Ana O'Brien
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (66 rides). Rode mostly for A P O'Brien — 52% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Limerick (15.2%, n=33), clear of the rider's 8.4% baseline. It is weakest at Curragh (3.2% over 95 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.1% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.85), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.4% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.42). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −205.95 to a £1 stake over 315 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. A P O'Brien supplied 52% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.1%, A/E 0.93). The rider also read well on Heavy going (18.4%, n=38) and on Good to Firm going (15%, n=133). The record read poorly in Class 1 — 2.4% over 42 rides, 6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Stanerra Stakes at Leopardstown (IRE) (Jul 2016, £32,450). Seasonally, the rider fired Jun–Jul.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2012→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 782 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 782 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 September 2012 to 18 July 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Ana O'Brien's strike rate?
- Ana O'Brien has won 66 of 782 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Ana O'Brien do best at?
- Limerick by strike rate: 5 wins from 33 rides (15.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Ana O'Brien ride most for?
- A P O'Brien, with 407 rides since 2008 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 41 (10.1%).
- What is Ana O'Brien's Fair A/E?
- 0.90, from 781 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.