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Trainer profile

David A Hayes

158 runners in the last 5 seasons · 58 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 16 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)
from 1 Jan 2022
12–158
Wins / Runs
7.6%
Strike rate
n=158
35 (22%)
Placed
0.76
Fair A/E
n=70 · 0.62 incl. margin
+2.40
£1 level stake
n=70 at SP · +3.4%
£2.15m
Prize money (window)
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them. The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (39 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 158 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.3%
The read

It is weakest at Happy Valley (3.7% over 54 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The record reads poorly on Good to Firm going — 3.6% over 56 runners, 4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.27 across 75 runners (4% strike, −38.20 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.3%+2.7
n=39 · A/E 4.24 · £1 +28.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
20%+12.4
n=5 · A/E 4.24 · £1 +28.00
Debutants · first career start
5.7%−1.9
n=53 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −30.60
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.7%−1.9
n=35 · A/E 0.84 · £1 +7.80
When favourite
25%
n=8 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −1.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10%+2.4
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Firm going 3.6% vs 7.6% · n=56
At Happy Valley 3.7% vs 7.6% · n=54
On Good going 4% vs 7.6% · n=75
At Sha Tin 9.6% vs 7.6% · n=104
Off a 15-30-day break 5.1% vs 7.6% · n=39
With debutants 5.7% vs 7.6% · n=53 · A/E 0.60
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 75 3 4% −38.20
Good to Firm 56 2 3.6% −11.00
Good to Soft 14 2 14.3% +21.00
Standard (AW) 12 4 33.3% +30.00
Soft 1 1 100% +0.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Sha Tin 104 10 9.6% −6.60
Happy Valley 54 2 3.7% +9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 36 3 8.3% +6.80
Class 3 23 0 0% −16.00
Class 2 6 1 16.7% −2.00
Class 5 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 2 25% 0.69 −1.60
2nd–3rd fav 13 1 7.7% 0.52 −9.00
4th–6th fav 9 0 0% 0.00 −9.00
7th+ in betting 40 2 5% 2.06 +22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Oriental Surprise (AUS) 5 0 5 4 Oct 26
Pocketing (AUS) 5 0 0 4 Oct 26
All Round Winner (AUS) 5 1 1 4 Oct 26
Metro Power (AUS) 5 0 0 4 Oct 26
Harmony N Blessed (AUS) 5 0 1 23 Sep 26
Positive Smile (NZ) 4 0 0 4 Oct 26
Joltin (IRE)from Noel Meade 4 0 0 4 Oct 26
Turbo Jefferies (AUS) 4 0 0 4 Oct 26
Kol (AUS) 4 1 1 4 Oct 26
Tomodachi Kokoroe (AUS) 4 0 1 1 Oct 26
Star Brose (GB) 4 0 2 1 Oct 26
Soleil Fighter (GB)from Richard Hughes 4 1 1 27 Sep 26
All 58 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 58 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
····087·913··
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderHarry Bentley
19% of all rides
6.7% SR · A/E 1.47
RiderRWSR£1
Harry Bentley 30 2 6.7% +20.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→
12
Archived wins
£2.19m
Prize money
2026
Best season · 12 wins
Ka Ying Rising (NZ) — The HKSAR Chief Executive's Cup (Handicap) - Group 3 Sha Tin (HK) · Sep 2026
£338,722
Soleil Fighter (GB) — Peacock Handicap (Course C+3) (Turf) Sha Tin (HK) · Jun 2026 · Class 2
£166,559
All Round Winner (AUS) — Shek Wai Kok Handicap Sha Tin (HK) · Oct 2026
£165,329
Notable horses
Bustling City (AUS) All Round Winner (AUS) Soleil Fighter (GB) Kol (AUS) Leaping Star (IRE) Starry Show (AUS)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 30% · 3–10
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,145 runs since 2008 (659 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,187.
Deep Field (AUS) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 8.6% of 105 runs since 2008 (41 horses).
Written Tycoon (AUS) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.4% of 35 runs since 2008 (17 horses).
Cosmic Force (AUS) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 10% of 10 runs since 2008 (5 horses). A small sample.
All Too Hard (AUS) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 11.5% of 52 runs since 2008 (21 horses).
Divine Prophet (AUS) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 9.6% of 293 runs since 2008 (20 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 162 · newest first

The latest 50 of 162 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 June 2010 to 4 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Metro Power (AUS)J: Lyle Hewitson Shing Mun Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) All Round Winner (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Shek Wai Kok Handicap8f · Standard · 11 ran 1st —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Pocketing (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla The Chinese Recreation Club Challenge Cup (Handicap)9f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Happy Promise (AUS)J: Andrea Atzeni Sham Tseng Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 10th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Positive Smile (NZ)J: Zac Purton The Yan Chai Trophy (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 9th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Leaping Star (IRE)J: Harry Bentley Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 7th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Joltin (IRE)J: Matthew Poon Sha Tsui Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 5th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Turbo Jefferies (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Lo Wai Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Kol (AUS)J: Zac Purton Kwok Shui Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 1st —
04 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Oriental Surprise (AUS)J: Zac Purton Chai Wan Kok Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Fortune Boy (NZ)J: Brenton Avdulla Tianjin Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Ka Ying Radiance (AUS)J: Matthew Poon Chongqing Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Star Brose (GB)J: M L Yeung Jinan Handicap9f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Talents Champion (AUS)J: M L Yeung Hangzhou Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 14th —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Jedi Spurs (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Hangzhou Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd —
01 Oct 26 Sha Tin (HK) Tomodachi Kokoroe (AUS)J: Harry Bentley The National Day Cup (Handicap)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th —
27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Storm Rider (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Magpie Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th —
27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Shamus Storm (AUS)J: Harry Bentley Mesia Handicap8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 3rd —
27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Soleil Fighter (GB)J: Harry Bentley The Celebration Cup (Handicap)7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th —
27 Sep 26 Sha Tin (HK) Bustling City (AUS)J: Brenton Avdulla Hwamei Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st —

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David A Hayes's strike rate?
David A Hayes has won 12 of 158 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David A Hayes do best at?
Sha Tin by strike rate: 10 wins from 104 runners (9.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is David A Hayes's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 70 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).