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Trainer profile

M Phelan

290 runners in the lifetime window · 41 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2018
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
19–290
Wins / Runs
6.6%
Strike rate
n=290
50 (17%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=290 · 0.79 incl. margin
−145.42
£1 level stake
n=290 at SP · −50.1%
£272k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 290 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
The read

The record is strongest at Punchestown (13.3%, n=30), clear of the yard's 6.6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). The record read poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 33 runners, 6.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.53 across 58 runners (3.4% strike, −45.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Magners Ulster Derby at Down Royal (Jun 2012, £37,500). The stable star of the record was Aldhaher Beebers (IRE) — 7 wins from 31 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−3.2
n=59 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −44.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.6
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.6
n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.8%+5.2
n=17 · A/E 2.36 · £1 +0.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
35.7%
n=14 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +2.58
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%−1.3
n=132 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −68.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+4.5
n=9 · A/E 2.26 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Emmet Mullins 0% vs 6.6% · n=34
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 6.6% · n=33
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.6% · n=32
At Punchestown 13.3% vs 6.6% · n=30
With debutants 0% vs 6.6% · n=30
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 3.4% vs 6.6% · n=58
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 110 7 6.4% −48.17
Flat 101 7 6.9% −54.00
Chase 40 3 7.5% −21.25
NH Flat 39 2 5.1% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 82 5 6.1% −50.25
Good 74 6 8.1% −20.25
Heavy 38 2 5.3% −22.00
Good to Firm 33 1 3% −27.50
Good to Soft 33 0 0% −33.00
Standard (AW) 25 3 12% −0.75
Firm 5 2 40% +8.33

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 30 4 13.3% −6.00
Dundalk (AW) 25 3 12% −0.75
Leopardstown 20 0 0% −20.00
Roscommon 17 2 11.8% +19.00
Gowran Park 14 0 0% −14.00
Kilbeggan 13 1 7.7% −4.00
Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00
Thurles 11 0 0% −11.00
Navan 11 0 0% −11.00
Clonmel 11 0 0% −11.00
Fairyhouse 11 1 9.1% −3.00
Cork 10 0 0% −10.00
Tramore 10 2 20% +1.25
Ballinrobe 10 2 20% −1.00
Wexford 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 10 1 10% −2.00
Class 2 3 1 33.3% +0.75
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 5 35.7% 1.46 +2.58
2nd–3rd fav 43 6 14% 1.08 −5.00
4th–6th fav 68 7 10.3% 1.39 −4.00
7th+ in betting 165 1 0.6% 0.22 −139.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Alghanem (IRE) 39 1 5 20 Jul 14
Alhellal (IRE)then Nigel Thomas Slevin 27 5 10 18 Apr 15
Portrait King (IRE)then Patrick Griffin 25 3 11 2 May 15
Batchelors Walk (IRE) 24 1 6 30 Aug 18
Ain Jalout (IRE) 20 1 2 11 Jun 11
Petuna (IRE) 17 4 10 31 Aug 17
Aldhaher Beebers (IRE) 17 3 3 20 Jun 11
Heather Moth (IRE) 11 0 1 8 May 18
Khayber One (IRE) 11 0 0 13 Dec 09
Forth Official (IRE) 8 0 0 2 May 11
Shuil Teacht Aniar (IRE) 7 0 0 9 Apr 17
Hallo Rosie (IRE)from P D Deegan 7 0 0 21 Jul 16
All 41 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 41 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs John Harrington (3); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Emmet Mullins (2) and Patrick Griffin (2); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
914068160100405
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderEmmet Mullins
12% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Emmet Mullins 34 0 0% −34.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
23
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£318k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 6 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Alhellal (IRE) — Magners Ulster Derby (Premier Handicap) Down Royal · Jun 2012
£37,500
Portrait King (IRE) — Betfred Eider (Handicap Chase) Newcastle · Feb 2012 · Class 2
£21,790
Portrait King (IRE) — Dobbins & Madigans At Punchestown Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (grade C) Punchestown · Feb 2012 · Grade C
£17,875
Notable horses
Aldhaher Beebers (IRE) Alhellal (IRE) Petuna (IRE) Portrait King (IRE) Alghanem (IRE) Batchelors Walk (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
City Honours (USA) 6% · 3–50
Progeny have won 8% of 1,050 runs since 2008 (125 horses).
Soviet Star (USA) 2.6% · 1–39
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,621 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 160. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 320.
Kalanisi (IRE) 18.5% · 5–27
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Portrait Gallery (IRE) 12% · 3–25
Progeny have won 11% of 1,448 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 223.
Yeats (IRE) 4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,804 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Catcher In The Rye (IRE) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 8.9% of 2,570 runs since 2008 (239 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 315 · newest first

