What is Mr M N Doran's strike rate?

Mr M N Doran has won 32 of 445 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Mr M N Doran do best at?

Limerick by strike rate: 8 wins from 34 rides (23.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Mr M N Doran ride most for?

Paul Nolan, with 215 rides since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (11.2%).

What is Mr M N Doran's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 445 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Mr M N Doran

445 rides in the lifetime window · 208 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2015 99% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

32–445

Wins / Runs

7.2%

Strike rate

n=445

102 (23%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=445 · 0.78 incl. margin

−192.92

£1 level stake

n=445 at SP · −43.4%

£419k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03). Rode mostly for Paul Nolan — 48% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 445 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Mar–Apr Paul Nolan: 11.2% from 215

The read

The record is strongest at Limerick (23.5%, n=34), clear of the rider's 7.2% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.2% (n=95, Fair A/E 0.66). Paul Nolan supplied 48% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.2% vs 7.2%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 31-60-day break (10.7%, n=84) and in NH Flat races (10.6%, n=66). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase at Limerick (Mar 2011, £27,625). Seasonally, the rider fired Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.3%−0.9

n=208 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −84.67

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.1%+1.9

n=22 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −6.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4.2%−3.0

n=95 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −38.17

When favourite

38.9%

n=18 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +1.83

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.8%−0.4

n=429 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −196.92

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.9%−2.3

n=285 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −164.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.7%+0.5

n=26 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Limerick 23.5% vs 7.2% · n=34

With Paul Martin Pierce 0% vs 7.2% · n=30

With Paul Nolan 11.2% vs 7.2% · n=215

With debutants 2.3% vs 7.2% · n=43

Off a 31-60-day break 10.7% vs 7.2% · n=84

In NH Flat races 10.6% vs 7.2% · n=66

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 269 16 5.9% −139.92

Chase 107 9 8.4% −47.00

NH Flat 66 7 10.6% −3.00

Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 141 10 7.1% −77.42

Heavy 118 9 7.6% −46.50

Good 104 7 6.7% −36.50

Good to Firm 60 3 5% −31.00

Good to Soft 19 3 15.8% +1.50

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 48 2 4.2% −33.50

Wexford 46 3 6.5% −22.50

Cork 34 2 5.9% −25.00

Limerick 34 8 23.5% +5.58

Thurles 26 2 7.7% −5.50

Gowran Park 23 0 0% −23.00

Navan 21 1 4.8% −17.50

Naas 20 1 5% −7.00

Kilbeggan 19 1 5.3% −14.50

Clonmel 19 2 10.5% +11.00

Down Royal 18 3 16.7% +6.00

Tramore 18 2 11.1% +2.00

Fairyhouse 16 0 0% −16.00

Listowel 14 1 7.1% −9.00

Killarney 13 0 0% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 26 2 7.7% −10.00

Class 2 1 1 100% +14.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 22 7 31.8% 1.41 −2.17

2nd–3rd fav 79 12 15.2% 1.14 +4.75

4th–6th fav 124 10 8.1% 1.17 −22.50

7th+ in betting 220 3 1.4% 0.43 −173.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.6% completed · 376 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 107 72.9% 7 3 18 0 1

Hurdle 269 90.7% 8 0 16 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Flight Control (IRE) 16 1 3 10 Jun 13

Best Of Bocelli (IRE) 14 1 4 6 Aug 13

Golden Sunbird (IRE) 10 4 6 28 Apr 12

Gala Dancer (IRE) 8 1 1 6 May 13

Rising Time (IRE) 8 2 4 22 Apr 13

Far Away So Close (IRE) 7 2 3 19 Sep 13

King Vuvuzela (IRE) 7 0 0 1 Apr 13

Offside Rule (IRE) 7 0 2 8 Nov 12

Would You Do That (IRE) 7 0 4 24 Nov 11

Carrigeen Eile (IRE) 7 0 0 12 Mar 11

Ciarans Oscar (IRE) 6 0 2 25 Jul 13

Tico (IRE) 6 1 3 31 May 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 208 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

