No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rode around 90 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (44 rides). Rode mostly for Tim Vaughan — 76% of rides in the window.
Deterministic profile computed from 276 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 18.7%27.6% when favouriteTim Vaughan: 13.3% from 211First rides: 12.4%LTO winners: 22.7%Claiming: 12.5%Rode the favourite in 21% of races
The read
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 22.7% (n=44, Fair A/E 0.98). Tim Vaughan supplied 76% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (13.3%, A/E 0.83). The rider also read well on Good to Firm going (21.3%, n=47) and off a break of 180+ days (17.6%, n=51). The record read poorly off a 15-30-day break — 6.7% over 75 rides, 5.3pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
12.4%+0.4
n=170 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −48.02
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
22.7%+10.7
n=44 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −15.92
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
18.7%+6.7
n=75 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +18.27
When favourite
27.6%
n=58 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −12.27
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
12.5%+0.5
n=263 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −90.52
Big fields · 14+ runners
13%+1.0
n=77 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −7.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners22.7% vs 12% · n=44
On Good to Firm going21.3% vs 12% · n=47
Off a 15-30-day break6.7% vs 12% · n=75
Off a break of 180+ days17.6% vs 12% · n=51
With new recruits17.3% vs 12% · n=52
In NH Flat races17.1% vs 12% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle162148.6%−104.77
Chase761215.8%−15.08
NH Flat35617.1%+10.33
Flat3133.3%+6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1101210.9%−46.23
Soft5247.7%−31.50
Good to Firm471021.3%+5.50
Good to Soft46510.9%−14.50
Heavy20210%−15.79
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Uttoxeter26415.4%−5.75
Worcester21419%+7.50
Market Rasen17317.6%−10.15
Chepstow17211.8%−1.50
Bangor-on-Dee15213.3%−7.67
Ffos Las1417.1%−11.00
Hereford1417.1%+3.00
Southwell12216.7%+0.25
Stratford12216.7%+4.50
Newton Abbot11327.3%−1.75
Ludlow1100%−11.00
Fontwell9111.1%−5.50
Taunton800%−8.00
Cartmel8337.5%+6.38
Exeter800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41151210.4%−71.73
Class 5871112.6%−39.04
Class 338410.5%−12.75
Class 629620.7%+27.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite641726.6%0.88−11.27
2nd–3rd fav75912%0.77−22.25
4th–6th fav6669.1%1.10−16.00
7th+ in betting7111.4%0.40−54.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m101109.9%−36.42
2m1f – 2m4f791113.9%−42.35
2m5f – 3m76810.5%−25.00
Over 3m19315.8%−7.75
1m2f – 1m4f11100%+8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200828414.3%+11.50
20091662313.9%−56.44
20108267.3%−58.58
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps146138.9%−70.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners8178.6%−36.75
8-10 runners7368.2%−51.25
14-16 runners631015.9%+6.10
5-7 runners39923.1%−3.29
17+ runners1400%−14.00
2-4 runners6116.7%−4.33
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 170 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
043251220152961785
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
33
Archived wins
£164k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 23 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mister Apple's (FR) — V-it Services Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase Cheltenham · Oct 2008 · Class 3
£7,202
Slip (GB) — Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Maiden Hurdle Stratford · Oct 2009 · Class 3
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,787 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 155.
Dubai Destination (USA)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Dr Massini (IRE)25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Jade Robbery (USA)25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 11.4% of 404 runs since 2008 (27 horses).
Kayf Tara (GB)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Rainbow Quest (USA)33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 10% of 1,384 runs since 2008 (113 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.1% from 230.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 277 · newest first
The latest 50 of 277 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 October 2007 to 17 August 2010.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Dean Coleman's strike rate?
Dean Coleman has won 33 of 276 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Dean Coleman ride most for?
Tim Vaughan, with 211 rides since 2008 — 76% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (13.3%).
What is Dean Coleman's Fair A/E?
0.85, from 276 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Dean Coleman·SR 12%·A/E 0.85
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