Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 7% (46 rides).
Deterministic profile computed from 918 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–AugFresh horses: 5.7%A & G Botti: 3.3% from 90First rides: 5.8%
The read
It is weakest at Longchamp (FR) (1.3% over 79 rides) — the widest gap in the record. A & G Botti supplies 10% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.3%, A/E 0.62). The rider also reads well on Heavy going (9.5%, n=63). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 1.3% over 78 rides, 3.6pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5.8%+0.9
n=537 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +98.45
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
6.5%+1.6
n=46 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −2.10
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5.7%+0.8
n=334 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +163.05
When favourite
58.3%
n=12 · A/E 1.92 · £1 +26.05
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
25%+20.1
n=20 · A/E 21.66 · £1 +26.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.2%−1.7
n=593 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +132.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.9
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Heavy going9.5% vs 4.9% · n=63
With headgear back on0% vs 4.9% · n=35
With new recruits1.1% vs 4.9% · n=92
At Longchamp (FR)1.3% vs 4.9% · n=79
Off a 8-14-day break1.3% vs 4.9% · n=78
With debutants8.2% vs 4.9% · n=110
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)383143.7%+52.80
Soft181116.1%+57.05
Good17184.7%−56.10
Good to Soft11754.3%−20.00
Heavy6369.5%+77.80
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville25693.5%−22.30
Chantilly (FR)233135.6%+60.10
Saint-Cloud (FR)14585.5%+134.30
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)12832.3%−36.30
Longchamp (FR)7911.3%−46.00
Vichy1616.3%−15.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer7114.3%+0.90
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux600%−6.00
Nantes5120%+2.00
Le Croise-Laroche500%−4.00
Marseille Borely400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)4125%+10.10
Le Touquet (FR)300%−3.00
Vittel3266.7%+3.50
Lyon Parilly300%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11500%−15.00
Class 4600%−6.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite14857.1%2.01+28.05
2nd–3rd fav4449.1%0.65−20.30
4th–6th fav12254.1%0.47−39.00
7th+ in betting695202.9%1.10+140.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f307123.9%+73.10
6f – 7f277145.1%+16.00
1m2f – 1m4f233166.9%+77.45
1m5f – 2m5823.4%−49.00
Under 6f3812.6%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200825520%−2.00
2009700%—
20109422.1%−64.50
20119255.4%+0.00
201211332.7%+47.00
201311254.5%−60.20
20148578.2%+86.50
20159322.2%−75.60
20166111.6%−49.50
20177268.3%+126.60
20243026.7%+39.60
20258755.7%+101.00
20264724.3%−39.35
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps614264.2%+64.70
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners393143.6%+124.40
17+ runners20052.5%+7.80
11-13 runners14674.8%−67.40
8-10 runners9755.2%+16.35
2-4 runners531324.5%+53.40
5-7 runners2800%−25.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 541 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
594531984482
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
56
Archived wins
£1.04m
Prize money
2007
Best season · 10 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,601 runs since 2008 (289 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.9% from 370. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.8% from 462. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 347.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,175 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 258. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.
Gold Away (IRE)11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,477 runs since 2008 (206 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 328. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 177.
Progeny have won 4% of 274 runs since 2012 (16 horses).
Elusive Quality (USA)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 12.3% of 3,387 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.9% from 280. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 319.
Kingsalsa (USA)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,992 runs since 2008 (284 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.6% from 111.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 951 · newest first
The latest 50 of 951 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 March 2006 to 30 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Breux's strike rate?
David Breux has won 45 of 918 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Breux do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 13 wins from 233 rides (5.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does David Breux ride most for?
A & G Botti, with 90 rides since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (3.3%).
What is David Breux's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 855 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Breux·SR 4.9%·A/E 0.93
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy