Vaclav Luka Jr
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.69).
The record is strongest at Deauville (AW) (8%, n=137), clear of the yard's 4.5% baseline. It is weakest at Longchamp (FR) (0% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=38, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −49.20 to a £1 stake over 123 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Clement Lecoeuvre rides 30% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.3%, A/E 0.82). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.32 across 162 runners (1.9% strike, −135.10 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grand Handicap de Deauville at Deauville (FR) (Aug 2016, £34,559). The stable star of the record: Ideal King (FR) — 6 wins from 39 runs for the yard.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2009→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,058 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,058 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 October 2009 to 27 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Vaclav Luka Jr's strike rate?
- Vaclav Luka Jr has won 17 of 382 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.5% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Vaclav Luka Jr do best at?
- Deauville (AW) by strike rate: 11 wins from 137 runners (8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Vaclav Luka Jr?
- Clement Lecoeuvre, with 115 runners since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (4.3%).
- Is Vaclav Luka Jr in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Vaclav Luka Jr's Fair A/E?
- 0.69, from 381 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.