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Trainer profile

Patrick Holmes

1,027 runners in the lifetime window · 71 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Mar 2018
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
47–1,027
Wins / Runs
4.6%
Strike rate
n=1,027
181 (18%)
Placed
0.74
Fair A/E
n=1,021 · 0.64 incl. margin
−507.46
£1 level stake
n=1,027 at SP · −49.4%
£313k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 110 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.74). New recruits from other yards win at 6% first time out (49 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,027 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Mar Jack Garritty: 4.3% from 140 New recruits: 6.1% Claiming riders: 5.4%
The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (10.5%, n=76), clear of the yard's 4.6% baseline. It is weakest at Redcar (0% over 49 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.62 and −93.00 to a £1 stake over 175 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Jack Garritty rode 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.3%, A/E 0.63). The yard also read well in Chase races (9.5%, n=95) and over 2m5f – 3m (10%, n=40). The stable star of the record was Lil Sophella (IRE) — 6 wins from 62 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−1.7
n=175 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −93.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.1%+1.5
n=49 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.6
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.6
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.4%−0.2
n=68 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −22.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=18 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −7.37
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.4%+0.8
n=499 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −196.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.6
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Daniel Tudhope 14.5% vs 4.6% · n=69
At Hamilton 10.5% vs 4.6% · n=76
With C&D winners 10.2% vs 4.6% · n=88
In Chase races 9.5% vs 4.6% · n=95
Over 2m5f – 3m 10% vs 4.6% · n=40
At Redcar 0% vs 4.6% · n=49
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 777 35 4.5% −399.46
Hurdle 140 2 1.4% −122.00
Chase 95 9 9.5% +16.00
NH Flat 15 1 6.7% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 330 12 3.6% −197.00
Standard (AW) 182 7 3.8% −86.67
Good to Firm 180 7 3.9% −110.25
Good to Soft 179 13 7.3% −40.42
Soft 143 6 4.2% −78.12
Heavy 13 2 15.4% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Catterick 107 8 7.5% −26.50
Musselburgh 98 3 3.1% −71.75
Hamilton 76 8 10.5% −2.50
Wolverhampton (AW) 65 3 4.6% −23.67
Newcastle (AW) 60 1 1.7% −55.00
Carlisle 57 5 8.8% +42.00
Beverley 55 1 1.8% −51.25
Redcar 49 0 0% −49.00
Newcastle 48 0 0% −48.00
Ayr 37 2 5.4% −24.67
Thirsk 36 1 2.8% −19.00
Wetherby 36 1 2.8% −23.00
Doncaster 35 0 0% −35.00
Kempton (AW) 32 2 6.3% +11.00
Ripon 29 0 0% −29.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 395 20 5.1% −198.84
Class 5 360 16 4.4% −162.87
Class 4 214 8 3.7% −145.75
Class 3 37 3 8.1% +21.00
Class 7 13 0 0% −13.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 5 16.1% 0.79 −10.37
2nd–3rd fav 112 13 11.6% 0.78 −37.09
4th–6th fav 307 18 5.9% 0.80 −110.00
7th+ in betting 577 11 1.9% 0.62 −350.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Lil Sophella (IRE) 62 6 23 28 Oct 17
Imperator Augustus (IRE)from A P O'Brien 51 6 11 1 Oct 15
Voice From Above (IRE) 50 3 9 3 Jan 17
Foot The Bill (GB) 49 4 19 26 Feb 17
Fillydelphia (IRE)then Lawrence Mullaney 41 2 8 13 Mar 18
Yourholidayisover (IRE)from David Harry Kelly · then Tom Gretton 37 1 8 9 Apr 16
Swiss Lait (GB)from David Elsworth 31 1 3 3 Oct 17
Cookie Ring (IRE)from C Roche · then Kristin Stubbs 31 3 7 31 Aug 17
Patron of Explores (USA) 31 1 2 16 Feb 17
Framley Garth (IRE)from David Elsworth · then Lawrence Mullaney 30 2 5 5 Aug 17
Munjally (GB)from Richard Hannon 29 1 7 17 Sep 16
Bogardus (IRE)from P J Prendergast · then Lawrence Mullaney 28 2 8 3 Feb 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 71 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 42 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from George Moore (4) and A P O'Brien (3); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

