What is J Size's strike rate?

J Size has won 8 of 115 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does J Size do best at?

Sha Tin by strike rate: 6 wins from 86 runners (7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is J Size's Fair A/E?

0.73, from 62 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

J Size

115 runners in the last 5 seasons · 52 individual horses

As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 17 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2026→)

from 1 Jan 2022

8–115

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=115

32 (28%)

Placed

0.73

Fair A/E

n=62 · 0.60 incl. margin

+0.80

£1 level stake

n=62 at SP · +1.3%

£1.70m

Prize money (window)

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them.

Deterministic profile computed from 115 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026

The read

Debutants struggle at 2.3% (n=43, Fair A/E 0.30). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.66 across 50 runners (6% strike, −2.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8%+1.0

n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−7.0

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Debutants · first career start

2.3%−4.7

n=43 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −19.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4%−3.0

n=25 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −12.00

When favourite

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.0

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 2.3% vs 7% · n=43

On Good going 6% vs 7% · n=50 · A/E 0.66

With a new jockey booking 6.5% vs 7% · n=92 · A/E 0.76

Over 6f – 7f 7.1% vs 7% · n=70 · A/E 0.72

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 114 8 7% +0.80

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 50 3 6% −2.20

Good to Firm 47 3 6.4% −2.00

Good to Soft 12 1 8.3% −7.00

Standard (AW) 5 1 20% +12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sha Tin 86 6 7% +1.70

Happy Valley 28 2 7.1% −0.90

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 3 26 1 3.8% −18.00

Class 4 24 3 12.5% +2.80

Class 5 11 2 18.2% +27.00

Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 2 4 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 7 0 0% 0.00 −7.00

2nd–3rd fav 20 2 10% 0.65 −4.20

4th–6th fav 17 1 5.9% 0.72 −7.00

7th+ in betting 18 2 11.1% 3.63 +19.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Perfect Pairing (AUS) 5 0 1 23 Sep 26

Mickley (IRE)from Edward Bethell 4 0 0 4 Oct 26

Noble Fans (AUS) 4 1 1 1 Oct 26

Spicy Standard (AUS) 4 1 2 1 Oct 26

Master Lucky (AUS) 4 1 3 1 Oct 26

Young Champion (IRE)from J P Murtagh 4 0 0 27 Sep 26

Kingman Reef (AUS) 3 0 0 4 Oct 26

Lifeline Express (AUS) 3 0 0 4 Oct 26

Flow Water Flow (NZ) 3 0 0 4 Oct 26

Raging Blizzard (NZ) 3 0 1 1 Oct 26

Noble Deluxe (AUS) 3 1 1 27 Sep 26

Fit For Beauty (NZ) 3 0 0 13 Sep 26

All 52 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 52 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J P Murtagh (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

····098·58··

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAndrea Atzeni

26% of all rides
6.7% SR · A/E 0.66

RiderRWSR£1

Andrea Atzeni 30 2 6.7% −3.30

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2026→

Archived wins

£1.70m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 8 wins

Sky Jewellery (AUS) — Beijing Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Oct 2026

£229,041

Endued (AUS) — Spoonbill Handicap (Course C+3) (Turf) Sha Tin (HK) · Jun 2026 · Class 3

£109,438

Spicy Standard (AUS) — Edinburgh Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Sep 2026

£94,359

Notable horses

Noble Fans (AUS) Master Lucky (AUS) Spicy Standard (AUS) Noble Deluxe (AUS) Grand Nova (AUS) Take Action (NZ)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

All Too Hard (AUS) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 11.5% of 52 runs since 2008 (21 horses).

Per Incanto (USA) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 10.9% of 46 runs since 2008 (20 horses).

Toronado (IRE) 16.7% · 1–6

Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,850 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 191. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.

Pierro (AUS) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 0% of 8 runs since 2008 (4 horses). A small sample.

Shamus Award (AUS) 20% · 1–5

Progeny have won 11.4% of 35 runs since 2008 (15 horses).

Zoustar (AUS) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,739 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.3% from 329. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 115 · newest first

The latest 50 of 115 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 May 2026 to 4 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Lifeline Express (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Yau Kom Tau Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Mickley (IRE)J: K C Leung Shing Mun Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 6th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Flow Water Flow (NZ)J: Zac Purton The Chinese Recreation Club Challenge Cup (Handicap)9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 6th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Kingman Reef (AUS)J: Matthew Chadwick Sham Tseng Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Master Lucky (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni Tianjin Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Sky Jewellery (AUS)J: James Orman Beijing Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 1st —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Prime Ace (AUS)J: Karis Teetan Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 9th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Good Good (NZ)J: Karis Teetan Jinan Handicap9f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 14th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Alabama Song (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni Chengdu Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Raging Blizzard (NZ)J: Brenton Avdulla The National Day Cup (Handicap)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Noble Fans (AUS)J: Zac Purton Nanning Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Spicy Standard (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Shanghai Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Young Champion (IRE)J: M L Yeung Magpie Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 8th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Helios Express (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni The Celebration Cup (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Green Autumn (AUS)J: Karis Teetan Tailorbird Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Noble Deluxe (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni Swallow Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 12th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Kingman Reef (AUS)J: Zac Purton Parrot Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 13th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Endeared (GB)J: Andrea Atzeni Kestrel Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 10th —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Wukong Jewellery (NZ)J: Andrea Atzeni Mount Butler Handicap6f · Good · 12 ran 3rd —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Country Pride (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Deep Water Bay Handicap6f · Good · 12 ran 3rd —

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J Size's strike rate?: J Size has won 8 of 115 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J Size do best at?: Sha Tin by strike rate: 6 wins from 86 runners (7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is J Size's Fair A/E?: 0.73, from 62 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.