What is Jack Duern's strike rate?

Jack Duern has won 85 of 1,118 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jack Duern do best at?

Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 rides (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jack Duern ride most for?

Dean Ivory, with 295 rides since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (6.4%).

What is Jack Duern's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 1,115 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jack Duern

1,118 rides in the lifetime window · 405 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2022 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

85–1,118

Wins / Runs

7.6%

Strike rate

n=1,118

258 (23%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=1,115 · 0.83 incl. margin

−191.22

£1 level stake

n=1,118 at SP · −17.1%

£657k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (90 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,118 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 26.1% when favourite Dean Ivory: 6.4% from 295 LTO winners: 14.4% Claiming: 7.9% Rides the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Bath (20.6%, n=34), clear of the rider's 7.6% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.4% (n=90, Fair A/E 1.01), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1.8% (n=114, Fair A/E 0.37). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +5.00 to a £1 stake over 151 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −104.75 to a £1 stake over 405 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Dean Ivory supplies 26% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.4%, A/E 0.80). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 2.9% over 69 rides, 4.7pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Lucymai (GB) — 5 wins from 17 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.4%−3.2

n=405 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −104.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.4%+6.8

n=90 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −0.62

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6%−1.6

n=151 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +5.00

When favourite

26.1%

n=46 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −10.22

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.9%+0.3

n=1,037 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −148.22

Big fields · 14+ runners

1.8%−5.8

n=114 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −97.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.6

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Bath 20.6% vs 7.6% · n=34

On last-time-out winners 14.4% vs 7.6% · n=90

With headgear back on 0% vs 7.6% · n=47

With Steph Hollinshead 0% vs 7.6% · n=35

With C&D winners 12.1% vs 7.6% · n=247

On Good to Soft going 2.9% vs 7.6% · n=69

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 725 50 6.9% −167.60

Good 134 11 8.2% −12.50

Good to Firm 103 11 10.7% +40.50

Good to Soft 69 2 2.9% −37.00

Soft 56 7 12.5% +1.38

Firm 19 4 21.1% −4.00

Heavy 12 0 0% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 351 20 5.7% −131.22

Kempton 112 7 6.3% +7.50

Lingfield (AW) 99 9 9.1% −17.88

Southwell (AW) 92 9 9.8% +9.50

Chelmsford (AW) 67 5 7.5% −31.50

Bath 34 7 20.6% +16.50

Windsor 32 3 9.4% −17.75

Nottingham 29 3 10.3% +12.00

Doncaster 26 1 3.8% −11.00

Haydock 25 1 4% +4.00

Yarmouth 25 0 0% −25.00

Warwick 22 1 4.5% −7.00

Leicester 21 0 0% −21.00

Epsom Downs 16 4 25% +29.50

Brighton 16 0 0% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 489 34 7% −120.60

Class 5 342 24 7% −103.62

Class 4 159 14 8.8% +28.75

Class 3 56 7 12.5% +11.25

Class 2 44 4 9.1% −22.00

Class 7 21 2 9.5% +22.00

Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 67 15 22.4% 0.89 −19.72

2nd–3rd fav 182 21 11.5% 0.73 −47.50

4th–6th fav 351 31 8.8% 1.15 −38.00

7th+ in betting 518 18 3.5% 1.07 −86.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mount Hollow (GB) 26 4 8 22 Nov 14

Spanish Plume (GB) 22 2 9 11 Sep 14

Lucymai (GB) 17 5 9 2 Jan 19

Cadmium Loch (GB) 16 2 6 19 Apr 14

Bilash (GB) 15 3 4 18 Aug 17

Look For Love (GB) 15 1 6 29 Mar 12

Badenscoth (GB) 14 2 4 26 Jan 19

Nezar (IRE) 13 1 3 25 Mar 19

Lacey (GB) 13 1 4 3 Dec 16

Eastern Magic (GB) 13 2 6 22 Nov 14

Lord Paget (GB) 13 0 3 8 Mar 13

Pablo Del Pueblo (IRE) 12 3 5 21 Jul 22

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 405 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