68129803585165

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPaul Nolan

48% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 1.23

TrainerRWSR£1

Paul Nolan 215 24 11.2% −45.42

Michael Cullen 42 2 4.8% −28.50

Paul Martin Pierce 30 0 0% −30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£419k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 12 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Aura About You (IRE) — I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase (grade 3) Limerick · Mar 2011 · Grade 3

£27,625

Far Away So Close (IRE) — John Smith's Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders) Aintree · Apr 2011 · Class 2

£25,048

Golden Sunbird (IRE) — Kerry Group E.B.F. Mares Novice Hurdle (listed) Limerick · Mar 2011 · Listed

£18,200

Notable horses

Golden Sunbird (IRE) Rising Time (IRE) Far Away So Close (IRE) Aura About You (IRE) Flight Control (IRE) Best Of Bocelli (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Milan (GB) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,876 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Old Vic (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).

Bob Back (USA) 25% · 5–20

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Anshan (GB) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Lahib (USA) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 447 · newest first

The latest 50 of 447 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 May 2007 to 17 July 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Jul 15 Kilbeggan Sting Jet (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Sean Kane 70th Birthday Remembrance Flat Race19.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 8/1

22 Jun 15 Kilbeggan Sting Jet (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Racing Again July 17th Flat Race16f · Good · 16 ran 5th 20/1

17 Jun 15 Wexford Hasiteasy (IRE)T: Peter Croke Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Flat Race16f · Good · 12 ran 5th 12/1

06 Jun 15 Limerick Wecafrory (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. (Mares) Flat Race16f · Good · 16 ran 16th 66/1

01 Jun 15 Listowel Star In The Dark (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Dr. Louis O'carroll Flat Race20f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 16/1

12 May 15 Limerick Goodbloodbadblood (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran 16th 7/1

04 May 15 Down Royal Cerise Vole (IRE)T: C A Murphy Down Royal Flat Race16f · Yielding · 20 ran 13th 25/1

28 Apr 15 Punchestown Rooster Byron (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Goffs Land Rover Bumper16f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 14th 25/1

21 Apr 15 Wexford Pauleen O'connell (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Flat Race18f · Good · 14 ran 9th 9/1

10 Apr 15 Wexford Hasiteasy (IRE)T: Peter Croke Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Flat Race16f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 20/1

28 Feb 15 Leopardstown Hasiteasy (IRE)T: Peter Croke Killiney (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 25/1

15 Feb 15 Navan Tuzo (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Flower Hill (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 9/2

31 Jan 15 Fairyhouse Sceal Eile (IRE)T: Anthony Mullins 85 Arkle Package On Easter Monday Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 8th 50/1

11 Jan 15 Fairyhouse Tuzo (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Oliver Russell Lifetime Services To The Ward Union Hunt (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 16/1

05 Jan 15 Thurles Pauleen O'connell (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Holycross Mares Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 13th 16/1

29 Dec 14 Limerick Merry Westerner (IRE)T: C A Murphy Happy New Year From All At Limerick Racecourse Flat Race18f · Heavy · 10 ran 1st 9/2

27 Dec 14 Leopardstown Coolfore Jack (IRE)T: C A Murphy Paddy Power iPad App Flat Race20f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 25/1

26 Dec 14 Limerick Shadow Play (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar And Land Rover Flat Race16f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 8/1

26 Dec 14 Limerick Supreme Hope (IRE)T: Paul Nolan GGL Security Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Heavy · 18 ran 17th 66/1

07 Dec 14 Cork Pauleen O'connell (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Galtee (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Heavy · 15 ran 5th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr M N Doran's strike rate?: Mr M N Doran has won 32 of 445 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mr M N Doran do best at?: Limerick by strike rate: 8 wins from 34 rides (23.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Mr M N Doran ride most for?: Paul Nolan, with 215 rides since 2008 — 48% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (11.2%).
What is Mr M N Doran's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 445 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.