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Trainer profile

J Jay

229 runners in the lifetime window · 28 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2010
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
21–229
Wins / Runs
9.2%
Strike rate
n=229
61 (27%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=229 · 0.89 incl. margin
−41.67
£1 level stake
n=229 at SP · −18.2%
£93,137
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 80 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). With a claiming rider up the record reads 11% (79 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 229 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 11.1% Luke Morris: 12.1% from 66 Claiming riders: 11.4%
The read

Luke Morris rode 29% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.1% vs 9.2%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well in Class 6 (15.9%, n=88) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (14.1%, n=85). The market has also underrated the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 1.24 across 111 runners (12.6% strike, +6.33 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly on Good to Firm going — 2.4% over 42 runners, 6.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.47 across 51 runners (3.9% strike, −38.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Cambaceres at Auteuil (FR) (Nov 2005, £79,787). The stable star of the record was Tidal Fury (IRE) — 8 wins from 21 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%+1.9
n=45 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +2.58
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.2
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
12.5%+3.3
n=8 · A/E 1.78 · £1 +13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.2
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=12 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +2.58
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.4%+2.2
n=79 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −10.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 6 15.9% vs 9.2% · n=88
On Good to Firm going 2.4% vs 9.2% · n=42
In Class 5 4.3% vs 9.2% · n=92
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 14.1% vs 9.2% · n=85
Over 6f – 7f 3.9% vs 9.2% · n=51
On Standard (AW) going 12.6% vs 9.2% · n=111
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 199 19 9.5% −49.67
Hurdle 19 1 5.3% −2.00
NH Flat 6 1 16.7% +15.00
Chase 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 111 14 12.6% +6.33
Good to Firm 42 1 2.4% −39.00
Good 41 2 4.9% −25.00
Good to Soft 21 2 9.5% +4.00
Soft 9 1 11.1% +0.00
Heavy 3 1 33.3% +14.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 28 2 7.1% −5.75
Lingfield (AW) 26 5 19.2% +16.00
Southwell (AW) 25 1 4% −21.00
Kempton (AW) 23 5 21.7% +21.08
Yarmouth 10 1 10% −2.00
Brighton 9 0 0% −9.00
Chelmsford (AW) 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Newmarket 8 0 0% −8.00
Southwell 8 1 12.5% −5.00
Newmarket 6 0 0% −6.00
Folkestone 6 0 0% −6.00
Nottingham 6 0 0% −6.00
Warwick 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Doncaster 5 1 20% +3.00
Market Rasen 4 1 25% +17.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 92 4 4.3% −51.50
Class 6 88 14 15.9% +41.83
Class 4 36 3 8.3% −19.00
Class 3 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 15 5 33.3% 1.41 +3.58
2nd–3rd fav 52 8 15.4% 1.02 +1.75
4th–6th fav 63 6 9.5% 1.19 +16.00
7th+ in betting 99 2 2% 0.56 −63.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Amber Sunset (GB)then Dave Morris 23 3 5 2 Jun 10
Graylyn Ruby (FR)then Robin Dickin 22 3 8 13 Oct 09
Carlton Scroop (FR)then Tony Carroll 21 4 9 29 Jun 10
Maximus Aurelius (IRE) 18 0 5 18 May 10
Night Lily (IRE)then Paul D'Arcy 17 1 5 24 Sep 09
Crimson Mitre (GB)then Raymond York 15 2 4 5 Jan 10
Mekong Miss (GB)then Derek Shaw 14 1 4 9 Jun 10
If Only (GB)then Dave Morris 11 0 2 3 Jun 10
Terracotta Warrior (GB) 10 0 0 22 Jul 09
Azabu Juban (IRE)then E Sheehy 10 2 8 22 Dec 08
Peaceful Means (IRE)from John Mackie · then Tony Carroll 9 0 3 23 Jun 10
Raimond Ridge (IRE)from Mick Channon · then Derek Shaw 8 2 3 15 May 10
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 28 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Mackie (3); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Carroll (4) and Dave Morris (2); 11 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
2051866061862998
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLuke Morris
29% of all rides
12.1% SR · A/E 1.14
RiderRWSR£1
Luke Morris 66 8 12.1% −10.92
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
59
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£442k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 14 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tidal Fury (IRE) — Prix Cambaceres (Grande Course de Haies Des 3ans) (Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2005 · Grade 1
£79,787
Tidal Fury (IRE) — Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy (Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2005 · Grade 2
£51,064
Tidal Fury (IRE) — Prix des Platanes (Hurdle) (Colts & Geldings) Auteuil (FR) · Sep 2005
£19,745
Notable horses
Tidal Fury (IRE) Carlton Scroop (FR) The Bonus King (GB) Gaelic Roulette (IRE) So Elegant (IRE) Esthlos (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Night Shift (USA) 2.7% · 1–37
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,176 runs since 2008 (140 horses).
Monsieur Bond (IRE) 8.8% · 3–34
Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,977 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.
Limnos (JPN) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 7.9% of 619 runs since 2008 (75 horses).
Bishop of Cashel (GB) 9.1% · 2–22
Progeny have won 7.7% of 701 runs since 2008 (69 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.8% from 105.
Priolo (USA) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 9.8% of 439 runs since 2008 (62 horses).
Mark of Esteem (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,657 runs since 2008 (199 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 128.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 596 · newest first

