David Bergin
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 100 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 34% (41 rides). Rode mostly for David O'Meara — 60% of rides in the window.
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 34.1% (n=41, Fair A/E 1.61), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6% (n=84, Fair A/E 0.90). David O'Meara supplied 60% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.6% vs 9.6%, A/E 0.90). The rider also read well at trips under 6f (23.1%, n=65) and off a 0-7-day break (19.7%, n=61). The record read poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0% over 38 rides, 9.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.22 across 52 rides (1.9% strike, −39.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2011→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 302 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 302 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 August 2011 to 14 December 2013.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is David Bergin's strike rate?
- David Bergin has won 29 of 302 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does David Bergin do best at?
- Redcar by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 rides (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does David Bergin ride most for?
- David O'Meara, with 181 rides since 2008 — 60% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (11.6%).
- What is David Bergin's Fair A/E?
- 0.85, from 301 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.