No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rode around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). Rode mostly for Marcus Tregoning — 48% of rides in the window.
Deterministic profile computed from 178 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceMarcus Tregoning: 10.5% from 86First rides: 8.5%Claiming: 8.7%
The read
Marcus Tregoning supplied 48% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.5% vs 8.4%, A/E 1.20) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well over 1m2f – 1m4f (17.1%, n=41). The record read poorly over 6f – 7f — 3.2% over 63 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.69 across 62 rides (4.8% strike, −27.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
8.5%+0.1
n=82 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +5.25
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
44.4%+36.0
n=9 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
14.8%+6.4
n=27 · A/E 1.48 · £1 −1.25
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −1.75
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.7%+0.3
n=172 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −32.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.7%−2.7
n=35 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −25.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f17.1% vs 8.4% · n=41
Over 6f – 7f3.2% vs 8.4% · n=63
With Alastair Lidderdale3.9% vs 8.4% · n=51
On Standard (AW) going4.8% vs 8.4% · n=62
With Marcus Tregoning10.5% vs 8.4% · n=86
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6234.8%−27.00
Good4249.5%−9.75
Good to Firm4149.8%+17.00
Good to Soft12216.7%−4.75
Soft1100%−11.00
Firm500%−5.00
Heavy5240%+2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)2713.7%−21.00
Bath21419%+14.00
Wolverhampton (AW)1915.3%−11.00
Lingfield (AW)1516.7%+6.00
Brighton1317.7%−4.50
Folkestone1200%−12.00
Newbury800%−8.00
Salisbury7114.3%−0.50
Goodwood6116.7%−1.00
Lingfield600%−6.00
Chepstow6116.7%−2.25
Sandown5120%+29.00
Windsor500%−5.00
Ffos Las5120%−1.75
Leicester4125%+0.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 67867.7%−18.00
Class 57579.3%−3.75
Class 41915.3%−15.75
Class 33133.3%+2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 7100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8225%0.97+1.25
2nd–3rd fav34720.6%1.39−3.25
4th–6th fav6046.7%0.90−11.50
7th+ in betting7622.6%0.79−25.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f6323.2%−23.00
1m – 1m1f5846.9%−24.00
1m2f – 1m4f41717.1%+16.25
1m5f – 2m9222.2%−0.75
Under 6f600%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200813215.4%+4.50
20099111.1%−3.00
20103500%−35.00
20116469.4%−6.00
201249612.2%+9.00
2014800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps130129.2%−19.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners5758.8%−10.00
11-13 runners5547.3%+12.50
14-16 runners3525.7%−25.25
5-7 runners28414.3%−12.75
2-4 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 84 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000111284191000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
15
Archived wins
£74,742
Prize money
2012
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,325 runs since 2009 (596 horses).
Mujahid (USA)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,375 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 333.
Primo Valentino (IRE)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,160 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.2% from 181. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 3.3% from 183.
Mark of Esteem (IRE)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,657 runs since 2008 (199 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 128.
Dixieland Band (USA)20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 6.5% of 184 runs since 2008 (23 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 186 · newest first
The latest 50 of 186 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 July 2005 to 3 July 2014.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Katia Scallan's strike rate?
Katia Scallan has won 15 of 178 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Katia Scallan ride most for?
Marcus Tregoning, with 86 rides since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (10.5%).
What is Katia Scallan's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 177 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Katia Scallan·SR 8.4%·A/E 1.06
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