Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.90).
Deterministic profile computed from 142 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=41, Fair A/E 0.56). The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (15.9%, n=44) and off a 15-30-day break (15.6%, n=45). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 3.2% over 31 runners, 7.4pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ascot Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2008, £37,386). The stable star of the record: Tapley (GB) — 7 wins from 37 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.9%−5.7
n=41 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −33.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
28.6%+18.0
n=7 · A/E 4.60 · £1 +18.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.6
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
14.3%
n=14 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −9.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.4%−0.2
n=48 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −28.63
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break3.2% vs 10.6% · n=31
Over 1m5f – 2m15.9% vs 10.6% · n=44
Off a 15-30-day break15.6% vs 10.6% · n=45
Over 2m1f – 2m4f7.3% vs 10.6% · n=41
In Hurdle races7.9% vs 10.6% · n=63
Over 2m5f – 3m13.3% vs 10.6% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase63711.1%−32.92
Hurdle6357.9%−43.50
NH Flat16318.8%+12.12
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft5658.9%−19.50
Good52611.5%−29.13
Soft3139.7%−15.92
Heavy2150%+1.25
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Plumpton2827.1%−21.25
Fontwell23313%+5.25
Southwell8112.5%−4.88
Market Rasen8112.5%−5.75
Kempton8225%+2.33
Huntingdon800%−8.00
Lingfield7114.3%−1.00
Fakenham5240%+2.75
Sandown4125%+3.50
Stratford4125%−0.50
Wincanton4125%−1.75
Cheltenham400%−4.00
Bangor-on-Dee300%−3.00
Newbury300%−3.00
Haydock300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 557712.3%−14.13
Class 443511.6%−23.67
Class 330310%−14.50
Class 2900%−9.00
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite16318.8%0.65−7.17
2nd–3rd fav39923.1%1.15−2.63
4th–6th fav3738.1%1.13−4.50
7th+ in betting5000%0.00−50.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m44715.9%−15.38
2m1f – 2m4f4137.3%−13.75
2m5f – 3m30413.3%−11.42
Over 3m2713.7%−23.75
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202228310.7%+0.25
202338615.8%−8.42
20243538.6%−24.13
20253226.3%−26.50
20269111.1%−5.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1101110%−63.92
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners47714.9%−15.13
8-10 runners4548.9%−17.92
11-13 runners3239.4%−16.50
14-16 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners4125%−0.75
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 17 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard, most often for Chris Gordon (2); 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
81524000···11175
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Missoula (IRE) — Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Ascot · Jun 2008 · Class 2
£37,386
Invicta Lake (IRE) — Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Sandown · Jan 2015 · Grade 3
£28,475
Aimigayle (GB) — E.B.F./TBA Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase Final Newbury · Mar 2009 · Listed
Progeny have won 12% of 2,271 runs since 2008 (284 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,249 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,249 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 17 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Suzy Smith's strike rate?
Suzy Smith has won 15 of 142 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Suzy Smith's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 142 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Suzy Smith·SR 10.6%·A/E 0.90
KTB
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