What is Declan Carroll's strike rate?

Declan Carroll has won 105 of 1,116 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Declan Carroll do best at?

Chester by strike rate: 10 wins from 56 runners (17.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Declan Carroll?

Zak Wheatley, with 653 runners since 2022 — 59% of the total. That pairing has won 67 (10.3%).

Is Declan Carroll in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Declan Carroll's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 1,112 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Declan Carroll

1,116 runners in the last 5 seasons · 114 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.4% of 223 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 23 Oct 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago 97% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

105–1,116

Wins / Runs

9.4%

Strike rate

n=1,116

301 (27%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=1,112 · 0.84 incl. margin

−280.94

£1 level stake

n=1,116 at SP · −25.2%

£1.22m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 220 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 18% first time out (34 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,116 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 23 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.1% 23.9% when favourite Zak Wheatley: 10.3% from 653 New recruits: 17.6% Headgear returns: 14.9% Claiming riders: 10.4% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chester (17.9%, n=56) and Musselburgh (17%, n=53) — all clear of the yard's 9.4% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 17.6% (n=34, Fair A/E 2.37), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 3% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.39). Zak Wheatley rides 59% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.6%, n=51). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 1.8% over 57 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes at York (Aug 2025, £141,775). The stable star of the record: Save The Bees (GB) — 14 wins from 110 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.1%+0.7

n=159 · A/E 1.49 · £1 −10.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

17.6%+8.2

n=34 · A/E 2.37 · £1 +26.00

Debutants · first career start

6.8%−2.6

n=59 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −2.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3%−6.4

n=33 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −29.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

14.9%+5.5

n=47 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +15.00

When favourite

23.9%

n=88 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −19.64

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.4%+1.0

n=598 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −71.23

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.1%−0.3

n=11 · A/E 1.63 · £1 −3.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Chester 17.9% vs 9.4% · n=56

Off a 0-7-day break 17.6% vs 9.4% · n=51

In Class 3 1.8% vs 9.4% · n=57

At Musselburgh 17% vs 9.4% · n=53

With new recruits 17.6% vs 9.4% · n=34

On Heavy going 2.3% vs 9.4% · n=44

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,082 105 9.7% −246.94

Hurdle 27 0 0% −27.00

Chase 6 0 0% −6.00

NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 317 30 9.5% −66.26

Standard (AW) 219 24 11% +14.08

Good to Firm 185 16 8.6% −79.22

Good to Soft 177 17 9.6% −35.13

Soft 174 17 9.8% −73.41

Heavy 44 1 2.3% −41.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 143 18 12.6% −6.25

Thirsk 115 12 10.4% −30.12

Redcar 93 6 6.5% −61.50

Catterick 92 13 14.1% +56.38

Beverley 86 9 10.5% −35.47

Pontefract 60 4 6.7% −9.50

Doncaster 60 4 6.7% −33.42

Chester 56 10 17.9% +23.83

Musselburgh 53 9 17% +1.78

Nottingham 40 1 2.5% −37.50

Newcastle (AW) 37 1 2.7% +14.00

York 33 1 3% −25.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 32 3 9.4% −16.67

Haydock 30 1 3.3% −22.00

Carlisle 27 4 14.8% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 398 33 8.3% −115.76

Class 6 393 52 13.2% −1.89

Class 4 215 16 7.4% −92.29

Class 3 57 1 1.8% −47.50

Class 2 40 2 5% −18.00

Class 1 11 1 9.1% −3.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 113 25 22.1% 0.84 −25.39

2nd–3rd fav 225 45 20% 1.28 +25.95

4th–6th fav 340 25 7.4% 0.96 −82.50

7th+ in betting 438 10 2.3% 0.66 −199.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fortunate Star (IRE)then Stephen Hanlon 44 5 13 7 Oct 25

Irish Dancer (IRE) 40 5 16 17 Aug 26

Asmund (IRE)from K R Burke 38 3 9 1 Nov 24

Rwenearlytheredad (GB) 35 6 11 12 Oct 26

Thankuappreciate (GB)from Nigel Tinkler · then Tony Carroll 34 3 11 11 Apr 26

Natchez Trace (GB)from D K Weld 34 3 10 26 Nov 24

Dr Rio (FR)from Paul Midgley 33 5 10 16 Sep 26

Willolarupi (IRE) 32 3 13 10 Oct 26

King Of Tonga (IRE)from David O'Meara 31 6 14 13 Jul 24

Changeofmind (IRE) 28 3 7 19 Oct 26

Emiyn (FR)from D K Weld 27 2 10 21 Jul 25

Fuji Mountain (IRE) 24 2 6 16 Jun 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 114 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from D K Weld (5) and Phillip Makin (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Carroll (3) and Steph Hollinshead (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

0941099159871310

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderZak Wheatley

59% of all rides
10.3% SR · A/E 1.12

RiderRWSR£1

Zak Wheatley 653 67 10.3% −102.10

Harrison Shaw 227 21 9.3% −62.96

Harry Smith 37 5 13.5% −5.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

487

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.98m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 34 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lifeplan (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Tom Lacy) York · Aug 2025 · Group 2

£141,775

Whozthecat (IRE) — Boylesports.com Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jul 2013

£60,000

Emiyn (FR) — Deepbridge Watergate Cup Handicap Chester · Sep 2022 · Class 2

£51,025

Notable horses

Save The Bees (GB) Whozthecat (IRE) Birkside (GB) Green Park (IRE) Musharrif (GB) Mysterial (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 6.8% · 7–103

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,823 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Camacho (GB) 8% · 4–50

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,320 runs since 2008 (596 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 8% · 4–50

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,542 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Unfortunately (IRE) 11.4% · 5–44

Progeny have won 9.4% of 660 runs since 2008 (46 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.6% from 236.

Galileo Gold (GB) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,025 runs since 2008 (174 horses).

Sioux Nation (USA) 12.8% · 5–39

Progeny have won 12.4% of 2,874 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.2% from 425. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 577. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.8% from 189.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,248 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,248 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Changeofmind (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 11/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Paphos (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 20/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Youngheartsrunfree (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 40/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Avatar Jet (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 9/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Sujet (GB)J: Zak Wheatley M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 80/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Solid Bond (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 5/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Rwenearlytheredad (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Musselburgh Members Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 4/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bondi (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Gents Night Saturday 24th October Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 18/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Willolarupi (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 100/30

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Kasgani (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 16/1

06 Oct 26 Leicester Ma Fille De Reve (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 8th 4/1F

06 Oct 26 Leicester Paphos (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Alan & Sarah #laughterloft Legends Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 10/1

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Solid Bond (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Constant Security Services Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 10th 15/2

03 Oct 26 Redcar Alessia Fernanda (IRE)J: Cian Horgan Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 12/1

03 Oct 26 Ascot Lifeplan (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 11th 12/1

30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Rwenearlytheredad (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Invades Day Party Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 9/1

30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Sod Hall Lane (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley British Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 2nd 1/9F

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Hickton (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 14/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Solid Bond (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Phoenix Drilling Ground Investigation Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 12/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Changeofmind (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Barbara Ann Letham And Son Johnathan Memorial Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Declan Carroll's strike rate?: Declan Carroll has won 105 of 1,116 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Declan Carroll do best at?: Chester by strike rate: 10 wins from 56 runners (17.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Declan Carroll?: Zak Wheatley, with 653 runners since 2022 — 59% of the total. That pairing has won 67 (10.3%).
Is Declan Carroll in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Declan Carroll's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 1,112 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.