The latest 50 of 596 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 29 June 2010.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Jun 10 Brighton Carlton Scroop (FR)J: Andrea Atzeni Brighton Family Funday Sunday 4th July HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 18/1
28 Jun 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Aggbag (GB)J: Micky Fenton Back & Lay At Betdaq Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 8/1
23 Jun 10 Bath Peaceful Means (IRE)J: Adam Beschizza Bathwick Tyres Cardiff Maiden StakesClass 5 · 11.5f · Firm · 4 ran 3rd 16/1
19 Jun 10 Newmarket Carlton Scroop (FR)J: Andrea Atzeni 32Red Poker HandicapClass 5 · 13f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 12/1
17 Jun 10 Warwick Aggbag (GB)J: Adam Beschizza TurfTV Apprentice Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 4th 7/2
10 Jun 10 Nottingham Peaceful Means (IRE)J: Micky Fenton nottinghamracecourse.co.uk Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 14/1
09 Jun 10 Kempton (AW) Mekong Miss (GB)J: Shane Kelly Digibet Casino HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 25/1
04 Jun 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Carlton Scroop (FR)J: Adam Beschizza Bet Test Match Cricket - Betdaq HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 20/1
03 Jun 10 Lingfield (AW) If Only (GB)J: Neil Callan Godfreys - Lawn & Leisure Specialist Selling Stakes (AWT)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 16/1
02 Jun 10 Kempton (AW) Amber Sunset (GB)J: Neil Callan Digibet Casino HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 6/1C
31 May 10 Towcester Saddlers Mount (IRE)J: Michael Murphy Norman Atkinson Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 4/1
30 May 10 Uttoxeter Carlton Scroop (FR)J: Michael Murphy Richard And Lisa Oldham Wedding Anniversary Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 11 ran PU 12/1
26 May 10 Southwell Peaceful Means (IRE)J: Michael Murphy Bet Totepool On 0800 221 221 Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 4/1
25 May 10 Lingfield (AW) Amber Sunset (GB)J: Neil Callan Henry Streeter Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 7/1
22 May 10 Lingfield (AW) Peaceful Means (IRE)J: Adam Beschizza T Frost (Bawtry) Racing Saddlers Maiden Stakes (Div 2) (AWT)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 40/1
21 May 10 Yarmouth Mekong Miss (GB)J: Jamie Mackay Norfolk Racing Club M.D. Thompson Electrical HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 28/1
21 May 10 Yarmouth If Only (GB)J: Jamie Mackay Norfolk Racing Club S&M Supplies (Aylsham) HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 12th 14/1
18 May 10 Brighton Maximus Aurelius (IRE)J: Adam Beschizza Racing Excellence 'hands And Heels' Apprentice Series HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 9/2
18 May 10 Brighton Carlton Scroop (FR)J: Jimmy Quinn Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 4/1
16 May 10 Market Rasen Peaceful Means (IRE)J: Dean Coleman Fussey Engineering Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 9/2F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J Jay's strike rate?
J Jay has won 21 of 229 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for J Jay?
Luke Morris, with 66 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (12.1%).
What is J Jay's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 229 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).