2:15 Cork
The Paddy Power 'How Many Days 'Til Christmas?' Irish EBF Novice Hurdle is a Listed Class 1 contest over 3m0f100y at Cork on yielding ground. A field of just six runners lines up, but the quality is high with four principals holding KTB Fit Scores between 57 and 70. The KTB numbers point to a competitive affair in which course experience, trip suitability and yard form at Cork will all play their part.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence. Roc Dino is the clear front-runner and should take them along, pressed by several prominent racers including Minella Emperor, Theflyingking, Too Hot To Trot, Siege Of Carthage and Amina. This sets up a fair test at the trip where the ability to stay the distance under pressure will be the key question.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Minella Emperor KTB Selection70/100
Minella Emperor is a high-class performer with a solid recent record and an official rating of 125. He has won two of his three starts at Cork, a track where trainer Emmet Mullins posts a 22% strike rate from 63 runs that is above his overall mark. The jockey, Mr M J O'Neill, boasts a 67% strike rate at Cork from just three rides. Placed once from two runs on yielding ground without winning, he has nevertheless won at today's trip. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, his prominent run-style should see him well placed in a genuinely-run race. Recent form of 220P-1 underlines his competitiveness at this level.
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2Theflyingking66/100
Theflyingking showed useful promise when winning a bumper on debut and finishing second in a maiden hurdle before a lesser effort last time out. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear and remains lightly raced overall. The dam has had one other runner which did not win. Trainer Gordon Elliott and jockey Jack Kennedy both operate at a 15% strike rate at Cork which sits in line with their figures elsewhere. With no runs on yielding ground he is unproven on the surface and has no course form on record. His prominent run-style, in which he usually races handily on or close to the lead, should be suited to the expected pace.
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3Roc Dino64/100
Roc Dino is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 20-121 and an official rating of 128 from just seven career starts. He steps up in trip today having not been tried over this far which asks a fresh question. Full brother to Senator who won twice from five runs, while the dam has had one other runner which was also a winner. Trainer W. P. Mullins has a 27% strike rate at Cork from 812 runs which is above his 21% at other tracks while Paul Townend operates at 24% here from 350 rides in line with his overall rate. With no runs on yielding ground he remains unproven on the surface and has no course form on record. His front-running style, in which he tends to make the running or race on the pace, means he is likely to set the fractions in a genuinely-run contest.
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4Too Hot To Trot57/100
Too Hot To Trot has shown fair placed form in two starts over shorter trips and now steps up markedly in distance to 3m for a first try at the trip. Half-brother to Grade 3 winner Chanceawetmorning, the dam has had four other runners of which three were winners. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has a 14% strike rate at Cork from 531 runs in line with his overall record while jockey Darragh O'Keeffe rides with an 11% strike rate at the track from 207 rides also in line with his record elsewhere. With no runs on yielding ground he is unproven on the surface and has no course form on record. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, he remains lightly raced overall with low data confidence.
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5Siege Of Carthage49/100
Siege Of Carthage is a smart performer who showed his best when finishing second over this trip at Cork last time. He has form on a variety of ground but remains unproven on yielding. Trainer's 5% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 8% at Cork sits above his overall figure.
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6Amina41/100
Amina is a smart performer on her official rating of 107 and recent placed efforts over shorter trips. She steps up in trip today to 3m for the first time which asks a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile leaves going suitability unknown despite being placed once from one run on yielding. Half-sister to Altobelli who won five times from 14 runs, the dam has had two other runners both of whom were winners. Trainer John McConnell has a 9% strike rate at Cork from 174 runs in line with his record elsewhere and jockey Alex Harvey is 0 from 23 at the track in line with his 10% at other courses.
KTB verdict
Minella Emperor is the KTB Selection. He brings a high-class profile, an official rating of 125, proven ability at Cork where he has won two from three, and a prominent run-style that should suit the expected genuinely-run pace. The combination of course form, trip suitability and Emmet Mullins's strong 22% strike rate at the venue makes him hard to oppose. His main dangers are Roc Dino, who sets the pace and holds a lofty official rating of 128, and Theflyingking, who remains lightly raced and could improve for the step up in trip and first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Minella Emperor
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Minella Emperor | 11/2 | BetTom, 12:03am |
| Theflyingking | 9/4 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Roc Dino | 7/4 | BetTom, 12:03am |
| Too Hot To Trot | 9/2 | BetTom, 12:03am |
| Siege Of Carthage | 14/1 | Virgin Bet, 12:03am |
| Amina | 20/1 | BetMGM, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:15 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cork results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Cork racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Cork?
Minella Emperor has won two of three starts at Cork.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A genuinely-run pace with a front-runner pressed by several handy types sets up a fair test at the trip.
Which runner is making a first attempt at 3m?
Both Roc Dino and Too Hot To Trot are stepping up markedly in trip having not been tried over this far.
Who wears first-time headgear in the race?
Theflyingking is wearing headgear for the first time.
What is the trainer strike rate at Cork for the handler of the selection?
Emmet Mullins posts a 22% strike rate at Cork from 63 runs.
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