Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
29.6%+16.3
n=27 · A/E 2.87 · £1 +38.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−13.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−13.3
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
16.7%+3.4
n=6 · A/E 2.48 · £1 +9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−13.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +0.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−7.0
n=32 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −24.67
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m26.5% vs 13.3% · n=34
In Class 520.9% vs 13.3% · n=43
With claiming riders up6.3% vs 13.3% · n=32
In Class 49.5% vs 13.3% · n=42
Off a 31-60-day break10% vs 13.3% · n=30
On Good going15.9% vs 13.3% · n=44
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle67913.4%+13.00
Chase26415.4%−6.97
NH Flat400%−4.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good44715.9%+30.50
Soft24312.5%−11.17
Good to Soft18316.7%−6.30
Heavy700%−7.00
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Plumpton13323.1%+9.33
Fontwell1119.1%−1.00
Worcester10110%−5.00
Southwell8337.5%+13.50
Warwick700%−7.00
Lingfield7228.6%+2.50
Stratford6116.7%+17.00
Uttoxeter500%−5.00
Leicester5120%−0.80
Newton Abbot300%−3.00
Market Rasen300%−3.00
Newbury200%−2.00
Ludlow200%−2.00
Ascot200%−2.00
Fakenham200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 543920.9%+39.00
Class 44249.5%−24.97
Class 31200%−12.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%0.81−0.67
2nd–3rd fav27725.9%1.49+3.70
4th–6th fav3326.1%0.97−18.00
7th+ in betting3339.1%3.34+16.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m34926.5%+39.20
2m1f – 2m4f2913.4%−25.50
1m5f – 2m2114.8%−18.00
Over 3m13215.4%+6.33
6f – 7f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221119.1%−7.50
202334617.6%+9.70
202428310.7%+10.33
20251317.7%−7.50
202612216.7%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps571119.3%+33.53
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners3339.1%−19.47
8-10 runners30620%+3.00
11-13 runners28414.3%+24.50
2-4 runners400%−4.00
14-16 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 23 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Hill (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
8299029170252520300
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
I Have Dreamed (IRE) — Betfred Summer Plate (Listed Handicap Chase) Market Rasen · Jul 2012 · Listed
£28,475
Oliver's Hill (IRE) — Leicestershire Silver Fox Handicap Chase Leicester · Dec 2016 · Class 3
£9,495
Oliver's Hill (IRE) — Smarter Bets With Matchbook Handicap Chase Kempton · Oct 2017 · Class 3
Progeny have won 10% of 789 runs since 2008 (75 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.7% from 307. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 160.
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,208 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,354 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,354 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2005 to 1 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Lawney Hill's strike rate?
Lawney Hill has won 13 of 98 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.3% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Lawney Hill's Fair A/E?
1.46, from 98 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Lawney Hill·SR 13.3%·A/E 1.46
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