Flavien Prat
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.13). When claiming the record reads 33% (107 rides).
Claiming rides have been a positive signal at 32.7% (n=107, Fair A/E 0.00), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=987, Fair A/E 1.15). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 11.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.36 and +208.20 to a £1 stake over 822 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. T Clout supplies 15% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.9%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. 20 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan Handicap at Saratoga (USA) (Jun 2026, £407,407). Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Sep.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2009→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,725 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,725 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 March 2009 to 5 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Flavien Prat's strike rate?
- Flavien Prat has won 176 of 1,725 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Flavien Prat do best at?
- Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 26 wins from 259 rides (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Flavien Prat ride most for?
- T Clout, with 265 rides since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (10.9%).
- What is Flavien Prat's Fair A/E?
- 1.13, from 1,546 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.