Skip to content
Trainer profile

J P Fogarty

251 runners in the lifetime window · 25 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jul 2013
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
12–251
Wins / Runs
4.8%
Strike rate
n=251
52 (21%)
Placed
0.83
Fair A/E
n=251 · 0.63 incl. margin
−121.92
£1 level stake
n=251 at SP · −48.6%
£157k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.83).

Deterministic profile computed from 251 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5.8%
The read

The yard also read well over 1m5f – 2m (8.5%, n=59) and off a 0-7-day break (7.9%, n=38). The record read poorly on Good going — 0% over 39 runners, 4.8pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.3%−1.5
n=30 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
16.7%+11.9
n=12 · A/E 4.13 · £1 +16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+28.5
n=6 · A/E 3.85 · £1 +13.33
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.8%+1.0
n=137 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −32.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Mr R P Quinlan 13.3% vs 4.8% · n=30
On Good going 0% vs 4.8% · n=39
With horses switching code 0% vs 4.8% · n=38
Over 1m5f – 2m 8.5% vs 4.8% · n=59
With Tom Doyle 8.2% vs 4.8% · n=49
Off a 0-7-day break 7.9% vs 4.8% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 85 4 4.7% −58.17
Hurdle 83 3 3.6% −55.75
Flat 65 4 6.2% −11.00
NH Flat 18 1 5.6% +3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 75 5 6.7% −15.50
Heavy 68 4 5.9% −35.42
Good 39 0 0% −39.00
Good to Firm 33 1 3% −22.00
Good to Soft 16 0 0% −16.00
Standard (AW) 14 1 7.1% −1.00
Firm 6 1 16.7% +7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Tipperary 22 2 9.1% +8.00
Punchestown 19 2 10.5% −9.17
Cork 18 0 0% −18.00
Clonmel 16 0 0% −16.00
Wexford 13 0 0% −13.00
Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Dundalk (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00
Ballinrobe 12 1 8.3% −1.00
Navan 12 0 0% −12.00
Kilbeggan 11 0 0% −11.00
Thurles 11 2 18.2% +20.00
Galway 10 0 0% −10.00
Naas 10 0 0% −10.00
Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
2nd–3rd fav 31 3 9.7% 0.85 −17.92
4th–6th fav 63 5 7.9% 1.12 −13.00
7th+ in betting 149 4 2.7% 0.76 −83.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.5% completed · 168 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 85 87.1% 3 0 7 1 0
Hurdle 83 88% 0 2 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Arkendale (IRE)from Mrs Aileen Ann O'Connor · then Miss K L Mellor 53 3 17 11 Oct 12
Kateeva (IRE) 37 4 10 12 Jul 13
Gentleman Jim (IRE)from Robert Tyner 30 3 8 31 May 11
Surf's Up (IRE)from P J Prendergast · then Aidan F Fogarty 24 0 1 22 Jul 13
Andrea's Answer (IRE) 24 0 6 22 Feb 12
Moncherie (IRE)from M Halford · then Aidan F Fogarty 15 1 3 21 Jul 13
Like The Da (IRE)from David Martin Kelly · then Aidan F Fogarty 13 0 1 26 Jul 13
La Femme Blanche (IRE)then Aidan F Fogarty 9 0 1 12 Jul 13
Lucky Pigeon (IRE)then Aidan F Fogarty 9 0 2 24 Aug 12
Commanche Conflict (IRE) 6 0 0 24 Jul 12
Black Benny (IRE)then J P Broderick 6 1 3 5 May 11
Gallery Queen (IRE) 5 0 0 30 Sep 08
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Aidan F Fogarty (7); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
61006383010707
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom Doyle
20% of all rides
8.2% SR · A/E 1.17
RiderRWSR£1
Tom Doyle 49 4 8.2% −24.42
Mr R P Quinlan 30 4 13.3% +20.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
12
Archived wins
£162k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Gentleman Jim (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F Novice Hurdle Sligo · Jul 2009
£13,346
Kateeva (IRE) — Brandon Hotel Handicap (50-80) Listowel · Sep 2011
£8,280
Arkendale (IRE) — Punchestown Annual Membership Handicap Chase (0-109) Punchestown · Oct 2009
£7,256
Notable horses
Kateeva (IRE) Arkendale (IRE) Gentleman Jim (IRE) Moncherie (IRE) Black Benny (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Portrait Gallery (IRE) 3.6% · 3–83
Progeny have won 11% of 1,448 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 223.
Statue Of Liberty (USA) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (210 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.6% from 119.
Supreme Leader (GB) 10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).
Close Conflict (USA) 3.6% · 1–28
Progeny have won 7.8% of 565 runs since 2008 (73 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 106.
Encosta de Lago (AUS) 0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 10.9% of 367 runs since 2008 (32 horses).
Winged Love (IRE) 0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,965 runs since 2008 (296 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 323 · newest first

