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Trainer profile

Dave Roberts

160 runners in the last 5 seasons · 27 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 99% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–160
Wins / Runs
7.5%
Strike rate
n=160
34 (21%)
Placed
1.02
Fair A/E
n=159 · 0.87 incl. margin
−44.00
£1 level stake
n=160 at SP · −27.5%
£113k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 160 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Lee Edwards: 8.4% from 143
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4% (n=50, Fair A/E 1.17). Lee Edwards rides 89% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.4%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 4 — 4.1% over 49 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.67 across 51 runners (5.9% strike, −33.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: G'day Aussie (GB) — 6 wins from 36 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4%−3.5
n=50 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −27.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.5
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
14.3%+6.8
n=7 · A/E 5.03 · £1 +19.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
16.7%+9.2
n=6 · A/E 2.87 · £1 −0.50
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +0.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−7.5
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 4 4.1% vs 7.5% · n=49
At Worcester 10% vs 7.5% · n=50
In Class 5 9.4% vs 7.5% · n=106 · A/E 1.15
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 5.9% vs 7.5% · n=51 · A/E 0.67
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 122 10 8.2% −26.50
Chase 22 2 9.1% −1.50
NH Flat 15 0 0% −15.00
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 114 8 7% −27.00
Soft 20 1 5% −16.50
Good to Soft 16 2 12.5% +1.00
Heavy 8 1 12.5% +0.50
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Worcester 50 5 10% +0.00
Hereford 14 0 0% −14.00
Uttoxeter 12 0 0% −12.00
Stratford 12 0 0% −12.00
Market Rasen 11 2 18.2% +20.50
Bangor-on-Dee 11 1 9.1% −5.50
Ludlow 9 0 0% −9.00
Southwell 7 0 0% −7.00
Leicester 6 1 16.7% −2.50
Plumpton 5 1 20% +0.00
Huntingdon 5 0 0% −5.00
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00
Wetherby 3 0 0% −3.00
Ffos Las 2 1 50% +6.50
Newton Abbot 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 106 10 9.4% −28.00
Class 4 49 2 4.1% −11.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 0.90 −0.50
2nd–3rd fav 31 4 12.9% 0.78 −10.50
4th–6th fav 55 5 9.1% 1.34 −2.00
7th+ in betting 70 2 2.9% 1.10 −31.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
88.9% completed · 144 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 22 86.4% 0 1 2 0 0
Hurdle 122 89.3% 5 1 6 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Stamina Chope (FR)from Gavin Cromwell 31 4 11 19 Oct 26
Quick Of The Night (GB) 23 3 6 8 Oct 26
Play Pretend (IRE) 15 2 6 10 Jul 26
G'day Aussie (GB)from Brian Ellison 15 3 6 18 Oct 25
Tampico Rocco (IRE) 9 0 0 18 Jun 24
Man Of The North (GB)from Tony Carroll 8 0 1 29 Oct 24
Billy Butcher (IRE) 7 0 1 7 Oct 26
Racing Spirit (GB)from Kevin Frost 6 0 3 23 Jul 23
Nippin N Poppin (GB) 5 0 0 14 Jul 24
Rachel Louise (GB) 5 0 0 13 Jul 22
Felino De Bersy (FR)from Gordon Elliott 4 0 0 27 Oct 22
Troy Story (GB)from Eve Johnson Houghton 3 0 0 17 Oct 26
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dr Richard Newland (2) and Gordon Elliott (2); 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
80013091800890
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLee Edwards
89% of all rides
8.4% SR · A/E 1.12
RiderRWSR£1
Lee Edwards 143 12 8.4% −27.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
30
Archived wins
£251k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Milan Of Crystal (IRE) — Central Roofing West Wales Mares' Handicap Hurdle Worcester · Oct 2017 · Class 4
£6,330
G'day Aussie (GB) — Allan Atkinson Memorial Handicap Hurdle Stratford · Jul 2018 · Class 4
£5,328
G'day Aussie (GB) — Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Hurdle Bangor-on-Dee · Jul 2025 · Class 5
£5,281
Notable horses
G'day Aussie (GB) Stamina Chope (FR) Milan Of Crystal (IRE) Quick Of The Night (GB) Highland River (GB) Play Pretend (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Muhaymin (USA) 12.9% · 4–31
Progeny have won 10.6% of 662 runs since 2008 (100 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.1% from 113.
Gentlewave (IRE) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 13.1% of 1,651 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 430.
Shirocco (GER) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,161 runs since 2008 (920 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Aussie Rules (USA) 20% · 3–15
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,515 runs since 2008 (297 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 177.
Make Believe (GB) 13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,598 runs since 2008 (297 horses).
And Beyond (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 7.8% of 807 runs since 2008 (79 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 488 · newest first

The latest 50 of 488 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 May 2011 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Plumpton Stamina Chope (FR)J: Lee Edwards Aldaniti Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 11/4
17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards Pertemps Network Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 150/1
13 Oct 26 Hereford Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Betting.Bet Free Bets Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 22/1
10 Oct 26 Hexham Shallow River (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Tackling Insights Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 20/1
08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Park Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/2
07 Oct 26 Worcester Billy Butcher (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Pj Nicholls Kgm Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 13/2
04 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 40/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Copybet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 12th 100/1
10 Sep 26 Worcester Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
10 Sep 26 Worcester Billy Butcher (IRE)J: Lewis Saunders CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 6th 100/1
05 Sep 26 Stratford Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Andy Townsend Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 22f · Good · 9 ran 4th 13/2
04 Sep 26 Worcester Stamina Chope (FR)J: Lee Edwards Copybet Bog Now For Saturday's Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 6th 22/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Kottayam (FR)J: Lee Edwards Neu-Servo Supports Larsen's Pride Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 9th 22/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Neu-Servo Phils Last Shift Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 5th 11/1
15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards oddschecker.com Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 14/1
22 Jul 26 Worcester Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Bathroom Studio Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 10th 7/1
10 Jul 26 Worcester Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Amodil Group Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 3/1
10 Jul 26 Worcester Play Pretend (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Martin Keighley Racing Club Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 2/1
19 Jun 26 Market Rasen Kottayam (FR)J: Lee Edwards Global Shipping Services Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 50/1
11 Jun 26 Worcester Play Pretend (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 4/1J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Dave Roberts's strike rate?
Dave Roberts has won 12 of 160 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Dave Roberts do best at?
Worcester by strike rate: 5 wins from 50 runners (10%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Dave Roberts?
Lee Edwards, with 143 runners since 2022 — 89% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.4%).
Is Dave Roberts in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Dave Roberts's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 159 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).