What is Brenton Avdulla's strike rate?

Brenton Avdulla has won 7 of 106 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Brenton Avdulla do best at?

Happy Valley by strike rate: 4 wins from 39 rides (10.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Brenton Avdulla's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 48 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Brenton Avdulla

106 rides in the last 5 seasons · 75 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 41 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2026→)

from 1 Jan 2022

7–106

Wins / Runs

6.6%

Strike rate

n=106

19 (18%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=48 · 0.89 incl. margin

−11.30

£1 level stake

n=48 at SP · −23.5%

£1.23m

Prize money (window)

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them.

Deterministic profile computed from 106 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance First rides: 6.7%

The read

The record is strongest at Happy Valley (10.3%, n=39), clear of the rider's 6.6% baseline. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.00). The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 2.6% over 39 rides, 4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.66 across 53 rides (5.7% strike, −8.90 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.7%+0.1

n=75 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −5.30

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

25%+18.4

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.4%+0.8

n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

When favourite

25%

n=4 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −2.40

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−6.6

n=46 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.6

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 2.6% vs 6.6% · n=39

At Happy Valley 10.3% vs 6.6% · n=39

Over 1m – 1m1f 3.1% vs 6.6% · n=32

At Sha Tin 4.5% vs 6.6% · n=67

On Good going 5.7% vs 6.6% · n=53 · A/E 0.66

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 53 3 5.7% −8.90

Good to Firm 39 1 2.6% +2.00

Good to Soft 7 0 0% −5.00

Standard (AW) 6 2 33.3% +0.00

Soft 1 1 100% +0.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sha Tin 67 3 4.5% −23.40

Happy Valley 39 4 10.3% +12.10

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 25 4 16% +11.10

Class 3 16 0 0% −11.00

Class 5 6 0 0% −5.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 1 0 0% —

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 1 25% 0.54 −2.40

2nd–3rd fav 8 2 25% 1.82 +4.10

4th–6th fav 10 1 10% 1.30 +0.00

7th+ in betting 26 1 3.8% 1.23 −13.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pocketing (AUS) 3 0 0 4 Oct 26

Raging Blizzard (NZ) 3 0 1 1 Oct 26

Jedi Spurs (AUS) 3 1 3 1 Oct 26

Thunder Prince (AUS) 3 0 1 27 Sep 26

Bustling City (AUS) 3 2 3 27 Sep 26

La Forza (AUS) 3 0 0 13 Sep 26

Stay Cosmic (AUS) 3 0 0 13 Sep 26

Take Action (NZ) 3 1 1 15 Jul 26

California Waves (AUS) 2 0 0 4 Oct 26

Trendy Rush (AUS) 2 0 1 4 Oct 26

Mister Dapper (NZ) 2 0 0 27 Sep 26

Hot Air Ballon (AUS) 2 0 0 27 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 75 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

····0116·60··

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

TrainerRWSR£1

David A Hayes 24 3 12.5% −6.40

J Size 19 2 10.5% +7.10

Jamie Richards 16 0 0% −5.00

Douglas Whyte 8 0 0% −4.00

David Eustace 8 1 12.5% +9.00

A S Cruz 6 0 0% −1.00

C S Shum 5 0 0% −2.00

P F Yiu 4 0 0% −1.00

C H Yip 4 0 0% −2.00

D J Hall 4 1 25% −3.00

W K Mo 3 0 0% −1.00

K W Lui 2 0 0% —

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2026→

Archived wins

£1.23m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 7 wins

Bustling City (AUS) — Hwamei Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Sep 2026

£150,005

Brownneedsfurther (AUS) — Deep Water Bay Handicap Happy Valley (HK) · Sep 2026

£94,359

Take Action (NZ) — Middle Gap Handicap (Course C) (Turf) Happy Valley (HK) · Jun 2026 · Class 4

£62,459

Notable horses

Bustling City (AUS) Take Action (NZ) Jedi Spurs (AUS) Holmes A Court (AUS) Grand Nova (AUS) Brownneedsfurther (AUS)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cosmic Force (AUS) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 10% of 10 runs since 2026 (5 horses). A small sample.

I Am Invincible (AUS) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 9.1% of 55 runs since 2015 (19 horses).

Per Incanto (USA) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 10.9% of 46 runs since 2026 (20 horses).

Headwater (AUS) 0% · 0–4

Progeny have won 4.8% of 21 runs since 2026 (9 horses). A small sample.

Star Turn (AUS) 0% · 0–4

Progeny have won 4.2% of 24 runs since 2026 (11 horses). A small sample.

Toronado (IRE) 0% · 0–4

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,928 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.4% from 202. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 106 · newest first

The latest 50 of 106 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 May 2026 to 4 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Pocketing (AUS)T: David A Hayes The Chinese Recreation Club Challenge Cup (Handicap)9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) California Waves (AUS)T: W K Mo Sham Tseng Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) General Redwood (NZ)T: C S Shum Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Smart City (AUS)T: P F Yiu Lo Wai Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 10th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Trendy Rush (AUS)T: Jamie Richards Kwok Shui Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 6th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Fortune Boy (NZ)T: David A Hayes Tianjin Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Virtus Glory (AUS)T: P F Yiu Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Jedi Spurs (AUS)T: David A Hayes Hangzhou Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Raging Blizzard (NZ)T: J Size The National Day Cup (Handicap)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Viva Chaleur (FR)T: A S Cruz Nanning Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Spicy Standard (AUS)T: J Size Shanghai Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Storm Rider (AUS)T: David A Hayes Magpie Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Mister Dapper (NZ)T: David Eustace Mesia Handicap8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Bustling City (AUS)T: David A Hayes Hwamei Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Hot Air Ballon (AUS)T: Douglas Whyte Tailorbird Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Thunder Prince (AUS)T: Jamie Richards Parrot Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Storming Dragon (AUS)T: Jamie Richards Mount Butler Handicap6f · Good · 12 ran — —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Symbol Of Strength (IRE)T: F C Lor Mount Butler Handicap6f · Good · 12 ran 5th —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Brownneedsfurther (AUS)T: D J Hall Deep Water Bay Handicap6f · Good · 10 ran 1st —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Mega Mastermind (AUS)T: Jamie Richards Wong Chuk Hang Handicap8f · Good · 12 ran 8th —

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brenton Avdulla's strike rate?: Brenton Avdulla has won 7 of 106 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brenton Avdulla do best at?: Happy Valley by strike rate: 4 wins from 39 rides (10.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Brenton Avdulla's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 48 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.