Horse profile
Winter Fog (IRE)
by Papal Bull (GB) out of Banphrionsa (IRE) (Flemensfirth)
34 runs · 18 courses · from Feb 2021
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
6 wins · 6 courses
Headgear returns LTO
Last run 29 Dec 2025 · 7th of 8
Last raced off OR 144
KTB Profile
Winter Fog is 6 from 34 on turf with all wins on soft or good going and three of them over 1m5f – 2m. His biggest success came in the Grade 3 Kevin McManus Bookmaker Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary in Jul 2024 off an official rating of 147. He has also won at Leopardstown, Galway, Cork and Tramore. Typically held up, he finished 7 of 8 at Leopardstown in Dec 2025 when last raced off 144, 8lb below his highest ever mark, with headgear returning.
Based on 34 archived runs · run-style from 16 commented runs since Aug 2024 · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance
OR ↓ 8lb off peak
- 6–34Wins / Runs
- 17.6%Strike rate
- 13 (38.2%)Placed
- +32.62£1 level staken=34 at SP
- 1.29Fair A/E n=34 · 1.09 incl. margin
- 152Highest OR
- 54dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating144↓ 8lb off peak
144
85–152
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 141
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 13 | 150C | 115 | — |
| Good to Soft | 8 | 124B | 102 | 2 runs · 106 / 97.5 |
| Good | 7 | 142C | 84 | 1 run · — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 12 | 125B | 102 | 1 run · — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 8 | 124B | 84.5 | 1 run · — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 8 | 150C | 126.5 | 1 run · — |
| Over 3m | 1 | — | — | — |
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 1 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1 | — | — | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1 | — | — | — |
Of 34 runs looked at, 3 have no figure: not enough races on the card to set the day (under 4) (2) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 31 figures from 34 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 16 analysed runs since Aug 2024
- Held up 8 (50%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 5 (31%) · 0 wins
- Mid-division 3 (19%) · 1 win
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 7.4% of 1,584 runs since May 2012 (131 horses).
Weakest on good to soft going: 3.5% from 172. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −7.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 121 | 10 | 8.3% | +0.9 | 0 from 1 |
| Good | 540 | 35 | 6.5% | −0.9 | 1 from 9 |
| Good to Soft | 172 | 6 | 3.5% | −3.9 | 0 from 9 |
| Soft | 397 | 39 | 9.8% | +2.4 | 5 from 14 |
| Heavy | 145 | 14 | 9.7% | +2.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 208 | 13 | 6.3% | −1.1 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 10 | 0 | 0% | −7.4 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 122 | 4 | 3.3% | −4.1 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 206 | 13 | 6.3% | −1.1 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 254 | 16 | 6.3% | −1.1 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 434 | 28 | 6.5% | −0.9 | 3 from 15 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 366 | 36 | 9.8% | +2.4 | 1 from 9 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 158 | 16 | 10.1% | +2.7 | 2 from 9 |
| Over 3m | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | +4.4 | 0 from 1 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since May 2012 · as at 31 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Banphrionsa (IRE) (Flemensfirth)
2 siblings in the archive, 0 winners.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel Yard (IRE) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
| Frosty Fossna (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 14 | 5 | 36% | +51.00 |
| Good to Soft | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| Good | 9 | 1 | 11% | −7.38 |
| Good to Firm | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopardstown | 5 | 1 | 20% | +1.50 |
| Punchestown | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Galway | 3 | 1 | 33% | +2.00 |
| Tipperary | 3 | 1 | 33% | +20.00 |
| Cheltenham | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tramore | 2 | 1 | 50% | −0.38 |
| Ballinrobe | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Kilbeggan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Wetherby | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gowran Park | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cork | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.50 |
| Killarney | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Aintree | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Limerick | 1 | 1 | 100% | +28.00 |
| Thurles | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Naas | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 15 | 3 | 20% | +16.12 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 9 | 1 | 11% | +20.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 9 | 2 | 22% | −2.50 |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hayes | 11 | 1 | 9% | +12.00 |
