Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−2.6
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
4%+1.4
n=25 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +12.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−2.6
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.6
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With E Lecoiffier5.6% vs 2.6% · n=36
On first rides for the horse0% vs 2.6% · n=33
Over 2m1f – 2m4f3.6% vs 2.6% · n=56 · A/E 0.56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4212.4%−5.00
Chase3412.9%−25.70
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy3912.6%−2.00
Soft3512.9%−27.70
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Good100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)4812.1%−11.00
Compiegne (FR)2214.5%−14.70
Clairefontaine (FR)400%−4.00
Granville-St Pair Sur Mer (FR)100%—
Saint-Malo (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11100%−11.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav1516.7%0.00−7.70
7th+ in betting5911.7%0.77−22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5623.6%−10.70
2m5f – 3m1200%−12.00
1m5f – 2m800%−8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222100%−20.00
20231300%−13.00
2024400%−4.00
20253525.7%+9.30
2026300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2514%+12.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2813.6%−20.70
11-13 runners1815.6%+19.00
14-16 runners1500%−15.00
5-7 runners900%−8.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 38 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·000600000100
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
20
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£835k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kami Kaze II (FR) — Prix Prince d'Ecouen (Hurdle) (Listed Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2017 · Listed
£40,385
Chouchou D'Anjou (FR) — Prix Leopold Bara (Hurdle) (Handicap) (4yo Fillies) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2025
£21,570
Royalclety (FR) — Prix Mehariste (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Jun 2019
Progeny have won 15.9% of 433 runs since 2024 (119 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 19.3% from 166. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 23.2% from 112.
Progeny have won 8.8% of 341 runs since 2013 (48 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 406 · newest first
The latest 50 of 406 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 November 2005 to 11 March 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Erwan Bureller's strike rate?
Erwan Bureller has won 2 of 76 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 2.6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Erwan Bureller do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 1 wins from 48 rides (2.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Erwan Bureller's Fair A/E?
0.46, from 74 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Erwan Bureller·SR 2.6%·A/E 0.46
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