Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.1%+4.7
n=14 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +3.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
10%+7.6
n=10 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.4
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+7.6
n=10 · A/E 2.84 · £1 +7.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−2.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.4
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1915.3%−2.00
Chase1100%−11.00
Flat1100%−11.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft1815.6%−1.00
Heavy1300%−13.00
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Good300%−3.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2100%−21.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)700%−7.00
Saint-Malo (FR)300%−3.00
Compiegne (FR)300%−3.00
Deauville (FR)200%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)200%−2.00
Clairefontaine (FR)2150%+15.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11915.3%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav400%0.00−4.00
4th–6th fav10110%1.74+7.00
7th+ in betting2600%0.00−26.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f2214.5%−5.00
1m2f – 1m4f1000%−10.00
2m5f – 3m800%−8.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20252500%−25.00
20261715.9%+0.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1500%−15.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1516.7%+2.00
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
11-13 runners900%−9.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-V Chaignon (5); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
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A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 16% of 431 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 19.3% from 166. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 23.2% from 112.
Progeny have won 13.6% of 968 runs since 2008 (129 horses). Strongest on Good going: 23.3% from 223. Weakest on Soft going: 10% from 311. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.6% from 229.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 42 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mme O Ellart's 42 archived runners, from 23 January 2025 to 24 October 2026, newest first — one winner among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mme O Ellart's strike rate?
Mme O Ellart has won 1 of 42 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.4% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mme O Ellart in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mme O Ellart's Fair A/E?
0.52, from 42 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mme O Ellart·SR 2.4%·A/E 0.52
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