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Trainer profile

Paddy Butler

206 runners in the last 5 seasons · 33 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
7–206
Wins / Runs
3.4%
Strike rate
n=206
15 (7%)
Placed
1.19
Fair A/E
n=206 · 1.01 incl. margin
−48.62
£1 level stake
n=206 at SP · −23.6%
£51,642
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.19).

Deterministic profile computed from 206 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read

It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (0% over 42 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (9.5%, n=42) and on Good to Soft going (9.7%, n=31). The record reads poorly on Good going — 0% over 58 runners, 3.4pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Estibdaad (IRE) — 7 wins from 69 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.2%−0.2
n=63 · A/E 2.07 · £1 +67.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.8%+1.4
n=21 · A/E 2.65 · £1 +80.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.4
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +0.88
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3%−0.4
n=100 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −62.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 9.5% vs 3.4% · n=42
On Good to Soft going 9.7% vs 3.4% · n=31
Off a 15-30-day break 7.5% vs 3.4% · n=67
On Good going 0% vs 3.4% · n=58
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 3.4% · n=45
At Lingfield (AW) 0% vs 3.4% · n=42
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 119 4 3.4% −70.87
Hurdle 74 3 4.1% +35.25
Chase 8 0 0% −8.00
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 78 1 1.3% −49.00
Good 58 0 0% −58.00
Good to Soft 31 3 9.7% +85.88
Soft 25 3 12% −13.50
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW) 42 0 0% −42.00
Plumpton 35 2 5.7% +69.25
Fontwell 26 0 0% −26.00
Lingfield 23 0 0% −23.00
Kempton (AW) 21 0 0% −21.00
Brighton 17 0 0% −17.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 10 1 10% +19.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Windsor 4 0 0% −4.00
Bath 3 2 66.7% +3.13
Kempton 3 0 0% −3.00
Epsom Downs 2 0 0% −2.00
Chepstow 2 0 0% −2.00
Huntingdon 2 0 0% −2.00
Fakenham 1 1 100% +4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 96 4 4.2% −47.87
Class 5 84 3 3.6% +25.25
Class 4 24 0 0% −24.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 1 50% 1.50 +0.88
2nd–3rd fav 8 3 37.5% 2.05 +3.50
4th–6th fav 36 1 2.8% 0.66 −23.00
7th+ in betting 160 2 1.3% 0.89 −30.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mi Sueno (IRE)from Peter John Flood · then David Brace 20 2 3 11 Nov 25
Dubai Immo (IRE)from William Stone 19 1 1 11 Aug 26
Engaging Sam (GB) 17 0 1 8 Apr 26
Glorious Mist (IRE)then Michelle Bryant 16 0 1 28 Aug 26
Senseofentitlement (IRE)from David O'Meara 15 0 0 27 Aug 26
Reel Power (GB)from Murty McGrath 12 0 1 18 Jun 26
Martin Spirit (IRE)from Francois Nicolle · then Adam West 11 0 2 18 Dec 23
Rupert The Prince (IRE)then Rebecca Menzies 10 3 5 9 Oct 25
Poppyequiano (GB) 10 0 0 20 Jun 24
Star Of Sussex (FR)from Gary Moore 7 0 0 7 Jun 25
Vision Clear (GER)from Gary Moore 7 0 0 13 Aug 23
Mercers (GB)from Peter Crate 7 0 0 22 Aug 22
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 33 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gary Moore (10) and Gary & Josh Moore (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
06640013011650
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Caoilin Quinn 19 1 5.3% −14.00
Marc Goldstein 18 1 5.6% +83.00
Rhys Clutterbuck 18 0 0% −18.00
Miss Michelle Bryant 13 0 0% −13.00
Jamie Moore 11 0 0% −11.00
Luke Scott 11 0 0% −11.00
Harry Kimber 10 0 0% −10.00
Georgia Dobie 10 0 0% −10.00
Miss Megan Trainor 9 0 0% −9.00
Ashley Lewis 7 1 14.3% +22.00
Grace McEntee 6 0 0% −6.00
Callum Hutchinson 6 0 0% −6.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
49
Archived wins
£298k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Geography (IRE) — Totesport Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Feb 2005 · Class 3
£6,841
Estibdaad (IRE) — Bet Toteplacepot Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Jun 2015 · Class 5
£4,528
El Hageb Rose (FR) — Ultimate Jumps Guide On Attheraces.com/jumps Handicap Hurdle Plumpton · Nov 2022 · Class 5
£4,248
Notable horses
Estibdaad (IRE) Mercers (GB) Wondersobright (IRE) Geography (IRE) Curragh Dancer (FR) Rupert The Prince (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,562 runs since 2008 (871 horses).
The Gurkha (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,022 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
Casamento (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,620 runs since 2008 (299 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 497. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.9% from 287.
Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
El Kabeir (USA) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,231 runs since 2008 (116 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 173. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 10.1% from 426. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.7% from 348.
Golden Horn (GB) 23.1% · 3–13
Progeny have won 13.8% of 3,732 runs since 2008 (345 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 161. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 232.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,561 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,561 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Plumpton Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Betty Chantler Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 250/1
20 Sep 26 Plumpton Merci Vieil Ami (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Bob George Powered By Mansell Mctaggart Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 5th 80/1
10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Master Of Puppets (FR)J: Jack Doughty Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 100/1
28 Aug 26 Fontwell Glorious Mist (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 5 ran 4th 80/1
27 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Senseofentitlement (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 200/1
11 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Compare Licenced Betting Sites gambling.com Classified StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 50/1
13 Jul 26 Lingfield (AW) Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Ben Ffrench Davis attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 5 · 13f · Standard · 9 ran PU 400/1
18 Jun 26 Lingfield Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Jack Dace Free Tips At chracingclub.com HandicapClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 150/1
18 Jun 26 Lingfield Reel Power (GB)J: Tom Queally Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 9th 100/1
18 Jun 26 Lingfield Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Tom Queally Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 7th 66/1
05 Jun 26 Goodwood Love Is Golden (IRE)J: Seamus Cronin Goodwood Horseracing Club Membership Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 80/1
24 May 26 Fontwell Glorious Mist (IRE)J: Marc Goldstein Southcoast Homecare Excellence In Care Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 6 ran F 40/1
19 May 26 Lingfield Reel Power (GB)J: Jason Watson Simon Duggan The Bad Ama Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 40/1
19 May 26 Lingfield Senseofentitlement (IRE)J: Jason Watson Simon Duggan The Bad Ama Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 66/1
19 Apr 26 Plumpton Fascinating Lips (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston Diane And Harry's Plumpton Annual Box Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 150/1
08 Apr 26 Kempton (AW) Dubai Immo (IRE)J: Rose Dawes Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 33/1
08 Apr 26 Fontwell Engaging Sam (GB)J: Caoilin Quinn Southern Contract Lifting Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran UR 8/1
06 Apr 26 Plumpton Fascinating Lips (IRE)J: Dylan Johnston Gordon And Angela Ashdown Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran PU 80/1
25 Mar 26 Kempton (AW) Senseofentitlement (IRE)J: Jason Watson Virgin Bet Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 5th 150/1
23 Feb 26 Plumpton Engaging Sam (GB)J: Caoilin Quinn Jolly Sportsman Supports Jamie's Farm Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paddy Butler's strike rate?
Paddy Butler has won 7 of 206 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Butler do best at?
Plumpton by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 runners (5.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Paddy Butler in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paddy Butler's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 206 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).