Brian Toomey
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 80 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (57 rides).
It is weakest at Bangor-on-Dee (0% over 33 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.8% (n=57, Fair A/E 0.91), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=165, Fair A/E 0.53). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.59 and −76.00 to a £1 stake over 146 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Tony Coyle supplied 11% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 0.79). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (24.4%, n=45). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 69 rides, 7.3pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Mar–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 748 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 748 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2006 to 14 June 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Brian Toomey's strike rate?
- Brian Toomey has won 54 of 736 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Brian Toomey do best at?
- Sedgefield by strike rate: 8 wins from 66 rides (12.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Brian Toomey ride most for?
- Tony Coyle, with 80 rides since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (8.8%).
- What is Brian Toomey's Fair A/E?
- 0.87, from 735 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.