What is David Eustace's strike rate?

David Eustace has won 14 of 120 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Eustace do best at?

Happy Valley by strike rate: 9 wins from 45 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is David Eustace's Fair A/E?

1.59, from 60 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Eustace

120 runners in the last 5 seasons · 58 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 19 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2026→)

from 1 Jan 2022

14–120

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=120

32 (27%)

Placed

1.59

Fair A/E

n=60 · 1.30 incl. margin

+26.30

£1 level stake

n=60 at SP · +43.8%

£2.30m

Prize money (window)

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them. Horses in first-time headgear strike at 16% (32 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 120 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 23 Oct 2026

The read

The record is strongest at Happy Valley (20%, n=45), clear of the yard's 11.7% baseline. It is weakest at Sha Tin (6.8% over 74 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 15.6% (n=32, Fair A/E 1.68). The yard also reads well over 1m – 1m1f (15.4%, n=52). The record reads poorly in Class 4 — 3.1% over 32 runners, 8.6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the The National Day Cup at Sha Tin (HK) (Oct 2026, £338,722).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.7%−2.0

n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−11.7

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Debutants · first career start

10.9%−0.8

n=46 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +33.90

First-time headgear · true-first definition

15.6%+3.9

n=32 · A/E 1.68 · £1 +35.90

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−11.7

n=1 · A/E — · £1 —

When favourite

33.3%

n=3 · A/E 0.93 · £1 +0.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.1%−0.6

n=27 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −11.20

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

33.3%+21.6

n=3 · A/E 6.10 · £1 +40.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Happy Valley 20% vs 11.7% · n=45

In Class 4 3.1% vs 11.7% · n=32

At Sha Tin 6.8% vs 11.7% · n=74

Over 6f – 7f 6.9% vs 11.7% · n=58

Over 1m – 1m1f 15.4% vs 11.7% · n=52

With first-time headgear 15.6% vs 11.7% · n=32

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 119 14 11.8% +26.30

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 57 6 10.5% +30.70

Good to Firm 36 4 11.1% −9.00

Good to Soft 13 3 23.1% +11.60

Standard (AW) 13 1 7.7% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sha Tin 74 5 6.8% +6.90

Happy Valley 45 9 20% +19.40

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 32 1 3.1% −18.00

Class 3 24 0 0% −16.00

Class 5 6 2 33.3% −1.20

Class 1 4 2 50% +43.90

Class 2 1 1 100% —

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 2 50% 1.56 +2.80

2nd–3rd fav 6 1 16.7% 1.07 −1.10

4th–6th fav 13 2 15.4% 1.95 +5.60

7th+ in betting 37 2 5.4% 1.72 +19.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Glittering Legend (GB)from James Fanshawe 5 0 2 4 Oct 26

Podium (AUS) 5 0 1 23 Sep 26

Glorious Ryder (NZ) 5 0 0 13 Sep 26

Hailtothevictors (FR) 4 0 1 4 Oct 26

Francis Meynell (IRE)from M D O'Callaghan 4 0 0 1 Oct 26

Light Years Glory (IRE) 4 1 1 1 Oct 26

Central Bank (NZ) 4 0 0 27 Sep 26

Majestic Delight (AUS) 4 1 1 23 Sep 26

Inno Super (AUS) 4 0 2 23 Sep 26

Young Emperor (IRE)from J A Stack 3 0 1 23 Sep 26

Akermanis Gold (AUS) 3 1 1 23 Sep 26

Red Brick Warrior (AUS) 3 1 1 23 Sep 26

All 58 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 58 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive; 46 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

····101013·1314··

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

RiderRWSR£1

Jerry Chau 22 4 18.2% +34.80

L J Ferraris 14 1 7.1% −5.00

Zac Purton 10 2 20% −3.00

R Kingscote 9 1 11.1% +3.60

Brenton Avdulla 8 1 12.5% +9.00

Ethan Brown 8 0 0% −5.00

James Orman 6 1 16.7% −3.00

Andrea Atzeni 6 1 16.7% +1.90

J Moreira 6 2 33.3% +8.00

Angus Chung 6 0 0% −4.00

Lyle Hewitson 5 0 0% −1.00

Matthew Poon 5 0 0% −1.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2026→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.30m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 14 wins

Colourful King (AUS) — The National Day Cup (Handicap) Sha Tin (HK) · Oct 2026

£338,722

Definitive (NZ) — Muk Min Ha Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Oct 2026

£251,622

Light Years Charm (AUS) — The Lion Rock Trophy (Course B) (Handicap) (Turf) Sha Tin (HK) · May 2026 · Group 3

£224,214

Notable horses

Kyrus Treasure (NZ) Colourful King (AUS) Majestic Delight (AUS) Light Years Glory (IRE) Silvery Breeze (AUS) Red Brick Warrior (AUS)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Capitalist (AUS) 22.2% · 2–9

Progeny have won 8.5% of 82 runs since 2008 (35 horses).

Deep Field (AUS) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 8.6% of 105 runs since 2008 (41 horses).

Blue Point (IRE) 33.3% · 2–6

Progeny have won 14% of 3,398 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 17% from 336. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.6% from 208.

Too Darn Hot (GB) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 14.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (321 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.4% from 117.

All Too Hard (AUS) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 11.5% of 52 runs since 2008 (21 horses).

Dundeel (NZ) 20% · 1–5

Progeny have won 3.4% of 29 runs since 2008 (11 horses). A small sample.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 120 · newest first

The latest 50 of 120 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 May 2026 to 4 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Helene Supafeeling (IRE)J: Jerry Chau Yau Kom Tau Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Glittering Legend (GB)J: Jerry Chau The Chinese Recreation Club Challenge Cup (Handicap)9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 8th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Apolar Fighter (AUS)J: Alexis Badel The Yan Chai Trophy (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 8th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Vivacious Win (AUS)J: Zac Purton Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 10th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Loch Tay (GB)J: Harry Bentley Muk Min Ha Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 4th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Definitive (NZ)J: Karis Teetan Muk Min Ha Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 1st —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Lean Era (AUS)J: Jerry Chau Kwok Shui Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 13th —

04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Hailtothevictors (FR)J: Luke Ferraris Chai Wan Kok Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 6th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Golden Triumph (AUS)J: Luke Ferraris Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Light Years Glory (IRE)J: Luke Ferraris Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Dragon On Snow (GB)J: Richard Kingscote Jinan Handicap9f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 12th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Francis Meynell (IRE)J: Matthew Poon Chengdu Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Colourful King (AUS)J: Zac Purton The National Day Cup (Handicap)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st —

01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Winning Diamond (AUS)J: Richard Kingscote Nanning Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 6th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Mister Dapper (NZ)J: Brenton Avdulla Mesia Handicap8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 4th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Riding Together (IRE)J: Andrea Atzeni Hwamei Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th —

27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Central Bank (NZ)J: Zac Purton Swallow Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Seraph Gabriel (IRE)J: Zac Purton Tai Hang Handicap9f · Good · 12 ran 3rd —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Young Emperor (IRE)J: Luke Ferraris Mount Butler Handicap6f · Good · 12 ran 11th —

23 Sep 26 Happy Valley (HK) Inno Super (AUS)J: Jerry Chau The Hong Kong Country Club Challenge Cup (handicap)8f · Good · 12 ran — —

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Eustace's strike rate?: David Eustace has won 14 of 120 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Eustace do best at?: Happy Valley by strike rate: 9 wins from 45 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is David Eustace's Fair A/E?: 1.59, from 60 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.