Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%+0.4
n=22 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −16.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat2913.4%−25.50
Hurdle1616.3%−10.00
NH Flat300%−3.00
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)2613.8%−22.50
Good1300%−13.00
Good to Soft5120%+1.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Soft200%−2.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)8112.5%−4.50
Chelmsford City (AW)800%−8.00
Plumpton600%−6.00
Southwell (AW)500%−5.00
Kempton (AW)500%−5.00
Uttoxeter400%−4.00
Fontwell4125%+2.00
Brighton300%−3.00
Stratford200%−2.00
Salisbury100%−1.00
Southwell100%−1.00
Huntingdon100%−1.00
Leicester100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 52214.5%−16.00
Class 62214.5%−18.50
Class 4500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav10220%1.20−0.50
4th–6th fav2000%0.00−20.00
7th+ in betting1600%0.00−16.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m2600%−26.00
1m – 1m1f10110%−6.50
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
2m1f – 2m4f5120%+1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222314.3%−19.50
20232613.8%−20.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4025%−30.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2328.7%−13.50
11-13 runners1600%−16.00
5-7 runners700%−7.00
14-16 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Marie Martin (5); 4 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
01100000017000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Snippetydoodah (GB) — 188bet Faller Refunds At Cheltenham Thursday Mares' Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Mar 2018 · Class 4
£5,588
Perfect Moment (IRE) — British Racing School Foundation Course Handicap Hurdle Fakenham · Dec 2019 · Class 4
£4,809
Perfect Moment (IRE) — Sculthorpe Mares' Handicap Hurdle Fakenham · Nov 2019 · Class 5
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,466 runs since 2008 (388 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15% from 227. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 184.
Kapgarde (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,598 runs since 2008 (721 horses).
Progeny have won 10.8% of 1,871 runs since 2008 (109 horses). Weakest on Good going: 7.7% from 260. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.4% from 180.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,000 runs since 2008 (75 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.4% from 178.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 295 · newest first
The latest 50 of 295 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 March 2005 to 19 October 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Michael Roberts's strike rate?
Michael Roberts has won 2 of 49 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Michael Roberts's Fair A/E?
0.44, from 49 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Michael Roberts·SR 4.1%·A/E 0.44
KTB
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