Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 10% off breaks of two months or more (40 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 107 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 30 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 10%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 10% (n=40, Fair A/E 1.86). The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (12.1%, n=33) and on Good going (10.9%, n=64). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 31 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10%+3.5
n=40 · A/E 1.86 · £1 +3.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.3%−0.2
n=16 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+18.5
n=4 · A/E 3.24 · £1 +1.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
66.7%
n=3 · A/E 2.23 · £1 +2.23
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.5
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break0% vs 6.5% · n=31
Over 2m5f – 3m12.1% vs 6.5% · n=33
On Good going10.9% vs 6.5% · n=64
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.6% vs 6.5% · n=38
In Class 58.6% vs 6.5% · n=70
With a new jockey booking8.5% vs 6.5% · n=59
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7256.9%−33.27
Chase1516.7%−3.00
Flat1200%−12.00
NH Flat8112.5%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good64710.9%−9.27
Good to Soft2000%−20.00
Soft1300%−13.00
Good to Firm400%−4.00
Heavy300%−3.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Worcester1915.3%−13.50
Newton Abbot1600%−16.00
Fontwell8112.5%−6.27
Stratford7228.6%+15.50
Wincanton700%−7.00
Exeter6116.7%+3.00
Chepstow600%−6.00
Bath500%−5.00
Lingfield300%−3.00
Hereford3133.3%+1.00
Huntingdon300%−3.00
Ffos Las300%−3.00
Taunton300%−3.00
Plumpton300%−3.00
Leicester200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57068.6%−17.00
Class 42713.7%−25.27
Class 6600%−6.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3266.7%2.23+2.23
2nd–3rd fav13215.4%1.08−3.50
4th–6th fav3625.6%0.76−8.00
7th+ in betting5511.8%0.74−43.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3812.6%−36.27
2m5f – 3m33412.1%−3.00
1m5f – 2m1516.7%−11.00
Over 3m1119.1%+8.00
1m2f – 1m4f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202240410%−10.00
20231700%−17.00
20242514%−21.00
20252328.7%−2.27
2026200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps8555.9%−36.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4124.9%−27.27
11-13 runners2913.4%−23.50
5-7 runners20315%+6.50
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
17+ runners5120%+4.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 33 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Johnny Farrelly (8) and Milton Harris (4); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard, most often for L J Morgan (4) and Keiran Burke (2); 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000231800000250
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Parlour Maid (GB) — Call Star Sports On 08000 521 321 Novices' Handicap Chase Lingfield · Jan 2019 · Class 4
£4,809
Parlour Maid (GB) — Sherwood Marquees Mares' Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Feb 2019 · Class 4
£4,614
Kilcrea Bridge (GB) — Peter Norman (Founder) Of C.O.B Construction Handicap Chase Exeter · Dec 2018 · Class 5
Progeny have won 15.9% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.9% from 554. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.5% from 211. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.8% from 692. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.7% from 138.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,827 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Kayf Tara (GB)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,746 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,914 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8% from 488. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.9% from 383.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 381 · newest first
The latest 50 of 381 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 May 2007 to 21 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026
KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 21 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 21 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
What is Richard Hawker's strike rate?
Richard Hawker has won 7 of 107 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Richard Hawker in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Richard Hawker's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 106 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Richard Hawker·SR 6.5%·A/E 1.04
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