What is Wayne Kavanagh's strike rate?

Wayne Kavanagh has won 27 of 851 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Wayne Kavanagh do best at?

Warwick by strike rate: 4 wins from 32 rides (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Wayne Kavanagh ride most for?

Seamus Mullins, with 330 rides since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (2.7%).

What is Wayne Kavanagh's Fair A/E?

0.57, from 850 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Wayne Kavanagh

851 rides in the lifetime window · 328 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2015 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

27–851

Wins / Runs

3.2%

Strike rate

n=851

138 (16%)

Placed

0.57

Fair A/E

n=850 · 0.49 incl. margin

−458.67

£1 level stake

n=851 at SP · −53.9%

£256k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 110 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.57). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (30 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 851 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jan–Mar Fresh horses: 4% Seamus Mullins: 2.7% from 330 First rides: 3.5% LTO winners: 13.3%

The read

The record is strongest at Warwick (12.5%, n=32) and Plumpton (7%, n=86) — all clear of the rider's 3.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.3% (n=30, Fair A/E 1.06). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 0.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.14 and −204.00 to a £1 stake over 217 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Seamus Mullins supplied 39% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (2.7%, A/E 0.43). The rider also read well on Heavy going (10%, n=70). The standout partner of the record was Avesomeofthat (IRE) — 5 wins from 16 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.5%+0.3

n=288 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −32.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.3%+10.1

n=30 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +8.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

4%+0.8

n=202 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −53.00

When favourite

23.1%

n=13 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −0.67

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

3.1%−0.1

n=813 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −451.67

Big fields · 14+ runners

0.5%−2.7

n=217 · A/E 0.14 · £1 −204.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−3.2

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 13.3% vs 3.2% · n=30

At Warwick 12.5% vs 3.2% · n=32

On Heavy going 10% vs 3.2% · n=70

With Robin Dickin 8.3% vs 3.2% · n=109

With C&D winners 8.5% vs 3.2% · n=47

At Plumpton 7% vs 3.2% · n=86

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 548 17 3.1% −333.17

Chase 213 8 3.8% −128.50

NH Flat 90 2 2.2% +3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 279 3 1.1% −246.00

Soft 191 6 3.1% −102.67

Good to Soft 190 7 3.7% −84.00

Good to Firm 108 4 3.7% −58.50

Heavy 70 7 10% +45.50

Standard (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Plumpton 86 6 7% −5.50

Fontwell 80 1 1.3% −71.00

Wincanton 67 2 3% +4.00

Towcester 62 3 4.8% −27.50

Exeter 49 0 0% −49.00

Chepstow 48 1 2.1% −22.00

Taunton 48 0 0% −48.00

Newton Abbot 43 2 4.7% −34.50

Hereford 33 0 0% −33.00

Warwick 32 4 12.5% +43.83

Worcester 31 0 0% −31.00

Southwell 28 0 0% −28.00

Kempton 26 1 3.8% −20.00

Huntingdon 25 2 8% +5.00

Stratford 23 1 4.3% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 397 13 3.3% −256.17

Class 5 263 10 3.8% −62.50

Class 3 84 3 3.6% −41.00

Class 6 66 0 0% −66.00

Class 1 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 2 20 1 5% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 25 3 12% 0.62 −12.67

2nd–3rd fav 98 10 10.2% 0.67 −40.00

4th–6th fav 242 4 1.7% 0.26 −204.00

7th+ in betting 486 10 2.1% 0.81 −202.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

76.6% completed · 761 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 213 61.5% 16 9 55 1 1

Hurdle 548 82.5% 10 9 72 1 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tom O'Tara (GB) 18 2 7 7 Jul 13

Forest Rhythm (IRE) 18 0 3 31 Oct 11

Playing With Fire (IRE) 13 2 5 18 Jun 14

Sapphire Rouge (IRE) 13 0 5 5 Jan 13

Hill Forts Gloria (IRE) 13 0 1 31 Jul 12

Killing Me Softly (GB) 13 0 2 26 Jun 12

Fergall (IRE) 11 3 6 31 Jul 14

Generous Bob (GB) 11 0 1 29 Jul 14

Acosta (GB) 11 0 4 21 Apr 14

Just Standeese (IRE) 11 0 2 12 Apr 09

Mistified (IRE) 11 0 1 26 Oct 08

Warsaw Pact (IRE) 10 0 3 18 Oct 12

The 60 most-raced of 328 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

555350030222

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSeamus Mullins

39% of all rides
2.7% SR · A/E 0.43

TrainerRWSR£1

Seamus Mullins 330 9 2.7% −182.50

Robin Dickin 109 9 8.3% +29.33

Brian Forsey 53 1 1.9% −44.00

Dr Jeremy Naylor 43 0 0% −43.00

Caroline Keevil 38 2 5.3% +7.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£642k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