97981149814493

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDean Ivory

26% of all rides
6.4% SR · A/E 0.80

TrainerRWSR£1

Dean Ivory 295 19 6.4% −136.00

Reg Hollinshead 156 9 5.8% −75.97

Andrew Hollinshead 120 14 11.7% +7.00

Simon Dow 116 12 10.3% +41.87

Scott Dixon 86 6 7% +8.00

Mark Brisbourne 58 5 8.6% +20.25

Michael Appleby 41 4 9.8% +5.50

Steph Hollinshead 35 0 0% −35.00

Sarah Hollinshead 30 2 6.7% +10.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

Archived wins

£657k

Prize money

2014

Best season · 20 wins

Lucymai (GB) — Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com Fairwood Fillies' Handicap Chelmsford (AW) · Aug 2018 · Class 2

£31,125

Lucymai (GB) — Bet Exacta At Totesport.com Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · May 2018 · Class 2

£16,173

Fine Wine (FR) — Paddy Power 'Making Flat Less Flat' Handicap York · May 2022 · Class 2

£15,462

Notable horses

Lucymai (GB) Mount Hollow (GB) Bilash (GB) Pablo Del Pueblo (IRE) Brocklebank (IRE) Presumido (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Needwood Blade (GB) 9.5% · 4–42

Progeny have won 7.9% of 2,746 runs since 2008 (187 horses).

Beat Hollow (GB) 13.8% · 4–29

Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,034 runs since 2008 (412 horses).

Multiplex (GB) 21.4% · 6–28

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,181 runs since 2011 (291 horses).

Ishiguru (USA) 18.5% · 5–27

Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.

Acclamation (GB) 0% · 0–26

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Striking Ambition (GB) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 7.5% of 682 runs since 2010 (45 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.3% from 277.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,118 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,118 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 September 2010 to 28 July 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Blairlogie (GB)T: Laura Mongan Watch Racing Online Free With Coral Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 40/1

23 Jul 22 Lingfield (AW) Hector Loza (GB)T: Jim Boyle Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 535 HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 6/1

21 Jul 22 Sandown Pablo Del Pueblo (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Oxshott HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 6/1

20 Jul 22 Southwell (AW) Rebel Redemption (GB)T: Scott Dixon Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 6th 14/1

14 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Canagat (GB)T: Jim Boyle Watch Racing Online Free With Coral Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 15/2

09 Jul 22 Salisbury Candy Warhol (USA)T: Scott Dixon Tony Brown 80th Birthday Celebration Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 11/1

07 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Canagat (GB)T: Jim Boyle Coral Proud Supporter Of British Racing HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 13/2

07 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Pablo Del Pueblo (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Coral 'Get Closer To The Action' HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 4/1

07 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Hector Loza (GB)T: Jim Boyle Coral 'Beaten-By-A-Length' Free Bet HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 13/2

07 Jul 22 Epsom Downs Just An Inkling (GB)T: Jim Boyle Watch Racing Online Free With Coral HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 2nd 18/1

06 Jul 22 Lingfield (AW) Blue Beret (GB)T: Jim Boyle Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Selling HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 9/1

05 Jul 22 Wolverhampton (AW) Coast (GB)T: Scott Dixon Swiss Steel UK Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 25/1

05 Jul 22 Wolverhampton (AW) Country Charm (GB)T: Scott Dixon Making Employment Thrive MET HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 22/1

01 Jul 22 Doncaster Banana (GB)T: Scott Dixon CNG Switch Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 7th 9/1

01 Jul 22 Doncaster Marnie James (GB)T: Scott Dixon Betfair Daily Rewards HandicapClass 2 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 25/1

01 Jul 22 Doncaster Gypsy Whisper (GB)T: Scott Dixon George Smith Horseboxes Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 14/1

30 Jun 22 Epsom Downs Blue Beret (GB)T: Jim Boyle Racing Staff Week HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 10 ran 6th 9/1

30 Jun 22 Epsom Downs Canagat (GB)T: Jim Boyle Coral Play 'Racing-Super-Series' For Free HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 28/1

27 Jun 22 Pontefract Visibility (IRE)T: Scott Dixon 'our Mums' Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 11/2

24 Jun 22 Yarmouth Thermometer (IRE)T: Scott Dixon Quinnbet HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Good To Firm · 5 ran PU 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jack Duern's strike rate?: Jack Duern has won 85 of 1,118 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jack Duern do best at?: Bath by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 rides (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jack Duern ride most for?: Dean Ivory, with 295 rides since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (6.4%).
What is Jack Duern's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 1,115 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.