Antoine Werle
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (40 rides).
It is weakest at La Teste De Buch (2.6% over 39 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.71), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 4.7% (n=43, Fair A/E 1.10). H-A Pantall supplies 29% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.1% vs 9.1%, A/E 0.52). The rider also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (14%, n=178) and on Soft going (12.9%, n=140). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 5.6% over 197 rides, 3.5pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the UAE President Cup Series - Group 3 Pure Arabian Stakes at Newbury (Aug 2026, £85,065). Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–May.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2011→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 637 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 637 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 17 December 2011 to 5 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Antoine Werle's strike rate?
- Antoine Werle has won 58 of 637 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Antoine Werle do best at?
- Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 3 wins from 33 rides (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Antoine Werle ride most for?
- H-A Pantall, with 182 rides since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (12.1%).
- Is Antoine Werle in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Antoine Werle's Fair A/E?
- 0.92, from 582 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.