Horse profile
Aleatoric (IRE)
by Dylan Thomas (IRE) out of Castalian Spring (IRE) (Oasis Dream)
39 runs · 16 courses · from Apr 2019
As at 13 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
No run recorded since 3 May 2022 — 1,624 days ago. Our archive can't say whether the horse is still in training.
Last run May 2022
4 wins · Wolverhampton (AW), Lingfield (AW) & Chelmsford City (AW)
Last raced off OR 82
KTB Profile
Aleatoric (IRE) is 4 from 39, all wins coming at Class 6 level. Hasn't won since Jul 2021. All 4 wins have come on the all-weather — 0 from 14 on turf. All 4 wins have come over 1m5f – 2m. Last raced off 82, 16lb below the career-high mark.
Based on 39 archived runs · updated 13 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
All wins on AW
All wins at Class 6
OR ↓ 16lb off peak
- 4–39Wins / Runs
- 10.3%Strike rate
- 11 (28.2%)Placed
- −22.00£1 level staken=39 at SP
- 1.15Fair A/E n=39 · 0.99 incl. margin
- 98Highest OR
- 29dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating82↓ 16lb off peak
82
20–98
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 113
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was.
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 5 | 80A | 71 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 80A | 71 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | — | — | — |
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 24 | 113A | 88 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 97A | 53 | — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 13 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 22 | 113A | 88 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 5 | 97A | 71 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | — | — | — |
Of 39 runs looked at, 5 have no figure: did not complete (5).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 34 figures from 39 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10.5% of 7,484 runs since Jan 2008 (533 horses).
Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 50 | 6 | 12% | +1.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 645 | 79 | 12.2% | +1.7 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 2,070 | 238 | 11.5% | +1 | 0 from 7 |
| Good to Soft | 1,138 | 111 | 9.8% | −0.7 | 0 from 4 |
| Soft | 1,711 | 154 | 9% | −1.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 649 | 65 | 10% | −0.5 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,220 | 132 | 10.8% | +0.3 | 4 from 25 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 192 | 34 | 17.7% | +7.2 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 691 | 60 | 8.7% | −1.8 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,214 | 125 | 10.3% | −0.2 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,248 | 127 | 10.2% | −0.3 | 0 from 5 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1,811 | 182 | 10% | −0.5 | 4 from 30 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,550 | 171 | 11% | +0.5 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 645 | 66 | 10.2% | −0.3 | 0 from 3 |
| Over 3m | 133 | 20 | 15% | +4.5 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 13 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Castalian Spring (IRE) (Oasis Dream)
5 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Affluence (IRE) (5 wins).
The wins came over 4f–2m; the highest grade won is Class 5 (Affluence (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affluence (IRE) | 41 | 5 | 1m2f–2m | Class 5 |
| All About Alice (IRE) | 26 | 3 | 1m3f–2m | Class 6 |
| Snoozy Sioux (IRE) | 27 | 2 | 4f–5f | Class 6 |
| Requinto's Rose (IRE) | 7 | 0 | — | — |
| Asclepius (IRE) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 25 | 4 | 16% | −8.00 |
| Good | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 22 | 4 | 18% | −5.00 |
| Class 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Class 4 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Class 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 10 | 1 | 10% | −3.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 8 | 2 | 25% | −2.50 |
