What is Neil Farley's strike rate?

Neil Farley has won 127 of 1,695 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Neil Farley do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 107 rides (11.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Neil Farley ride most for?

Declan Carroll, with 585 rides since 2008 — 35% of the total. That pairing has won 50 (8.5%).

What is Neil Farley's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 1,680 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Neil Farley

1,695 rides in the lifetime window · 600 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2017 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

127–1,695

Wins / Runs

7.5%

Strike rate

n=1,695

376 (22%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=1,680 · 0.85 incl. margin

−662.92

£1 level stake

n=1,695 at SP · −39.1%

£934k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 190 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 18% (143 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,695 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 29.1% when favourite Declan Carroll: 8.5% from 585 LTO winners: 17.5% Claiming: 7.9% Rode the favourite in 5% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.5% (n=143, Fair A/E 1.30), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4% (n=226, Fair A/E 0.79). Declan Carroll supplied 35% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.5%, A/E 0.96). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (16.4%, n=214). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2% over 101 rides, 5.5pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was Red Baron (IRE) — 7 wins from 37 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.7%−1.8

n=600 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −244.59

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.5%+10.0

n=143 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −6.44

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4%−3.5

n=226 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −135.25

When favourite

29.1%

n=79 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +4.84

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.9%+0.4

n=1,183 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −454.42

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.2%−2.3

n=310 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −103.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.5

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 17.5% vs 7.5% · n=143

Off a 0-7-day break 16.4% vs 7.5% · n=214

With Eric Alston 14.1% vs 7.5% · n=255

With new recruits 0% vs 7.5% · n=61

With Andrew Crook 1.4% vs 7.5% · n=74

Off a break of 180+ days 2% vs 7.5% · n=101

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 495 26 5.3% −265.67

Good to Firm 397 33 8.3% −127.82

Standard (AW) 286 25 8.7% −131.67

Good to Soft 260 26 10% −36.92

Soft 211 11 5.2% −149.09

Heavy 44 6 13.6% +50.25

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 136 10 7.4% −74.92

Redcar 132 6 4.5% −59.50

Thirsk 113 8 7.1% −56.50

Musselburgh 111 12 10.8% −26.34

Hamilton 111 12 10.8% −22.00

Ayr 109 4 3.7% −76.00

Southwell (AW) 107 12 11.2% −33.75

Catterick 100 10 10% −24.88

Carlisle 77 4 5.2% −55.09

Doncaster 76 8 10.5% +27.50

Beverley 75 4 5.3% −6.00

Haydock 69 4 5.8% −38.17

Chester 68 4 5.9% −45.00

Newcastle 65 3 4.6% −32.00

Pontefract 64 4 6.3% −39.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 610 42 6.9% −283.47

Class 6 522 44 8.4% −194.19

Class 4 347 27 7.8% −130.26

Class 3 114 9 7.9% +2.50

Class 2 80 5 6.3% −35.50

Class 7 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 113 30 26.5% 1.22 +9.17

2nd–3rd fav 219 42 19.2% 1.22 +5.41

4th–6th fav 507 39 7.7% 0.99 −171.50

7th+ in betting 856 16 1.9% 0.55 −506.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Red Baron (IRE) 37 7 15 15 Apr 17

Green Park (IRE) 31 3 8 29 Oct 13

Whats For Pudding (IRE) 29 3 6 2 Oct 12

Whozthecat (IRE) 26 1 5 14 May 16

Illustrious Prince (IRE) 23 4 8 18 Nov 13

Grand Stitch (USA) 21 2 4 25 Jul 12

Hits Only Jude (IRE) 21 2 8 11 May 12

Niqnaaqpaadiwaaq (GB) 20 1 5 12 Oct 17

Lord Franklin (GB) 19 5 8 15 Jul 17

Casterbridge (GB) 18 3 4 16 Sep 17

Save The Bees (GB) 17 1 3 1 May 17

Invincible Ridge (IRE) 16 2 3 11 Nov 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 600 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

871275871076914

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDeclan Carroll

35% of all rides
8.5% SR · A/E 0.96

TrainerRWSR£1

Declan Carroll 585 50 8.5% −131.97

Eric Alston 255 36 14.1% +0.74

Alan Swinbank 121 9 7.4% −74.63

Andrew Crook 74 1 1.4% −66.00

Patrick Holmes 70 5 7.1% −32.17

Noel Wilson 56 5 8.9% −10.00

Robin Bastiman 49 1 2% −44.50

Jim Goldie 45 3 6.7% −19.50

Shaun Harris 43 5 11.6% −12.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

