. He is dropping in class today while stepping up markedly in trip, a move that asks a fresh question. Mrs C Williams holds a 50% strike rate at Plumpton from her two runs here with an A/E of 1.7, though the jockey Conor Ring operates at a 6% strike rate from 17 rides with an A/E of 0.43. The trainer and jockey combination shows 5/59 (8%) with an A/E of 0.88 and +£8.00 LSP. Usually held up with high confidence, Where's Cato produced his effort late in his recent 0123-5 form and remains unproven on the current going having had no previous runs on it.
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2Stamina Chope57/100
Stamina Chope carries a KTB Fit score of 57 and an official rating of 81. A fair performer, he has won over this trip in the past and arrives off a recent sixth that suggests he retains some ability at the age of ten. He has already shown he can win at Plumpton from three runs here and the step up in trip today looks an interesting move given his record. Dave Roberts has a 20% strike rate at the track from five runs with an A/E of 1.23 while Lee Edwards posts a 13% strike rate from 40 rides with an A/E of 1.34. The trainer and jockey partnership records 28/402 (7%) with an A/E of 0.84 and -£122.59 LSP. Usually held up with high confidence, he is unproven on the current going.
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3Grey Gamble53/100
Grey Gamble is rated with a KTB Fit score of 53 and an official rating of 94. A useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history, he steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m7½f, with the longer distance an unknown. Emma Lavelle has a 17% strike rate at Plumpton from 187 runs with an A/E of 0.85 while Harry Cobden operates at a strong 28% strike rate from 155 rides with an A/E of 1.11. The trainer and jockey combination shows 29/114 (25%) with an A/E of 1.06 and -£26.32 LSP. Usually held up with medium confidence, his recent form reads 84-54P and he has no course form on record while remaining unproven on the current going.
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4Burning Embers45/100
Burning Embers has a KTB Fit score of 45 and an official rating of 88. A fair performer on the balance of his five runs to date, he arrives with the benefit of first-time headgear. The step up from 2m to almost 3m 1f poses a fresh question while the Plumpton going remains unknown given the small sample. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton both hold solid records at the track with the yard at 18% from 113 runs (A/E 0.72) and the jockey at 19% from 88 rides (A/E 0.84). Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form is 6466-6.
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5Mild Magic42/100
Mild Magic carries a KTB Fit score of 42 and an official rating of 81. He has shown fair form and looks suited by this trip having placed on his only attempt at it, with recent efforts including a second and a third. The Mulholland yard posts a 14% strike rate at Plumpton from 303 runs with an A/E of 0.81 while Conor O'Farrell has a 15% record from 53 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has been placed both starts at the track without winning from his 2,3 course record and remains unproven on the current going.
KTB verdict
Where's Cato is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit score in the race along with useful placed form last season, including a second at this track, and is dropping in class while the extra distance will be a new test. The yard's strong record at Plumpton adds to the appeal of a horse who is expected to come from off the pace in a steadily-run affair. His main dangers are Stamina Chope, who has won over the trip before and possesses solid course form, and Grey Gamble, whose useful ability could be unlocked by the longer distance and the booking of Cobden.
KTB Selection Where's Cato
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Where's Cato | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Stamina Chope | 11/4 | 7Bet |
| Grey Gamble | 7/1 | BetMGM |
| Burning Embers | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Mild Magic | 13/8 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Plumpton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Plumpton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Plumpton results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Plumpton racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up most markedly in trip?
Where's Cato and Grey Gamble are both stepping up markedly in trip, with Where's Cato moving up from shorter and Grey Gamble having last run over 2m7½f.
How many runners are held up in running style?
All five runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Stamina Chope has won here over this trip in the past and has a 1 from 3 course record.
Who is the only runner wearing new headgear?
Burning Embers is the only horse in first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Plumpton among those with notable figures supplied?
Mrs C Williams has a 50% strike rate at Plumpton from two runs with an A/E of 1.7.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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