| Kempton (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Fakenham | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Huntingdon | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Southwell | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Kempton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Market Rasen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Catterick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 30 | 4 | 13% | −13.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Clark | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Richard Kingscote | 5 | 3 | 60% | +5.00 |
| Eoin Walsh | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Nick Scholfield | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Georgia Lea | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Hector Crouch | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.00 |
| Joey Haynes | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Pat Cosgrave | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hayley Turner | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Harry Reed | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| David Egan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Martin Harley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Eddie Edge | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gerald Mosse | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Danny Brock | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blinkers | 21 | 3 | 14% | −11.00 |
| None | 14 | 1 | 7% | −7.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2021 | 14 | 3 | 21% | −4.00 |
| 2020 | 14 | 1 | 7% | −7.00 |
| 2019 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 29 | 4 | 14% | −12.00 |
| Hurdle | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Chase | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 22+15d | Fakenham | 100% RacingTV Profits Back Into Racing Handicap Chase | PU/7 | — | 11-4 | 82 | — | — | Gavin Sheehan | 8/1 |
| 18 Apr 22+44d | Huntingdon | Visit Racingtv.com Handicap Chase | 5/7 | 20 | 11-5 | 87 | 32C | 82C | Harry Reed | 11/1 |
| 05 Mar 22+24d | Lingfield (AW) | Play 4 To Win At Betway All-Weather 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice Handicap | 2/6 | ½ | 8-2 | 56 | 103A | 65B | Georgia Lea | 18/1 |
| 09 Feb 22+14d | Kempton (AW) | Racingtv.com Handicap | 4/11 | nk | 9-8 | 57 | 113A | 68A | Joey Haynes | 5/2F |
| 26 Jan 22+22d | Kempton (AW) | Every Race Live On Racing Tv Handicap | 2/10 | 1¾ | 9-11 | 57 | 100A | 77A | Joey Haynes | 6/1 |
| 04 Jan 22+28d | Lingfield (AW) | BetYourWay At Betway Handicap | 3/12 | 1 | 9-3 | 58 | 96A | 65A | Jacob Clark | 40/1 |
| 07 Dec 21+11d | Southwell (AW) | Read Katie Walsh On Betway Insider Handicap | 9/9 | 51 | 9-0 | 60 | 28C | 53C | Jacob Clark | 40/1 |
| 26 Nov 21+16d | Chelmsford City (AW) | CCR Handicap | PU/7 | — | 9-9 | 60 | — | — | Richard Kingscote | 16/1 |
| 10 Nov 21+24d | Kempton (AW) | Try Our New Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap | 12/13 | 8½ | 8-13 | 62 | 52C | 53C | Georgia Lea | 200/1 |
| 17 Oct 21+10d | Kempton | Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) | 4/4 | 97 | 11-0 | 87 | 55C | 89C | Nick Scholfield | 150/1 |
| 07 Oct 21+21d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Download The MansionBet App Handicap | 8/8 | 4¾ | 9-8 | 63 | 86C | 54C | David Egan | 33/1 |
| 16 Sep 21+14d | Chelmsford City (AW) | tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race Handicap | 4/5 | 5 | 9-3 | 64 | 78C | 62B | Hector Crouch | 7/1 |
| 02 Sep 21+30d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Buy Your 2022 Membership Now Handicap | 7/7 | 55 | 9-7 | 65 | 60C | 59C | Georgia Lea | 25/1 |
| 03 Aug 21+20d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Ladies Day 26th August Handicap | 5/8 | ¾ | 10-0 | 65 | 86A | 77A | Pat Cosgrave | 9/2 |
| 14 Jul 21+23d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Read Hollie Doyle's Column On attheraces.com Handicap | 1/12 | 9-11 | 62 | 102A | 80A | Richard Kingscote | 7/2 | |
| 21 Jun 21+18d | Southwell | Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap Hurdle (Div 2) | PU/9 | — | 11-7 | 92 | — | — | Nick Scholfield | 14/1 |
| 03 Jun 21+85d | Chelmsford City (AW) | tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race Handicap | 2/10 | 5 | 9-8 | 61 | 93A | 80A | Richard Kingscote | 5/2 |
| 10 Mar 21+35d | Lingfield (AW) | Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap | 1/12 | 9-0 | 53 | 89A | 74A | Richard Kingscote | 2/1F | |
