Garry Whillans
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 80 times a season, across both codes, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.75). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (61 rides).
The record is strongest at Newcastle (10.4%, n=77), clear of the rider's 5.6% baseline. It is weakest at Carlisle (0% over 53 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.8% (n=61, Fair A/E 0.73). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −132.12 to a £1 stake over 343 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Alistair Whillans supplied 16% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.8%, A/E 0.53). The record read poorly in Chase races — 0% over 36 rides, 5.6pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Aug–Sep.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 848 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 848 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 April 2005 to 1 July 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Garry Whillans's strike rate?
- Garry Whillans has won 45 of 808 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Garry Whillans do best at?
- Newcastle by strike rate: 8 wins from 77 rides (10.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Garry Whillans ride most for?
- Alistair Whillans, with 126 rides since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4.8%).
- What is Garry Whillans's Fair A/E?
- 0.75, from 802 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.