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Trainer profile

Mrs Valerie Keatley

106 runners in the lifetime window · 20 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Aug 2012
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
3–106
Wins / Runs
2.8%
Strike rate
n=106
22 (21%)
Placed
0.36
Fair A/E
n=105 · 0.39 incl. margin
−87.38
£1 level stake
n=106 at SP · −82.4%
£37,660
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.36).

Deterministic profile computed from 106 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 3.8%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.8
n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −35.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.8
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 3.38 · £1 +4.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.8%+1.0
n=52 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −36.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m – 1m1f 9.7% vs 2.8% · n=31
On Standard (AW) going 7% vs 2.8% · n=43
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 2.8% · n=52
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 2.8% · n=37
At Dundalk (AW) 5.4% vs 2.8% · n=37
With claiming riders up 3.8% vs 2.8% · n=52 · A/E 0.74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 86 3 3.5% −67.38
Hurdle 12 0 0% −12.00
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00
Chase 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 43 3 7% −24.38
Soft 17 0 0% −17.00
Good 15 0 0% −15.00
Good to Firm 12 0 0% −12.00
Good to Soft 11 0 0% −11.00
Heavy 7 0 0% −7.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 37 2 5.4% −21.50
Roscommon 8 0 0% −8.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 6 1 16.7% −2.88
Down Royal 6 0 0% −6.00
Leopardstown 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Kilbeggan 3 0 0% −3.00
Tipperary 3 0 0% −3.00
Sligo 3 0 0% −3.00
Punchestown 3 0 0% −3.00
Naas 3 0 0% −3.00
Killarney 3 0 0% −3.00
Curragh 3 0 0% −3.00
Ballinrobe 3 0 0% −3.00
Cork 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 6 1 16.7% −2.88

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 1.61 +2.50
2nd–3rd fav 11 1 9.1% 0.00 −7.88
4th–6th fav 28 1 3.6% 0.53 −19.00
7th+ in betting 63 0 0% 0.00 −63.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Rambling Dancer (IRE) 26 3 9 20 Jan 12
Leap The Liffey (IRE)from J C Hayden · then C Byrnes 11 0 3 18 Nov 09
Ennis Express (FR) 9 0 1 24 Aug 10
Mad Existence (IRE)from H Rogers 9 0 5 9 Aug 10
Green Utopia (IRE) 8 0 1 4 Dec 10
Dictation (GB)from D K Weld 6 0 0 23 Jan 09
Mr Smokey (IRE) 5 0 0 29 Apr 10
Curraline (IRE)then Mrs Y Dunleavy 4 0 0 11 Apr 12
Ibiza Diamond (IRE) 4 0 0 13 Jun 11
A Chuisle Mo Chroi (IRE) 4 0 0 27 Sep 08
Elanisa (IRE)from J P McElroy 3 0 3 5 Sep 11
Goliah (IRE) 3 0 0 6 Aug 11
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 20 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000000000822
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Shane Gorey 27 2 7.4% −11.50
W J Lee 14 1 7.1% −10.88
Michael Hussey 10 0 0% −10.00
Ian McCarthy 5 0 0% −5.00
Niki O'Shea 5 0 0% −5.00
Pat Smullen 5 0 0% −5.00
Keagan Latham 4 0 0% −4.00
Leigh Roche 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny Grant 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr J J King 2 0 0% −2.00
Robbie McNamara 2 0 0% −2.00
P B Beggy 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
4
Archived wins
£47,976
Prize money
2010
Best season · 1 win
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Couture Daisy (IRE) — Mccabes Garage Drogheda Mares Maiden Hurdle Bellewstown · Aug 2005
£6,219
Rambling Dancer (IRE) — Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Rated Race Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2010
£5,865
Rambling Dancer (IRE) — Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Handicap (47-65) Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2009
£4,837
Notable horses
Rambling Dancer (IRE) Couture Daisy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Imperial Ballet (IRE) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,342 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.2% from 245. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 150.
Carrowkeel (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 6.3% of 158 runs since 2008 (23 horses).
Green Tune (USA) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10% of 1,943 runs since 2008 (227 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 265. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 457. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.1% from 244.
Val Royal (FR) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.8% of 2,015 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 140.
Alhaarth (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,750 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 196 · newest first

The latest 50 of 196 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 31 August 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Aug 12 Down Royal Summersinerrill (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Mccormack Potato Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 15th 20/1
11 Aug 12 Kilbeggan Josephine's Dream (IRE)J: Mr J J King Tyrrellspass Flat Race16f · Good · 15 ran 11th 16/1
26 Jul 12 Limerick Summersinerrill (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Follow Limerick Racecourse On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Good · 13 ran 9th 25/1
13 Jul 12 Downpatrick Josephine's Dream (IRE)J: Mr J J King Have You Met Ruby Mares Flat Race18f · Good · 15 ran 5th 25/1
11 Apr 12 Dundalk (AW) Curraline (IRE)J: Michael Hussey Dundalk Stadium On Facebook Handicap (47-65)12f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 25/1
20 Jan 12 Dundalk (AW) Rambling Dancer (IRE)J: Shane Gorey Irish Stablestaff Association Awards March 3rd 2012 Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 18/1
16 Dec 11 Dundalk (AW) Rambling Dancer (IRE)J: Shane Gorey Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Rated Race8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 20/1
11 Nov 11 Dundalk (AW) Rambling Dancer (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Apprentice Handicap (55-75)8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 10/1
28 Oct 11 Dundalk (AW) Rambling Dancer (IRE)J: Shane Gorey Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Handicap (60-80)8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 16/1
26 Sep 11 Roscommon Virtuosa (IRE)J: Michael Hussey www.roscommonracecourse.ie Fillies Maiden12f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 100/1
05 Sep 11 Roscommon Elanisa (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Four Roads Mares (Pro/Am) Maiden Hurdle20f · Heavy · 15 ran 3rd 9/1
05 Sep 11 Roscommon Curraline (IRE)J: Michael Hussey Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Fillies Maiden12f · Heavy · 13 ran 6th 66/1
26 Aug 11 Down Royal Elanisa (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Gordons Gin Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 7/1
23 Aug 11 Killarney Curraline (IRE)J: Michael Hussey Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Fillies Maiden11f · Good · 14 ran 10th 66/1
13 Aug 11 Tramore Curraline (IRE)J: Michael Hussey Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Fillies Maiden12f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 33/1
06 Aug 11 Kilbeggan Goliah (IRE)J: Robbie McNamara Tom Birmingham Menswear Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 6 ran 6th 20/1
02 Aug 11 Roscommon Elanisa (IRE)J: Ian McCarthy Dysart Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Good · 17 ran 3rd 50/1
22 Jul 11 Wexford Lady La Dee Da (IRE)J: Shane Gorey Belmont Handicap (47-60)8.5f · Good · 13 ran 13th 25/1
10 Jul 11 Fairyhouse Lady La Dee Da (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Children Under 16 Are Free Handicap (47-65)10f · Good · 18 ran 18th 33/1
13 Jun 11 Roscommon Ibiza Diamond (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mrs Valerie Keatley's strike rate?
Mrs Valerie Keatley has won 3 of 106 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mrs Valerie Keatley do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 37 runners (5.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Mrs Valerie Keatley's Fair A/E?
0.36, from 105 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).