| 03 Feb 21+7d | Lingfield (AW) | Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap | 4/10 | nk | 9-5 | 48 | 93A | 67A | Martin Harley | 7/4F |
| 27 Jan 21+45d | Lingfield (AW) | Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap | 1/7 | 8-12 | 48 | 73A | 64A | Richard Kingscote | 6/4F | |
| 13 Dec 20+18d | Lingfield (AW) | Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap (Div 1) | 5/11 | shd | 9-0 | 48 | 94A | 63A | Hayley Turner | 7/2 |
| 25 Nov 20+13d | Lingfield (AW) | Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap | 2/13 | shd | 8-12 | 46 | 95B | 65A | Hayley Turner | 14/1 |
| 12 Nov 20+34d | Chelmsford City (AW) | tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP Handicap | 4/12 | 7 | 8-12 | 48 | 97A | 63A | Hector Crouch | 13/2 |
| 09 Oct 20+26d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Casino Deposit 10 Get 40 Bonus Handicap | 8/14 | ¾ | 8-7 | 48 | 84B | 54A | Jacob Clark | 16/1 |
| 13 Sep 20+10d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap | 3/10 | nse | 9-3 | 48 | 88A | 68A | Pat Cosgrave | 20/1 |
| 03 Sep 20+23d | Southwell | Southwell Racecourse Supports The Mansfield Chad Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2) | 6/7 | 16 | 10-5 | 95 | 73C | 76C | Eddie Edge | 66/1 |
| 11 Aug 20+22d | Lingfield (AW) | Betway Casino Handicap | 9/14 | 4 | 8-12 | 50 | 72C | 47C | Jacob Clark | 16/1 |
| 20 Jul 20+14d | Market Rasen | Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Hurdle | 11/12 | 5 | 11-2 | 98 | 80A | 78A | Nick Scholfield | 20/1 |
| 06 Jul 20+6d | Uttoxeter | bet365 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) | 3/11 | ½ | 10-12 | — | 71A | 110A | Nick Scholfield | 150/1 |
| 30 Jun 20+112d | Leicester | Every Race Live On RacingTV Handicap | 6/10 | 2½ | 9-6 | 51 | 97A | 59A | Eoin Walsh | 11/1 |
| 10 Mar 20+12d | Southwell (AW) | Betway Apprentice Handicap | 5/8 | 2½ | 8-9 | 53 | 71B | 47A | Jacob Clark | 5/2 |
| 27 Feb 20+20d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Good Friday Spring Country Fair Classified Stakes | 1/12 | 9-0 | 35 | 88B | 72A | Hector Crouch | 6/1 | |
| 07 Feb 20+15d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Sheikh Abdulla Classified Stakes | 9/14 | 1½ | 8-7 | 20 | 84B | 48A | Jacob Clark | 100/1 |
| 23 Jan 20+37d | Fakenham | RMA Sandhurst Louts' 30th Anniversary Dinner Maiden Hurdle | PU/8 | — | 10-7 | — | — | — | Eoin Walsh | 250/1 |
| 17 Dec 19+24d | Catterick | Old Red House Thirsk Juvenile Hurdle | 12/15 | 24 | 10-12 | — | 50C | 76C | Eoin Walsh | 150/1 |
| 23 Nov 19+150d | Huntingdon | Gravitas Magazine Maiden Hurdle (Div 1) | PU/11 | — | 10-7 | — | — | — | Eoin Walsh | 100/1 |
| 26 Jun 19+47d | Salisbury | Radcliffe & Co 60th Anniversary British EBF Maiden Stakes | 7/8 | 17 | 9-2 | — | 9C | 60C | Eoin Walsh | 150/1 |
| 10 May 19+27d | Ascot | Karen Millen Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) | 7/7 | 33 | 9-5 | — | 1C | 60C | Gerald Mosse | 150/1 |
| 13 Apr 19 | Newbury | Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1) | 13/13 | 10 | 9-5 | — | -25C | 58C | Danny Brock | 200/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Aleatoric (IRE) won?
- Aleatoric (IRE) won 4 of 39 archived starts between 2019 and 2022, a strike rate of 10.3%. Placed 11 times in total (28.2% of starts).
- Who trained Aleatoric (IRE)?
- Aleatoric (IRE) was trained by Martin Smith on the most recent run on record, at Fakenham on 3 May 2022.
- Who is Aleatoric (IRE)'s sire?
- Aleatoric (IRE) is by Dylan Thomas (IRE) out of Castalian Spring (IRE), whose sire is Oasis Dream.
- What going does Aleatoric (IRE) prefer?
- Aleatoric (IRE) has the best record on standard (aw) going: 4 wins from 25 starts (16%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Aleatoric (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 82, from the run on 3 May 2022. The highest on record is 98.
- What is Aleatoric (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Dylan Thomas (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.5% of 7,484 runs since Jan 2008 (533 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
- Who are Aleatoric (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Castalian Spring (IRE), Aleatoric (IRE) has 5 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Affluence (IRE) (5). Highest grade won: Class 5 (Affluence (IRE)). The wins came over 4f–2m. As at Oct 2026.