Ger O'Neill
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). Rode mostly for Declan Carroll — 58% of rides in the window.
First rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 7.2% (n=125, Fair A/E 0.75). Declan Carroll supplied 58% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16% vs 11.9%, A/E 1.34) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well over 1m2f – 1m4f (19.4%, n=103) and on Good to Soft going (18.8%, n=48). The record read poorly over 6f – 7f — 5.1% over 79 rides, 6.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.68 across 74 rides (5.4% strike, −21.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The standout partner of the record was Save The Bees (GB) — 5 wins from 20 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2016→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 310 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 310 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 April 2016 to 20 July 2020.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Ger O'Neill's strike rate?
- Ger O'Neill has won 37 of 310 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.9% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Ger O'Neill ride most for?
- Declan Carroll, with 181 rides since 2008 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (16%).
- What is Ger O'Neill's Fair A/E?
- 1.10, from 309 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.