See You Sometime (GB) — United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase Ascot · Oct 2006 · Class 2

£61,970

Fergall (IRE) — totepool Sussex Champion Hurdle (Handicap) Plumpton · Apr 2014 · Class 2

£19,494

Rio De Janeiro (IRE) — Peter Winfield 'Let's Go Round Again' Handicap Hurdle Stratford · Feb 2007 · Class 2

£13,779

Notable horses

Avesomeofthat (IRE) Jockser (IRE) Fergall (IRE) Arabian Moon (IRE) Mistified (IRE) Tom O'Tara (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Great Palm (USA) 0% · 0–27

Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,946 runs since 2008 (256 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 9.9% from 262.

Alderbrook (GB) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).

Alflora (IRE) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,736 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Silver Patriarch (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,609 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.3% from 274. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 300.

Midnight Legend (GB) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,308 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,375 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,375 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 3 July 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Jul 15 Newton Abbot Too Trigger Happy (GB)T: Dr Jeremy Naylor Newtonabbotrace On Twitter Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 66/1

09 Jun 15 Fontwell What's For Tea (GB)T: Paddy Butler Follow Us On Twitter At starsports_bet Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 12 ran PU 66/1

10 May 15 Plumpton What's For Tea (GB)T: Paddy Butler Sophie Mellett 18th Birthday Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 40/1

10 Apr 15 Fontwell What's For Tea (GB)T: Paddy Butler bet365.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 7 ran 5th 66/1

06 Apr 15 Plumpton Inthejungle (IRE)T: Daniel O'Brien Try A Totequickpick Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 4/1

21 Mar 15 Fontwell What's For Tea (GB)T: Paddy Butler Challenge G4bfc To A Charity Match Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 66/1

11 Mar 15 Huntingdon Betsy Boo Boo (GB)T: Michael Roberts 32Red.com Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 9th 80/1

09 Mar 15 Plumpton Uranox (FR)T: Michael Roberts Aspen Finpro Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 10/1

09 Mar 15 Plumpton Brunette'sonly (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Aspen Finpro Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 5/1

09 Mar 15 Plumpton Flugzeug (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Aspen Insurance Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/2F

09 Mar 15 Plumpton Nouailhas (GB)T: Daniel O'Brien Bernard O'Brien Memorial Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 8/1

14 Feb 15 Wincanton Mogestic (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Bathwick Tyres Salisbury Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Soft · 17 ran 11th 25/1

12 Feb 15 Fontwell Mighty Mobb (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins 32RedSport.com 3/1 Mullins Cheltenham Win Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 4th 25/1

12 Feb 15 Fontwell Uranox (FR)T: Michael Roberts Ebf Stallions 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (qualifier)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 200/1

12 Feb 15 Fontwell Willy Be Lucky (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Huge Cheltenham Offer Now At 32RedSport.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 50/1

12 Jan 15 Plumpton Willy Be Lucky (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Tv Focus At Timeform.com Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Heavy · 6 ran 3rd 16/1

01 Jan 15 Exeter Padova (GB)T: Dr Jeremy Naylor Bathwick Tyres Plymouth Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 16th 100/1

21 Dec 14 Lingfield (AW) Too Trigger Happy (GB)T: Dr Jeremy Naylor Happy Christmas From Lingfield Park Standard Open NH Flat Race (AWT)Class 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 8th 50/1

17 Dec 14 Newbury Newtown Cross (IRE)T: Jimmy Fox Only 8 Sleeps Till Christmas Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 17 ran PU 66/1

14 Dec 14 Southwell Willy Be Lucky (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins 32red Casino Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Soft · 5 ran PU 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Wayne Kavanagh's strike rate?: Wayne Kavanagh has won 27 of 851 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Wayne Kavanagh do best at?: Warwick by strike rate: 4 wins from 32 rides (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Wayne Kavanagh ride most for?: Seamus Mullins, with 330 rides since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (2.7%).
What is Wayne Kavanagh's Fair A/E?: 0.57, from 850 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.