25 have since run for another yard, most often for Lawrence Mullaney (14) and Kristin Stubbs (2); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
288058566006
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJack Garritty
14% of all rides
4.3% SR · A/E 0.63
RiderRWSR£1
Jack Garritty 140 6 4.3% −76.00
Paula Muir 119 5 4.2% −50.00
John Kington 94 4 4.3% −51.50
Neil Farley 70 5 7.1% −32.17
Daniel Tudhope 69 10 14.5% −0.79
Duran Fentiman 48 0 0% −48.00
Joey Haynes 38 2 5.3% −20.00
Tom Siddall 37 1 2.7% −25.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→
47
Archived wins
£313k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 13 wins
Lil Sophella (IRE) — EBF Stallions Scottish Premier Fillies' Handicap Musselburgh · Sep 2015 · Class 3
£15,563
Lil Sophella (IRE) — EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Frank Whittle Partnership Fillies' Handicap York · May 2016 · Class 3
£12,938
Foot The Bill (GB) — Happy Birthday John Tate Handicap Chase Catterick · Dec 2014 · Class 4
£7,935
Notable horses
Lil Sophella (IRE) Imperator Augustus (IRE) Foot The Bill (GB) Voice From Above (IRE) Cookie Ring (IRE) Fillydelphia (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Strategic Prince (GB) 5% · 5–101
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,496 runs since 2008 (144 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 141.
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 10.4% · 7–67
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,867 runs since 2008 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Indian Haven (GB) 9.7% · 6–62
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,799 runs since 2008 (153 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.1% from 157.
Generous (IRE) 8.2% · 4–49
Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Sulamani (IRE) 2.7% · 1–37
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Acclamation (GB) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 10% of 19,685 runs since 2008 (1,326 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,027 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,027 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 April 2010 to 27 March 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
27 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Musico (IRE)J: Russell Harris Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1
27 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Captain Peaky (GB)J: Ben Robinson Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 12/1
16 Mar 18 Musselburgh Life Knowledge (IRE)J: John Kington 188Bet Extra Places At Cheltenham Friday Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 16/1
13 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Fillydelphia (IRE)J: Rachel Richardson Bet On The Festival With Betway HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 80/1
13 Mar 18 Sedgefield Jaxlight (GB)J: Finian O'Toole 188Bet Casino Mares' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 17f · Heavy · 4 ran 1st 12/1
09 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Reflation (GB)J: Joey Haynes Betway Cheltenham First & Last Race Losers Moneyback HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1
09 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Optima Petamus (GB)J: Paula Muir Sunbets On The App Store Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 4/1
09 Mar 18 Newcastle (AW) Captain Peaky (GB)J: Joey Haynes Sunbets On The App Store Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 20/1
07 Mar 18 Kempton (AW) Life Knowledge (IRE)J: Paula Muir 32Red On The App Store Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 9/2
05 Mar 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Optima Petamus (GB)J: Paula Muir Betway Casino Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 8/1
21 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Captain Peaky (GB)J: Russell Harris Racing Uk All Weather 'hands And Heels' Series Apprentice HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 20/1
08 Feb 18 Doncaster Asylo (IRE)J: Wayne Hutchinson Plumbase Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 150/1
08 Feb 18 Newcastle (AW) Captain Peaky (GB)J: Jane Elliott Betway Apprentice Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 11/1
08 Feb 18 Newcastle (AW) Musico (IRE)J: Russell Harris Betway Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 25/1
08 Feb 18 Newcastle (AW) Optima Petamus (GB)J: Paula Muir Betway Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 9/2
08 Feb 18 Newcastle (AW) Fillydelphia (IRE)J: Rachel Richardson Betway Live Casino HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 40/1
03 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Bogardus (IRE)J: Joey Haynes 100% Profit Boost At 32redsport.com HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 3/1
03 Feb 18 Musselburgh Anguino (FR)J: John Kington Bet365.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 13 ran 10th 80/1
02 Feb 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Optima Petamus (GB)J: Paula Muir Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 9/2
01 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) Buyer Beware (IRE)J: Dougie Costello Smarter Bets With Matchbook HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Holmes's strike rate?
Patrick Holmes has won 47 of 1,027 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.6% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Holmes do best at?
Hamilton by strike rate: 8 wins from 76 runners (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick Holmes?
Jack Garritty, with 140 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4.3%).
What is Patrick Holmes's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 1,021 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).