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Jockey profile

S M McGuinness

53 rides in the lifetime window · 30 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Jun 2010 98% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
2–53
Wins / Runs
3.8%
Strike rate
n=53
5 (9%)
Placed
0.79
Fair A/E
n=53 · 0.57 incl. margin
−30.50
£1 level stake
n=53 at SP · −57.5%
£16,948
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming: 4%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−3.8
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−3.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−3.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
4%+0.2
n=50 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −27.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.5%+0.7
n=44 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −21.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
When claiming 4% vs 3.8% · n=50 · A/E 0.84
In Flat races 3.8% vs 3.8% · n=52 · A/E 0.80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 52 2 3.8% −29.50
Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Soft 10 2 20% +12.50
Good 9 0 0% −9.00
Standard (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Good to Firm 7 0 0% −7.00
Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Naas 10 1 10% +7.00
Dundalk (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Leopardstown 7 0 0% −7.00
Curragh 6 0 0% −6.00
Navan 4 0 0% −4.00
Tipperary 3 0 0% −3.00
Limerick 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 2 0 0% −2.00
Sligo 2 0 0% −2.00
Galway 1 0 0% −1.00
Gowran Park 1 0 0% −1.00
Down Royal 1 1 100% +4.50
Downpatrick 1 0 0% −1.00
Ballinrobe 1 0 0% −1.00
Wexford 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 4 1 25% 2.36 +1.50
4th–6th fav 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
7th+ in betting 40 1 2.5% 0.68 −23.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kilmannin (IRE) 11 1 3 6 Aug 09
Ah Joe (GB) 4 0 0 8 May 10
Solo Performer (IRE) 4 1 1 3 Apr 10
Lily's Star (IRE) 3 0 0 16 Jun 10
Polly Ella (IRE) 2 0 1 12 Jun 10
Cave Artist (IRE) 2 0 0 16 May 10
Kinyara (IRE) 2 0 0 2 May 10
Tin Town Boy (IRE) 2 0 0 13 Nov 09
Fit The Cove (IRE) 2 0 0 26 Oct 09
Samba Mirander (GB) 1 0 0 18 Jun 10
Silly Dancer (IRE) 1 0 0 7 Jun 10
Bold Apache (IRE) 1 0 0 30 May 10
All 30 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
···0000172500·
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardH Rogers
72% of all rides
5.3% SR · A/E 1.09
TrainerRWSR£1
H Rogers 38 2 5.3% −15.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
3
Archived wins
£27,447
Prize money
2009
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kilmannin (IRE) — Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Series Handicap (50-80) Naas · Aug 2008
£9,329
Kilmannin (IRE) — Stephen Quirke Memorial Apprentice Handicap (60-80) Curragh · Oct 2007
£8,638
Solo Performer (IRE) — Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-65) Down Royal · Sep 2009
£5,528
Notable horses
Kilmannin (IRE) Solo Performer (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
College Chapel (GB) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 5.3% of 169 runs since 2008 (14 horses).
Chineur (FR) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9% of 2,167 runs since 2009 (138 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12% from 209. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.2% from 403. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6% from 199.
Distant Music (USA) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 8.1% of 1,086 runs since 2008 (79 horses).
Needwood Blade (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 7.9% of 2,746 runs since 2008 (187 horses).
Balla Cove (GB) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 5.8% of 137 runs since 2008 (13 horses).
Danehill Dancer (IRE) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 70 · newest first

The latest 50 of 70 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 May 2007 to 18 June 2010.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Jun 10 Limerick Samba Mirander (GB)T: Denis Quinn Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-60)11.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 12/1
16 Jun 10 Fairyhouse Lily's Star (IRE)T: H Rogers Paddy Barry Graduation Maiden6f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 16/1
14 Jun 10 Roscommon Lily's Star (IRE)T: H Rogers Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Fillies Maiden7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 12/1
12 Jun 10 Limerick Polly Ella (IRE)T: H Rogers Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-60)8f · Good · 16 ran 3rd 14/1
12 Jun 10 Limerick Lily's Star (IRE)T: H Rogers loughwood.net Creosote Fencing Maiden7f · Good · 8 ran 6th 50/1
07 Jun 10 Naas Silly Dancer (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (50-70)8f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 6th 16/1
30 May 10 Leopardstown Bold Apache (IRE)T: J H Scott Y.i.t.b.a. Racing Club Apprentice Handicap (50-70)8f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 8th 25/1
16 May 10 Navan Cave Artist (IRE)T: H Rogers Come Racing On June 11th Handicap (47-70)10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 16/1
13 May 10 Gowran Park Crafty George (IRE)T: J P Fogarty Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-60)9.5f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 5th 7/1J
12 May 10 Naas Celtic Life (IRE)T: W McCreery Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-60)7f · Good · 15 ran 8th 12/1
08 May 10 Dundalk (AW) Ah Joe (GB)T: H Rogers Dundalk Stadium On Facebook Apprentice Handicap (47-60)5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 10/1
03 May 10 Curragh Cave Artist (IRE)T: H Rogers Keadeen Hotel Maiden7f · Yielding · 30 ran 10th 50/1
02 May 10 Sligo Kinyara (IRE)T: H Rogers 'Join The 2010 Sligo Race Supporters Club' Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 50/1
17 Apr 10 Naas Polly Ella (IRE)T: H Rogers Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (47-60)8f · Good · 17 ran 7th 9/1
09 Apr 10 Dundalk (AW) Ah Joe (GB)T: H Rogers www.dundalkstadium.com Apprentice Handicap (47-60)8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 8/1
03 Apr 10 Dundalk (AW) Solo Performer (IRE)T: H Rogers Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (50-75) Div 212f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 16/1
26 Nov 09 Dundalk (AW) Ah Joe (GB)T: H Rogers www.dundalkstadium.com Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)7f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 10/1
20 Nov 09 Dundalk (AW) Ah Joe (GB)T: H Rogers Crowne Plaza Race And Stay Package Handicap (47-65)8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 20/1
13 Nov 09 Dundalk (AW) Tin Town Boy (IRE)T: H Rogers Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Race12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 14/1
26 Oct 09 Leopardstown Fit The Cove (IRE)T: H Rogers Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap Final9f · Yielding · 13 ran 10th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is S M McGuinness's strike rate?
S M McGuinness has won 2 of 53 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is S M McGuinness's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 53 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).