| Kieran Callaghan | 7 | 2 | 29% | +1.00 |
| Mr J G Murphy | 4 | 1 | 25% | +25.00 |
| Paul Townend | 3 | 1 | 33% | +2.00 |
| Mr P W Mullins | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Harry Cobden | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean D Bowen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Miss A B O'Connor | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.62 |
| Shane Foley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Miss R Dudfield | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Conor Clarke | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Danny Mullins | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 30 | 6 | 20% | +36.62 |
| Cheekpieces | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hood | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10% | −8.38 |
| 2024 | 8 | 1 | 13% | +15.00 |
| 2023 | 7 | 2 | 29% | −0.50 |
| 2022 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +2.50 |
| 2021 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +24.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurdle | 28 | 5 | 18% | +37.00 |
| Flat | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.38 |
| Chase | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · 10 runs | ||||||||||
| 29 Dec 25+37d | Leopardstown | December Hurdle (Grade 1) Held up at the back - no impression made - well held throughout - finished 7th | 7/8 | 8 | 11-12 | 144 | 89C | 115C | Brian Hayes | 80/1 |
| 22 Nov 25+21d | Ascot | Ladbrokes Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle) (GBB Race) Held up at back of field - pushed along and lost touch before 2 out - well held at the finish | 6/8 | 21 | 11-0 | 148 | 106C | 119C | Harry Cobden | 28/1 |
| 01 Nov 25+21d | Wetherby | bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (GBB Race) Settled handy in the pack travelling smoothly to 3 out - pressed for effort and dropped away - unable to threaten from 2 out home finishing 4th | 4/5 | 5 | 11-2 | 148 | 142C | 127B | Brian Hayes | 8/1 |
| 11 Oct 25+58d | Newmarket | Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Settled towards the back - crept into contention with 3f left - then pushed along and unable to land a blow - eventually well beaten in 9th | 9/19 | ½ | 8-5 | 85 | 105C | 75A | Sean D Bowen | 22/1 |
| 14 Aug 25+14d | Tramore | Join Us For Hurling For Cancer Research Supported By Centra 18th August (Ladies) Maiden Settled with the pack early - still 5th at the midpoint - moved into second before the final two furlongs - went in front with a furlong and a half left - pushed back into second late but rallied to snatch it on the line | 1/10 | 11-0 | — | — | 81A | Miss A B O'Connor | 8/13F | |
| 31 Jul 25+28d | Galway | Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade 3) Settled midpack early - pushed along and adrift after 3 out - stayed on same gear from before the last - finished 11th | 11/19 | 2¼ | 11-12 | 150 | 84C | 130A | Brian Hayes | 25/1 |
| 03 Jul 25+63d | Tipperary | Kevin McManus Bookmaker Grimes Hurdle (Grade 3) Sat close to the front group early - 4th at halfway - nudged along into 5th after three out with little response before the second last - stayed on same speed from the final fence to finish fifth | 5/12 | 1¾ | 11-8 | 152 | 122A | 144A | Brian Hayes | 5/1 |
| 01 May 25+51d | Punchestown | Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) Held up towards the back - made progress into 7th by three out - hit the front briefly two out - pressed for effort entering the straight - lost the advantage before the last - third approaching the final furlong - unable to find more and eased back to 4th at the finish | 4/11 | ¾ | 11-10 | 148 | 141A | 144A | Brian Hayes | 12/1 |
| 11 Mar 25+37d | Cheltenham | Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Held up early - lost touch before 2 out - closed in nearing last - jinked left to miss traffic after jumping it - moved into 3rd late and kept going without threatening the winner | 3/7 | 1½ | 11-10 | 150 | 100B | 145B | Brian Hayes | 150/1 |
| 02 Feb 25+35d | Leopardstown | Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) Up with the front group contesting 3rd - drifted right at the 5th - moved up to 2nd from the 6th and held that position after 2 out - well adrift going to the last and finished a distant 3rd | 3/5 | 9 | 11-12 | 150 | 76C | 134B | Mr P W Mullins | 28/1 |
| 2024 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 29 Dec 24+36d | Leopardstown | Neville Hotels Hurdle (Grade 1) Held up towards the back early - still low mid-division and not going with much fluency into the race - fourth two out - asked for effort but made little headway - stayed on at one gear late to take second | 2/6 | 30 | 11-12 | 150 | 86C | 132B | Brian Hayes | 66/1 |
| 23 Nov 24+48d | Punchestown | Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1) Held up at the back - urged forward 3f out - still a long way off in 6th with 2 to jump - closed late into 3rd by the finish but never able to trouble those in front | 3/7 | 13 | 11-12 | 150 | 115A | 146A | Mr P W Mullins | 28/1 |
