Keith Moriarty
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 50 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.81). Rode mostly for Albert Moriarty — 45% of rides in the window.
The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −103.75 to a £1 stake over 144 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Albert Moriarty supplied 45% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (2.7%, A/E 0.75). The record read poorly on Good going — 0% over 48 rides, 3.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.45 across 53 rides (1.9% strike, −32.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2014→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 246 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 246 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 14 June 2014 to 13 October 2018.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Keith Moriarty's strike rate?
- Keith Moriarty has won 9 of 246 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Keith Moriarty do best at?
- Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 77 rides (5.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Keith Moriarty ride most for?
- Albert Moriarty, with 110 rides since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (2.7%).
- What is Keith Moriarty's Fair A/E?
- 0.81, from 246 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.