1:20 Gowran Park
This Listed hurdle at Gowran Park over two miles and a furlong on yielding to soft ground brings together a compact but high-class field of six. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top weight in Gaucher on 73 while the remainder cluster between 52 and 59, underlining that this is very much a race for the principals to fight out. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position is likely to be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium that it will be a steadily-run, tactical contest. Every horse in the field is rated as a held-up type who usually produces its effort late, so the race is expected to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is which of these closers can best navigate the lack of early pace and deliver their challenge at the right moment on this yielding to soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gaucher KTB Selection73/100
Gaucher is a high-class performer with strong recent form including a fourth in a top race last time out. He steps up in trip today having already won three times over this distance from twelve attempts though his only run on this ground was a placing. The selection is in the care of Willie Mullins who has a 23% strike rate at Gowran Park from 1070 runs and is ridden by Paul Townend who matches that figure from 341 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has an official rating of 150 and recent form figures of 4/451-. As the KTB Selection he holds the highest Fit rating of 73 and looks to have the class and connections to prevail in what should be a steadily-run affair.
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2El Cairos59/100
El Cairos is a high-class performer who has already won twice at this trip from only eight starts and arrives with strong recent form including a win and a fourth at this level. Gordon Elliott has an 11% strike rate here from 624 runs while Jack Kennedy sits on 14% from 140 rides. The horse has never run on yielding to soft ground and makes its first appearance at Gowran Park today. Rated 143 officially with form figures of F154-7, he is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. His KTB Fit rating of 59 places him second in the numbers and he must be respected as a danger if the ground does not prove against him.
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3Samui53/100
Samui is a high-class performer with solid recent form including a pair of placed efforts this season. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from twelve starts though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Trainer Gordon Elliott records an 11% strike rate from 624 runs at Gowran while jockey Danny Gilligan is 9% from 45 rides here. With an official rating of 131 and recent form figures of 707/25, he is yet another held-up type who produces his effort late. His KTB Fit rating of 53 keeps him in the mix though the ground question adds a layer of uncertainty.
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4Balko d'Ange52/100
Balko d'Ange is a high-class performer with strong ratings and race history behind him. He has won on yielding to soft ground and at today's trip, though his recent form has been patchy. The trainer Philip Fenton holds a 7% strike rate from 96 runs at Gowran while the jockey Brian Hayes is 4% from 193 rides here. Rated 129 officially with form figures of 3F6F0-, he is usually held up though with only medium confidence attached to that run-style. His KTB Fit rating of 52 is the lowest of the four principals but the ground and trip positives cannot be ignored.
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5Mister Pessimistic52/100
Mister Pessimistic is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins at this trip from four attempts. He drops back in trip today having last run over further and looks to have the ability to make his presence felt. Henry de Bromhead has a 13% strike rate here from 528 runs while the jockey Darragh O'Keeffe is operating at 8% from 131 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with form figures of 11698-, he is another held-up type.
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6Ebony King52/100
Ebony King is a high-class performer with a strong recent record that includes two wins and a second from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance on one of his two attempts at it. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 322 runs at Gowran while the jockey matches that modest 8% from 37 rides here. Placed once from one run on yielding to soft, his form figures read 11F2-.
KTB verdict
Gaucher stands out as the KTB Selection. A high-class performer with strong recent form including a fourth in a top race last time, he has already won three times over this distance and is in the hands of the powerful Mullins-Townend combination who both operate at 23% at Gowran Park. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race should suit his usual held-up style. El Cairos is the most obvious danger on the strength of his wins at this trip and recent form at this level, though the yielding to soft ground is an unknown. Samui and Balko d'Ange add further depth while the two outsiders cannot be entirely dismissed on their own merits.
KTB Selection Gaucher
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven on yielding to soft ground?
Gaucher has been placed once from one run on yielding to soft while Balko d'Ange has won once from one run on the surface. Ebony King has been placed once from one run on yielding to soft. El Cairos, Samui and Mister Pessimistic are unproven on the ground.
How many of these runners have course form at Gowran Park?
None of the six runners have course form on record at Gowran Park.
What is the highest official rating in the race?
Gaucher has the highest official rating of 150.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park in this field?
W. P. Mullins has a 23% strike rate at Gowran Park from 1070 runs.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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