The latest 50 of 315 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 April 2006 to 16 December 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Dec 18 Navan The Dabbler (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan John Lynch Carpets Maiden Hurdle23f · Yielding · 9 ran 5th 20/1
28 Nov 18 Punchestown The Dabbler (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 11 ran 6th 50/1
30 Aug 18 Bellewstown Batchelors Walk (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (81-123)24f · Good · 12 ran 8th 8/1
18 Aug 18 Tramore Batchelors Walk (IRE)J: Shane Foley Morris Builders DIY Handicap (45-65)16f · Good · 12 ran 4th 8/1
10 Aug 18 Tipperary Balletto (IRE)J: Conor Hoban www.tipperaryraces.ie Fillies Maiden9f · Good · 12 ran 10th 100/1
07 Aug 18 Roscommon Batchelors Walk (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Class Grass Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24.5f · Good · 17 ran 1st 25/1
28 Jul 18 Gowran Park Balletto (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden9.5f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 12th 66/1
26 Jul 18 Limerick Batchelors Walk (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Irish Stallion Farms EBF Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 33/1
15 Jul 18 Killarney Balletto (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Dermot O'leary Flesk Restaurant Memorial Fillies Maiden11f · Good · 11 ran 9th 40/1
16 May 18 Punchestown Castiel (FR)J: Roger Loughran Kildare Hunt Club Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 25 ran 18th 66/1
10 May 18 Tipperary The Dabbler (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery P2p.ie The Irish Point To Point Website (c & G) Point-to-point Flat Race18f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 33/1
08 May 18 Roscommon Heather Moth (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Follow Us On Facebook Mares Beginners Chase21f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran PU 40/1
20 Apr 18 Limerick Heather Moth (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Patrickswell Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran PU 16/1
20 Apr 18 Limerick Castiel (FR)J: Roger Loughran Follow Limerick On Twitter Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 9th 33/1
02 Apr 18 Cork The Dabbler (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery Pegus Horse Feed Point-To-Point Flat Race19f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 7/2
19 Mar 18 Limerick Heather Moth (IRE)J: David Mullins 59 Hospitality Packages At Limerick Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (80-95)24.5f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 8/1
11 Feb 18 Punchestown Heather Moth (IRE)J: David Mullins Entire Cheltenham Festival On Racing UK Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24f · Heavy · 12 ran 8th 5/1
30 Jan 18 Punchestown Heather Moth (IRE)J: David Mullins Toals.com Bookmakers Football Acca Insurance Handicap Hurdle (80-102)22f · Heavy · 13 ran 3rd 33/1
01 Jan 18 Fairyhouse Heather Moth (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Join Fairyhouse Members Club Handicap Hurdle (80-109)23.5f · Heavy · 14 ran PU 50/1
09 Dec 17 Navan Heather Moth (IRE)J: Roger Loughran Dunmoe Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft · 25 ran 17th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is M Phelan's strike rate?
M Phelan has won 19 of 290 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does M Phelan do best at?
Punchestown by strike rate: 4 wins from 30 runners (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is M Phelan's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 290 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).