127

Archived wins

£934k

Prize money

2015

Best season · 24 wins

Red Baron (IRE) — William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup (Heritage Handicap) Musselburgh · Jun 2015 · Class 2

£62,250

Lexington Bay (IRE) — Stainless Wire Handicap Haydock · Sep 2011 · Class 2

£19,407

Ridge Ranger (IRE) — Weatherbys Private Banking Stakes (Handicap) Goodwood · Jul 2015 · Class 2

£19,407

Notable horses

Red Baron (IRE) Lord Franklin (GB) Illustrious Prince (IRE) Final Venture (GB) Green Park (IRE) Whats For Pudding (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Moss Vale (IRE) 17.7% · 11–62

Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,012 runs since 2008 (145 horses).

Kheleyf (USA) 9.6% · 5–52

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,543 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Acclamation (GB) 10.4% · 5–48

Progeny have won 10% of 19,685 runs since 2008 (1,326 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 10.8% · 4–37

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,818 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

One Cool Cat (USA) 2.7% · 1–37

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.

Kyllachy (GB) 0% · 0–33

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,695 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,695 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 April 2009 to 11 November 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Nov 17 Wolverhampton (AW) Invincible Ridge (IRE)T: Eric Alston Betway Sprint HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 13/8F

08 Nov 17 Nottingham Jabbarockie (GB)T: Eric Alston B&M Installations HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 6/1

01 Nov 17 Nottingham Lydiate Lady (GB)T: Eric Alston Watch Racing UK On Virgin 536 HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 4/1

31 Oct 17 Catterick Redrosezorro (GB)T: Eric Alston Jump Season Next HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 1st 9/2J

20 Oct 17 Newcastle (AW) Etaad (USA)T: Lucinda Egerton Capital North East Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 80/1

20 Oct 17 Redcar Stanarley Pic (GB)T: Sally Haynes Sam Hall Memorial HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 15/2

18 Oct 17 Nottingham Jabbarockie (GB)T: Eric Alston Kier Construction Central Nottingham HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 1st 5/1

18 Oct 17 Nottingham Invincible Ridge (IRE)T: Eric Alston Kier Central Supporting Casy HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 7th 20/1

12 Oct 17 Ayr Niqnaaqpaadiwaaq (GB)T: Eric Alston Tennent's Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Heavy · 14 ran 8th 10/1

10 Oct 17 Newcastle (AW) Disturb (GB)T: Andrew Crook Leathers The Accountants Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 100/1

07 Oct 17 Redcar Lydiate Lady (GB)T: Eric Alston Watch Race Replays At racinguk.com HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 1st 9/1

07 Oct 17 Redcar Red Seeker (GB)T: Andrew Crook Jack's Coaches EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 100/1

04 Oct 17 Nottingham Maid In India (IRE)T: Eric Alston Costa Bingo - Your Funshine Destination Handicap (Jockey Club Series Grassroots Sprint Distance Series Final)Class 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 5/1

01 Oct 17 Musselburgh Stanarley Pic (GB)T: Sally Haynes Robert Purvis Plant Hire HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 15/2

30 Sep 17 Ripon Bossipop (GB)T: Tim Easterby Ripon Cathedral City Of The Dales HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 14 ran 8th 22/1

27 Sep 17 Redcar Barkston Ash (GB)T: Eric Alston Watch Race Replays At racinguk.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 12th 28/1

27 Sep 17 Redcar Jabbarockie (GB)T: Eric Alston Watch Racing UK In HD HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 6th 18/1

27 Sep 17 Redcar Sir Walter (IRE)T: Eric Alston All New racinguk.com NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 20th 50/1

23 Sep 17 Catterick Redrosezorro (GB)T: Eric Alston We Will Miss You Brian Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 14/1

19 Sep 17 Redcar Stanarley Pic (GB)T: Sally Haynes Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Soft · 12 ran 2nd 4/1J

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Neil Farley's strike rate?: Neil Farley has won 127 of 1,695 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Neil Farley do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 107 rides (11.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Neil Farley ride most for?: Declan Carroll, with 585 rides since 2008 — 35% of the total. That pairing has won 50 (8.5%).
What is Neil Farley's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 1,680 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.