The latest 50 of 323 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 March 2005 to 26 July 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
26 Jul 13 Wexford Like The Da (IRE)J: Kevin Sexton St. Patrick's Rock Handicap Chase (0-102)19f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 7/1
24 Jul 13 Naas Divine Princess (IRE)J: Shane Gray Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Maiden5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 50/1
22 Jul 13 Ballinrobe Surf's Up (IRE)J: Shane Gray Bet 10 Get 10 At Thetote.com Apprentice Handicap (47-65)14f · Good · 16 ran 16th 16/1
21 Jul 13 Tipperary Moncherie (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Bet Online At Thetote.com Galway Plate Trial Handicap Chase20f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 5th 7/1
17 Jul 13 Killarney Like The Da (IRE)J: Mark Enright Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (0-102) (Div 1)20.5f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th 16/1
14 Jul 13 Fairyhouse Divine Princess (IRE)J: Shane Gray Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Median Auction Maiden6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 50/1
12 Jul 13 Cork La Femme Blanche (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Corkracecourse.ie Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 9th 14/1
12 Jul 13 Dundalk (AW) Kateeva (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Marshes Shopping Centre Best Dressed Lady Handicap5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 14/1
06 Jul 13 Bellewstown Cabarete (IRE)J: W J Lee Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Median Auction Maiden8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 33/1
24 Jun 13 Kilbeggan Moncherie (IRE)J: Dave Crosse Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Handicap Chase (0-116)20f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 7th 16/1
14 Jun 13 Navan Kateeva (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Follow Navan On Facebook Handicap6f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 7th 25/1
11 Jun 13 Roscommon Surf's Up (IRE)J: Shane Gray www.roscommonracecourse.ie Handicap (47-65)12f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 4th 11/1
01 Jun 13 Tramore Surf's Up (IRE)J: M A Cleere Annestown Handicap (47-65)14f · Firm · 13 ran 5th 20/1
31 May 13 Down Royal Moncherie (IRE)J: Dave Crosse Barclay It Services Handicap Hurdle (80-116)20f · Good · 19 ran 11th 16/1
23 May 13 Clonmel La Femme Blanche (IRE)J: Robbie Moran Team Tipperary Gaa Race Evening June 14th Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 8th 20/1
18 May 13 Wexford Surf's Up (IRE)J: M A Cleere Felim O'Rourke Is Finally Getting Married Handicap (47-65)14f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 5th 20/1
16 May 13 Tipperary La Femme Blanche (IRE)J: Robbie Moran Healy Partners Architects Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 20 ran 7th 33/1
11 May 13 Punchestown La Femme Blanche (IRE)J: Robbie Moran Dobbins Food Hall Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 25 ran 19th 50/1
07 May 13 Navan Kateeva (IRE)J: Mark Enright Navan Chairman Handicap (47-70)6f · Yielding · 18 ran 13th 14/1
03 May 13 Kilbeggan Moncherie (IRE)J: Robbie Moran Moate Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J P Fogarty's strike rate?
J P Fogarty has won 12 of 251 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J P Fogarty's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 251 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).