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Trainer profile

Brian Forsey

295 runners in the lifetime window · 21 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Mar 2021
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
13–295
Wins / Runs
4.4%
Strike rate
n=295
50 (17%)
Placed
0.73
Fair A/E
n=295 · 0.63 incl. margin
−168.50
£1 level stake
n=295 at SP · −57.1%
£74,102
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.73).

Deterministic profile computed from 295 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Wayne Kavanagh: 1.9% from 53
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=80, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −84.00 to a £1 stake over 155 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Wayne Kavanagh rode 18% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (1.9% vs 4.4%, A/E 0.38). The yard also read well in Class 6 (8.2%, n=98). The record read poorly in Class 4 — 0% over 78 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Barista (IRE) — 6 wins from 53 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.4
n=80 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −80.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
7.1%+2.7
n=14 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.9%−0.5
n=155 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −84.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 11.1% vs 4.4% · n=45
In Class 4 0% vs 4.4% · n=78
In Class 6 8.2% vs 4.4% · n=98
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 4.4% · n=44
With horses switching code 0% vs 4.4% · n=44
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 4.4% · n=38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 124 3 2.4% −90.25
Flat 121 8 6.6% −38.00
Chase 46 2 4.3% −36.25
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 82 3 3.7% −60.50
Good 67 1 1.5% −50.00
Good to Soft 50 1 2% −43.00
Soft 48 2 4.2% −28.00
Good to Firm 28 4 14.3% +19.75
Heavy 16 1 6.3% −12.25
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Taunton 41 2 4.9% −14.00
Chepstow 28 1 3.6% −17.00
Kempton (AW) 27 0 0% −27.00
Newton Abbot 26 1 3.8% −22.25
Exeter 25 0 0% −25.00
Wolverhampton 25 2 8% −11.00
Southwell (AW) 17 2 11.8% +0.00
Fontwell 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Wincanton 16 0 0% −16.00
Lingfield (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00
Worcester 10 0 0% −10.00
Hereford 7 0 0% −7.00
Leicester 7 2 28.6% +17.00
Bath 6 0 0% −6.00
Uttoxeter 5 1 20% −1.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 106 5 4.7% −62.50
Class 6 98 8 8.2% −15.00
Class 4 78 0 0% −78.00
Class 7 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 3 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 7 1 14.3% 0.70 −2.50
2nd–3rd fav 33 4 12.1% 0.79 −11.50
4th–6th fav 80 5 6.3% 0.80 −34.50
7th+ in betting 175 3 1.7% 0.60 −120.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Barista (IRE)from Mick Channon 53 6 14 16 Aug 18
Solitary Palm (IRE)from A Bateman 40 2 7 30 Sep 13
Aureate (GB)from Brian Ellison 38 2 7 27 Dec 14
Dropzone (USA)from Richard Lee 33 1 10 21 Sep 20
Killing Me Softly (GB)from John Gallagher 25 0 5 26 Jun 12
Black Draft (GB)from Jean-Rene Auvray 13 0 2 3 May 10
Follow The Master (GB) 12 0 1 2 Mar 17
Butterfield (IRE)from Tony Carroll · then Liz Chatfield 11 2 3 31 Mar 21
Runaiocht (IRE)from Paul Burgoyne 11 0 0 17 Feb 20
Softly Killing Me (GB)from John Gallagher 11 0 0 20 Dec 11
Eddies Pearl (IRE)from Eoin Griffin 10 0 0 29 Aug 19
Lazy But Lively (IRE)from Roger Fisher 9 0 1 8 Nov 09
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 21 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Gallagher (2) and Paul Burgoyne (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
40334001185311
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderWayne Kavanagh
18% of all rides
1.9% SR · A/E 0.38
RiderRWSR£1
Wayne Kavanagh 53 1 1.9% −44.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
15
Archived wins
£80,435
Prize money
2016
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Dropzone (USA) — Kings College Taunton Handicap Hurdle Taunton · Dec 2016 · Class 5
£3,899
Lazy But Lively (IRE) — Jenkinsons Caterers For Racing Entertaining Handicap Chase Uttoxeter · Nov 2007 · Class 5
£3,253
Barista (IRE) — Bet toteexacta At betfred.com Handicap (Div 1) Salisbury · Aug 2017 · Class 6
£3,235
Notable horses
Barista (IRE) Solitary Palm (IRE) Aureate (GB) Lazy But Lively (IRE) Butterfield (IRE) Dropzone (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Titus Livius (FR) 11.3% · 6–53
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,080 runs since 2008 (132 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.5% from 157.
Great Palm (USA) 5% · 2–40
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,946 runs since 2008 (256 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 9.9% from 262.
Jade Robbery (USA) 5.3% · 2–38
Progeny have won 11.4% of 404 runs since 2008 (27 horses).
Smart Strike (CAN) 3% · 1–33
Progeny have won 12.7% of 1,222 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 192. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.3% from 150. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 16.3% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.7% from 165.
Kingsinger (IRE) 0% · 0–25
Progeny have won 7.9% of 63 runs since 2008 (5 horses).
Josr Algarhoud (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,548 runs since 2008 (146 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 308 · newest first

The latest 50 of 308 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 February 2005 to 31 March 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Mar 21 Kempton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Liam Keniry Bet At Racing TV Classified StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 9th 40/1
04 Mar 21 Southwell (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Read Katie Walsh On Betway Insider HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 28/1
31 Jan 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Liam Keniry Heed Your Hunch At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 50/1
24 Jan 21 Lingfield (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Hollie Doyle Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 18/1
15 Dec 20 Wincanton Kerry's Boy (IRE)J: Rex Dingle Every Race Live On Racing TV Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 10 ran PU 40/1
28 Oct 20 Taunton Kerry's Boy (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Porter Dodson Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good To Firm · 12 ran PU 200/1
21 Sep 20 Warwick Dropzone (USA)J: Rex Dingle Get Daily Tips At racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 17 ran PU 50/1
18 Aug 20 Fontwell Dropzone (USA)J: Rex Dingle Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 19f · Good · 10 ran 4th 50/1
01 Aug 20 Chepstow Dropzone (USA)J: Eoin Walsh Patent Paradise At valuerater.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 10th 100/1
17 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) Runaiocht (IRE)J: Liam Keniry Join Racing TV Now Classified StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 11th 66/1
10 Feb 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Runaiocht (IRE)J: David Probert Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 150/1
29 Jan 20 Kempton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Every Race Live On Racing TV HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 7th 8/1
10 Jan 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Betway HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 7/2J
19 Dec 19 Wolverhampton Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Betway Casino HandicapClass 6 · 14f · 11 ran 1st 17/2
12 Dec 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Thomas Greatrex Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 5/1
30 Nov 19 Lingfield (AW) Runaiocht (IRE)J: R P Walsh Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 33/1
05 Nov 19 Kempton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh 100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 7th 14/1
19 Oct 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Butterfield (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Aston University Invades HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 33/1
30 Sep 19 Bath Butterfield (IRE)J: Hollie Doyle Foot Anstey Supporting Empire Fighting Chance HandicapClass 6 · 13f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 9th 16/1
29 Aug 19 Fontwell Eddies Pearl (IRE)J: James Best Intandem 2019 Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran PU 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brian Forsey's strike rate?
Brian Forsey has won 13 of 295 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brian Forsey do best at?
Taunton by strike rate: 2 wins from 41 runners (4.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Brian Forsey?
Wayne Kavanagh, with 53 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.9%).
What is Brian Forsey's Fair A/E?
0.73, from 295 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).