Hayley Turner
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 240 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (149 rides).
The record is strongest at Chester (16.2%, n=37), clear of the rider's 9.6% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (2.2% over 45 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.8% (n=149, Fair A/E 1.00), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.9% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.41). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −122.67 to a £1 stake over 206 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Simcock supplies 18% of the rides and edges the rider's average (14.3% vs 9.6%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 24 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Darley July Cup at Newmarket (Jul 2011, £226,840). The standout partner of the record: Desert Strike (GB) — 8 wins from 35 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 9,895 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 9,895 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2005 to 2 April 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Hayley Turner's strike rate?
- Hayley Turner has won 116 of 1,206 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Hayley Turner do best at?
- Chester by strike rate: 6 wins from 37 rides (16.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Hayley Turner ride most for?
- David Simcock, with 223 rides since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (14.3%).
- What is Hayley Turner's Fair A/E?
- 0.95, from 1,200 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.