Henry Oliver
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 100 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.15). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 25% (52 rides). Rode mostly for Sue Smith — 62% of rides in the window.
It is weakest at Uttoxeter (2.9% over 35 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 25% (n=52, Fair A/E 1.58). Sue Smith supplied 62% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.3%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well in Class 2 (28.1%, n=32) and on Heavy going (17%, n=53). The record read poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 5.6% over 180 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfred Goals Galore Hurdle at Haydock (Feb 2012, £18,509). The standout partner of the record was Restless Harry (GB) — 6 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Oct–Nov.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,180 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,180 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 5 December 2013.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Henry Oliver's strike rate?
- Henry Oliver has won 59 of 589 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Henry Oliver do best at?
- Carlisle by strike rate: 5 wins from 30 rides (16.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Henry Oliver ride most for?
- Sue Smith, with 364 rides since 2008 — 62% of the total. That pairing has won 41 (11.3%).
- What is Henry Oliver's Fair A/E?
- 1.15, from 589 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.