| 06 Oct 24+33d | Tipperary | Horse & Jockey Hotel Hurdle (grade 3) Sat behind pace early - untidy over first two and drifted right after second - up in second by halfway - slipped back to third after 5 out - urged forward on inner to retake second turning in - unable to find more when asked after 2 out - stayed on same pace - eased back into fourth near the line | 3/5 | ½ | 11-8 | 152 | 104C | 135B | Brian Hayes | 9/4 |
| 03 Sep 24+19d | Gowran Park | Racing Again September 21st Maiden Slow to break - settled midpack - 5th at halfway - up to 4th with 6f left - moved into 2nd inside final 2f - stayed on at one speed to finish second | 2/11 | 7 | 9-9 | — | 109A | 77A | Shane Foley | 11/10F |
| 15 Aug 24+14d | Tramore | Style Evening August 17th (Ladies) Maiden Held up towards back on the wide side - improved into contention approaching halfway - surged to the front 5f out - driven and matched for the advantage 2 1/2f out - overtaken 1 1/2f out and stayed on at an even effort to finish second | 2/11 | 2½ | 10-7 | — | — | 82A | Miss R Dudfield | 13/8 |
| 01 Aug 24+28d | Galway | Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade 3) Sat close to the front group early - 7th at halfway then 6th after 2 out under pressure - stayed on at one speed to finish 4th | 4/19 | 2½ | 11-12 | 152 | 125B | 160A | Brian Hayes | 28/1 |
| 04 Jul 24+38d | Tipperary | Kevin McManus Bookmaker Grimes Hurdle (Grade 3) | 1/8 | 11-5 | 147 | 120A | 166B | Brian Hayes | 22/1 | |
| 27 May 24+259d | Ballinrobe | McHale Pro Glide Hurdle | 4/4 | 3¼ | 11-7 | 148 | 82C | 127B | Kieran Callaghan | 11/2 |
| 2023 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 11 Sep 23+30d | Galway | Deacy Gilligan Hurdle | 1/5 | 11-6 | 147 | 150C | 151B | Paul Townend | 4/1 | |
| 12 Aug 23+29d | Kilbeggan | Joe Cooney Memorial Hurdle | 4/7 | 4¾ | 11-0 | 148 | 140A | 128B | Kieran Callaghan | 10/11F |
| 14 Jul 23+25d | Cork | RBC Brewin Dolphin Hurdle | 1/6 | 10-7 | 148 | 71A | 133B | Kieran Callaghan | 1/2F | |
| 19 Jun 23+21d | Kilbeggan | Belvedere House & Gardens Opportunity Beginners Chase | 2/7 | 13 | 11-8 | — | 10A | 114A | Kieran Callaghan | 6/4F |
| 29 May 23+30d | Ballinrobe | McHale Tiger Roll Beginners Chase | 5/8 | 4¾ | 11-12 | — | 80A | 118A | Brian Hayes | 7/2 |
| 29 Apr 23+43d | Punchestown | Fitzwilliam Sports Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) | 8/18 | 3¾ | 11-5 | 148 | 124B | 136A | Kieran Callaghan | 16/1 |
| 17 Mar 23+80d | Cheltenham | McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) | 14/24 | 1½ | 11-4 | 152 | 87B | 132A | Kieran Callaghan | 25/1 |
| 2022 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 27 Dec 22+225d | Leopardstown | Paddy Power 'Je Suis Une Baguette' Handicap Hurdle | 1/14 | 11-1 | 136 | 116B | 152A | Kieran Callaghan | 11/2 | |
| 16 May 22+37d | Killarney | Beaufort Golf Club Handicap Hurdle | 5/14 | nk | 11-5 | 136 | 127B | 125A | Conor Clarke | 11/2 |
| 09 Apr 22+23d | Aintree | EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) | 11/21 | ½ | 11-3 | 139 | 84C | 121C | Paul Townend | 9/2J |
| 17 Mar 22+79d | Cheltenham | Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) | 4/22 | 1¼ | 10-8 | 138 | — | 137A | Paul Townend | 11/2C |
| 2021 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 28 Dec 21+244d | Leopardstown | Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) | 2/27 | 3¼ | 10-9 | 128 | 126B | 135A | Danny Mullins | 8/1 |
| 28 Apr 21+9d | Punchestown | Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle | 4/11 | 15 | 11-7 | — | 76C | 109C | Mr J G Murphy | 50/1 |
| 19 Apr 21+53d | Limerick | Kildimo (C & G) Maiden Hurdle (Div 1) | 1/15 | 11-7 | — | 112B | 129A | Mr J G Murphy | 28/1 | |
| 25 Feb 21+12d | Thurles | I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle | 5/16 | 24 | 10-13 | — | 81C | 95C | Mr J G Murphy | 125/1 |
| 13 Feb 21 | Naas | Naas Business Club Members Maiden Hurdle (Div 2) | 7/18 | 14 | 11-7 | — | 95B | 87A | Mr J G Murphy | 250/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Winter Fog won?
- Winter Fog (IRE) won 6 of 34 archived starts between 2021 and 2025, a strike rate of 17.6%. Placed 13 times in total (38.2% of starts).
- Who trains Winter Fog?
- Winter Fog (IRE) is trained by W P Mullins, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 29 December 2025.
- Who is Winter Fog's sire?
- Winter Fog (IRE) is by Papal Bull (GB) out of Banphrionsa (IRE), whose sire is Flemensfirth.
- What going does Winter Fog prefer?
- Winter Fog (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 5 wins from 14 starts (35.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Winter Fog's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 144, from the run on 29 December 2025. The highest on record is 152.
- What is Winter Fog's sire's record?
- Papal Bull (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 7.4% of 1,584 runs since May 2012 (131 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest on good to soft going: 3.5% from 172. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
- Who are Winter Fog's siblings?
- Out of Banphrionsa (IRE), Winter Fog (IRE) has 2 other produce in our archive, 0 of them winners. As at Nov 2026.