Martin Harley
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.94). First rides on a horse are a strength: 17% on the first captured pairing (78 rides). Rides mostly for Alan King — 41% of rides in the window.
First rides on a horse have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=78, Fair A/E 1.42). Alan King supplies 41% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (6% vs 11%, A/E 0.56). The rider also reads well over 1m – 1m1f (16.2%, n=37). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 3.8% over 52 rides, 7.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.47 across 71 rides (5.6% strike, −49.84 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2015, £212,663). The standout partner of the record: On The Cusp (IRE) — 5 wins from 16 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 6,561 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 6,561 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 15 June 2007 to 27 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Martin Harley's strike rate?
- Martin Harley has won 18 of 164 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Martin Harley ride most for?
- Alan King, with 67 rides since 2022 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6%).
- What is Martin Harley's Fair A/E?
- 0.94, from 163 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.